
Hi traders! Value trader is back.
In this artice I will share with you some robust principles for trading inside a rotational market - I use them on a regular basis in my own trading. There’s nothing new about the fact that around 70% of entire trading activity occurs within a trading range (it concern currency market, of course - for commodities and stocks distribution is pretty different). Well, it doesn’t mean that the only way to obtain 80% of winning trades is to fade the price action. But it means that to trade successfully in rotational market, trader has to know the mechanics of rotational market.
How one can identify trading range? Some traders do very simple thing - they connect extremes between each other and make conclusion that they know where ”border” of a trading range is.
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But this way can be misleading - how do you know that any taken extreme is important and will not be renewed? According to my experience, it’s much easier to identify rotational center than border of the trading range.
Rotational center:
The best way to describe rotational center is to think of a simple moving average. Price gets back ro average, then moves away from it. Volatilty of swings to both directions tends to be similar:
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But moving average may not be very accurate in real trading, because it performs well only in slow market with low volatility. In other circumstances it will lean to price, leaving trader confused about location of rotational center.
In my trading, I use several clues, that help me know that I identify rotational center correctly. They are: “Emply candlesticks”, “Low volatility areas”, “Rail formations” and simple price probes. (I use M30 chart in my analysis, you should adapt principles shown below to your timeframe).
Empty candlesticks:
If I see candlestick with very elongated candlestick, I expect rotational center to occur somewhere within the body of that candlestick.
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Rail formations:
The same thing is with rail formations. If I see 2 candlesticks located close to each other, I expect rotational center to be located within this formation.
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Low volatility areas:
And the most important clue is area with extremely low volatility. On my preferred timeframe (M30) it is represented with sequence of several “doji” candlesticks (having very small bodies):
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When I combine all clues together, I can get the idea of rotational center. And in many cases, it is not overlapping with moving average, that is, lagging indicator by its nature:
P.S. I will keep this thread closed to comments, until description will be completed (to avoid questions, that are going to be covered later).
to be continued...