Understanding the cycle of a country's economic fundamentals - Page 3
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Thread: Understanding the cycle of a country's economic fundamentals

  1. #1
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    Lightbulb Understanding the cycle of a country's economic fundamentals

    In many post, I always press on my post that market always be moved by fundamental, technical analysis is useless if there is no fundamental. It is better to understand the whole economic fundamental by try to understanding the macroeconomics. By having an understanding of the causal relationship of the indicators of a country's economic indicators, we can see a complete picture of the economy. Understanding the cycle of a country's macroeconomic fundamentals help us to predict the interest of investors / traders to invest their funds in an economic region
    example:
    Rising unemployment could reduce the purchasing power of the people, on the other hand the decline in private consumption also means the decline in demand for both goods and services that result in lower prices and so on
    Let us discuss the cycle of economic fundamentals that I have outlined

    how do you print screen
    1. Look carefully at the picture above
    2. Observe the history data of the previous month indicator. Focus on one full month of data (date 1-30)
    3. Record the results of economic data indicators on the image cycles
    4. On that note the green color in the event of an increase / strengthening and mark in red if there is a decrease / weakening
    5. Once all the data is complete then do analysis linkages between these macro economic data. Do not forget to make it in the form of a resume analysis
    6. The more practice you will more easily understand the macro-economy that occurred in the forex market
    7. Once you are familiar with Macroeconomic Fundamentals cycle analysis of a modern state, then you can perform the analysis in the next month

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  2. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by jemmy11 View Post
    I do agree with you totally .and ai may note that the most difficult to us of all the news on the calendar the conferences and letters or speeches of the famous peronalities . like jannet yellen , mark carny Poloz ...etc . here we need some site to tell us what is said now word by word or directly laos there are some results comes contrary the expects . we have to use the cautions with the news
    In intrepeting the spoken and press release the news from the public figure, just few trader can understand the news. In my experience in intepreting the SNB Swiss National Bank, I have no idea about the press release by SNB, but the effect on the market is very high.
    Actaully the news in forex trading is very complex and news have many relationship with other news

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  3. #22
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    Public Sentiment
    Survey of University Michigan
    Is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. Is an indicator of consumer confidence that the most attention.
    Consumer confidence is an important indicator for the business cycle because it presents important information about consumers' assessment of current conditions and future expectations.

    Survey data collected by posting questionnaires to 5,000 households across the country as yangmewakili sample, approximately 3,500 of them responded. The questionnaire contains five questions: (1) rating of business conditions in the household environment, (2) rating business conditions in six months, (3) the availability of field
    work in the household environment, (4) the availability of jobs in six months, and (5) family income in six months.

    Consumer Confidence is closely related to the level of unemployment, inflation, and real income. Generally, high consumer confidence if low unemployment and high GDP growth rates.

    Financial markets translate the increased number of this index as an indication of the increase in the level of consumer spending. The high level of expenditure in turn could trigger inflation.

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  4. #23
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    Public Sentiment
    Conference Board Investment (CBI) Survery
    Organization of the biggest employers in the UK, focusing on creating maintain ideal conditions for optimum competition and prosperity for all. CBI survey published each month and four months of the assessment in the service sector and manufacturing past, current, and future. The resulting index shows the respondents' views on various things such as output, sales, pricing, investment, and demand for exports / imports.

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  5. #24
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    Employee
    Weekly Jobless Claim
    Is the average weekly number of new claims for unemployment benefits. These data provide a report that up-to-date, though too often wrongly, about the trend of the economy, with an increase (decrease) in this data could potentially indicate the occurrence of a slowing (accelerating) the growth rate of labor.

    Due to be released weekly, this data can be very sensitive and volatile. Analysts prefer moving average per 4 weeks of this data to obtain more accurate results.

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  6. #25
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    Employee
    Non-farm payrolls
    A data reported total wages paid to US employment, outside government employees, employees in every household, employees who work in NGOs or non-profit organizations or non-profit and farm laborers. A report released earlier this month every form of comparison between the weekly wage paid to the Non-Farm Payroll component of the total wages paid to all workers. NFP reflects the condition of the commercial and industrial sectors. The higher value means the higher the rate of economic growth of the country.

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  7. #26
    Trader strobstrob's Avatar
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    So usefull thread. It would be nice if contributor can revive it. For example today we have very poor NFP reading but unemployment droped too. That is kind of paradox but market make a choice to belive in poor NFP and USD sinks abroad. Some kind of strange and rare aberation . My personal opinion is that Big Boys (funds, banks, market makers) used poor NFP number just to trick wide range of traders and make false USD drop move. It will fade away in next few days.

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    Last edited by strobstrob; 06-05-2016 at 10:55 AM.

  8. #27
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    Employee
    Unemployment Rate
    Unemployment Rate usually exist between the data compiled in the unemployment report. And the definition of the Unemployment Rate is the rate of unemployment in the region. This data released monthly in each country in the forex calendar.
    Unemployment is when people are not working or looking for work, when they are in active age (the age of the labor force starts from the age of 16 years and above) and is still able to work. Levels of unemployment is a measure of the prevalence of which is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by all individuals currently in the labor force.

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  9. #28
    Trader Silhouette's Avatar
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    All of this are too complicated for me to learn and remember. I think I've made a great choice to become a technical analysis trader and I prefer to understand market patterns and indicators better than reading many stuffs like this one and related them each other. I'm not so good in theory and prefer with calculation and that's way rational to me. I think I just need to read market economic calendar than understand all this cycle.

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    rules made to be followed, not to be broken

  10. #29
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    [lang=ar]so good diagram of the cycle fro the ecnomic system , and this can help us know the more about the market and how the prices moves from one time to another period of the effective ways . also this may help the ways for effectiving the general results fro the trading in away which may prevent us from losses[/lang]

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  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Silhouette View Post
    All of this are too complicated for me to learn and remember. I think I've made a great choice to become a technical analysis trader and I prefer to understand market patterns and indicators better than reading many stuffs like this one and related them each other. I'm not so good in theory and prefer with calculation and that's way rational to me. I think I just need to read market economic calendar than understand all this cycle.
    Just what I have in mind to say. I mean, why should I go through all these before I can rally get to trade profitably, whereas there is the strategy that has to do with support and resistance trading that I just have to learn and then I get to be able to use the support and resistance to trade. Apparently, quite more easier to use the calendar for the news. Simple.

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