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    Japanese Yen

    The yen rose from near its weakest level against the dollar since June 2010 after the Bank of Japan (8301) said it will conduct open-ended asset purchases from 2014, disappointing investors who expected bolder action now.

    Japan’s currency advanced at least 0.2 percent against all of its 16 major counterparts after the BOJ said it will buy about 13 trillion yen ($146.6 billion) in assets per month from January 2014 and as it set a 2 percent inflation target. The euro rose for the first time in three days versus the dollar after German investor confidence in January increased to the highest in 2 1/2 years, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is gathering momentum.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-21/yen-snaps-rally-from-2-1-2-year-low-before-boj-policy-decision.html

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    Nomura Securities Co. reduced its forecasts for the yen. Japan’s biggest brokerage estimated the yen will end 2013 at 93 per dollar from a previous estimate of 90, while it will be at 95 in June from 90 previously.
    “It’s becoming clear that powerful monetary easing by the BOJ under Kuroda would support yen weakness,” Yunosuke Ikeda, Nomura’s head of foreign-exchange strategy, wrote in a report today. “Overseas expectations for Abenomics is high.”
    Japan’s currency has depreciated 1.4 percent in the past week, the worst performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/euro-trades-near-almost-three-month-low-before-ecb-meeting.html

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    The yen weakened versus most of its 16 major counterparts after Japan’s Cabinet Office said machine orders fell 13.1 percent in January, exceeding the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey for a 1.7 percent decline.

    Haruhiko Kuroda, the nominee for central bank governor, told Japanese lawmakers today the central bank should consider buying large amounts of longer-maturity debt to achieve its 2 percent inflation target as soon as possible. The yen won’t weaken forever amid expectations for more easing, he said.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-10/dollar-approaches-3-1-2-year-high-on-u-s-growth-pickup.html

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    The yen touched a 3 1/2-year low as Bank of Japan (8301) deputy governor nominee Kikuo Iwata said decisive monetary easing is needed. The currency trimmed earlier declines as Asian stocks slid, boosting demand for refuge assets.

    “Expectations are running ahead, and they will eventually peel off,” said Masashi Murata, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “We’re unlikely to see anything surprising anytime soon, even after the BOJ’s new leadership is installed, and that will give a catalyst to buy the yen.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-11/yen-drops-to-3-1-2-year-low-before-boj-releases-minutes.html

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    The yen climbed against all major peers as a lack of unity among Japanese lawmakers for the government’s picks to run the Bank of Japan (8301) damped expectations for accelerated monetary easing.

    Bullish bets on the yen in the options market climbed to a nine-month high after Japan’s largest opposition party said it would vote against BOJ deputy governor nominee Kikuo Iwata, an advocate of quantitative easing since the 1990s. Demand for the dollar was supported before U.S. data today that may show retail sales rose. New Zealand’s currency fell before the nation’s central bank sets monetary policy tomorrow.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/yen-rises-before-japan-opposition-announces-boj-nominee-stance.html

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    The yen fell 0.3 percent to 96.40 per dollar at 8:15 a.m. in London after strengthening as much as 0.4 percent. Japan’s currency declined 0.3 percent to 124.98 per euro.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/yen-weakens-against-dollar-declines-0-3-percent-to-96-40.html

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    Japan’s currency may weaken to 110 or less against the dollar over 18 months, Jim O’Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
    “In order for us to get that next leg of the yen, it’s going to require the U.S. economy to do so well that the Fed starts to change its timing for some exiting of its QE,” he said, referring to the central bank’s quantitative easing program of asset purchases.
    The upper house of Japan’s parliament today confirmed Haruhiko Kuroda as the central bank governor along with Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso as his deputies. The vote ushers in a new central bank leadership team amid market expectations for more monetary stimulus.
    “For now, there is probably still a further downside risk to the yen,” said Mitul Kotecha, the global head of foreign- exchange strategy in Hong Kong at Credit Agricole SA. (ACA) There are expectations that the new BOJ leaders may try to “prove themselves as introducing more aggressive steps.”

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-14/dollar-remains-lower-as-inflation-seen-no-threat-to-fed-stimulus.html

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    The yen weakened for the first time in four days against the dollar before a change of leadership at the Bank of Japan (8301) tomorrow amid expectations for expanded monetary easing.

    The Japanese currency declined versus most of its major peers as Asian stocks rebounded from yesterday’s biggest drop in more than seven months.

    “The government is aggressively pushing Japan out of deflation and that’s resulted in currency weakness,” said Calvin Tse, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at Morgan Stanley. New central bank leadership is “expected to engage in much more aggressive BOJ easing.”

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/euro-trades-near-year-low-before-cyprus-votes-on-deposits.html

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    Japanese financial markets were closed today for a national holiday.

    Fink forecast the yen will stabilize at 95 yen to 100 yen to the dollar this year.
    The U.S. currency weakened against the yen before the Federal Reserve ends a two-day meeting today amid speculation policy makers will decide to keep buying bonds to support economic growth. The Federal Open Market Committee will issue a statement and economic forecasts after ending its policy meeting, and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will brief reporters.
    “You’re beginning to more clearly probe to the downside in dollar-yen and that story continues into the Fed,” said Robert Rennie, the chief currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) “The cold hard reality is that the offshore environment is not really one where we can see a pick-up in outflows from Japan.”

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/euro-falls-toward-4-month-low-versus-dollar-drops-against-yen.html

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    The yen extended gains from yesterday when Haruhiko Kuroda failed to outline at his inaugural press conference as BOJ governor how he plans to achieve the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target, adopted at the urging of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
    The new central bank chief “was short on detail, disappointing the market,” David Croy, a Wellington-based researcher at ANZ National Bank Ltd. wrote in a note to clients today. “For the moment yen weakness appears mature.”
    Kuroda will appear before Japan’s parliament on March 26, ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Katsutoshi Kaneda said today.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/euro-trades-near-four-month-low-as-ecb-issues-deadline-to-cyprus.html

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    Yen Shorts
    The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the yen compared with those on an advance, so-called net shorts, was 79,993 in the period through March 19, according to figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That compares with a three-month high of 93,763 in the previous week.
    Expectations of additional stimulus have driven the yen down 18 percent in the past six months, the biggest decliner among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro has risen 3.3 percent, while the dollar has gained 2.1 percent.
    U.S. Commerce Department data this week will probably show orders for durable goods rebounded 3.9 percent in February from a 4.9 percent drop the month before, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the release tomorrow. Analysts in a separate poll predicted consumer spending gained 0.6 percent in the same period after growing 0.2 percent in January, ahead of the March 29 report.

    source_http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-24/euro-weakens-versus-dollar-as-cyprus-bailout-deadline-approaches.html

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