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  1. #1
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    AUD/USD Analysis

    AUD/USD – Drops to Multi-Year Low Near 0.85
    Wed, Nov 26 2014, 01:08 GMT

    The Australian dollar hasn’t had a great last week as it has dropped sharply and in the last 24 hours moved down to a new multi-year low near 0.85. To start this new week it rallied back above 0.8650 again before falling lower in the last couple of days. In the week prior the Australian dollar was able to rally higher and bounce off multi year lows around 0.8550 and in doing so has moved back within the previously well established trading range between 0.8650 and 0.88. Earlier last week the Australian dollar ran into the resistance level at 0.88 again which stood tall and sent prices lower again. A few weeks ago it fell sharply from above the resistance level at 0.88 back down to the support level of 0.8650 before crashing further to a new multi-year high near 0.8550. During the last couple of months the Australian dollar has done well to stop the bleeding and trade within this range after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and a then eight month low in the process. The resistance level at 0.88 remains a factor and is continuing to place downwards pressure on price, however more recently all eyes have turned on to the support level at 0.8650 to see if the Australian dollar can hold on and stay within reach again.

    Back at the beginning of September the Australian dollar showed some positive signs as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 however that all now seems a distant memory. The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.

    After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year.

    Abundant supply is driving commodity prices lower, but the good news is that Chinese demand for Australian resources will continue as its economy evolves, the Reserve Bank says. A dramatic increase in commodity exports from Australia and other countries has increased global supply, pushing commodity prices down, RBA head of economic analysis Alexandra Heath said. Her comments to the NSW Mining Industry and Suppliers Conference in Sydney on Friday came after the iron ore spot price this week fell to a fresh five year low of around $US70 per tonne. “Much of the fall in iron ore and coal prices we have seen over the past year or so is the result of increasing global supply, but recently there has also been some easing in demand associated with slower growth in Chinese steel production,” Dr Heath said. “The resulting fall in Australia’s terms of trade is expected to weigh on household income.” But while demand from China was slowing, it would continue to have a “huge appetite” for commodities of many kinds, she said. Dr Heath said China’s urbanisation process had some way further to run, meaning demand for commodities to build housing, infrastructure, utilities and public buildings.

    -http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/technical-analysis-forex/2014/11/26/

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    Last edited by Gamer; 12-22-2016 at 08:30 AM.

  2. #61
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    AUD / USD currently falls after US employment report bright and has fallen around 80 pips from 0.7845, the pair is currently trading at daily lows towards 0.7750. The US dollar is currently trading higher after US employment report better than expected at 295k new nonfarm payrolls in February and the unemployment rate at 5.5%. However, the participation rate fell to 62.8% from 62.9%, taking some light into the unemployment rate.

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    Currently, the AUD / USD flat at 0.7712, back to the green area. Aussie cut earlier losses and stable now awaiting fresh cues from the European session to the movement of the USD further. Also, the price of gold and copper continued higher Australian dollar support related resources. However, the increase in the Aussie may remain limited as the greenback continued to up widely with strong US payrolls figures.
    AUD / USD down to its lowest level since early February, as Chinese data over the weekend showed a large decline in imports, a negative factor for Australia, which is heavily dependent on trade in the world's second largest economy.

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    AUD / USD down from 0.7665 Currently, trade AUD / USD lower -0.69% in the four-week lows at 0.7646 level. Aussie fell in Asia after Australian business confidence in January erased last month, the RBA signaled that further rate cuts may be needed. Business Confidence Index National Australia Bank (NAB) fell to zero last month from 3 in January, while the NAB Business Conditions index stable at 2. The AUD / USD fell to its lowest level since early February, because the data IHP China over the weekend showed import prices down, a negative factor for Australia, which relies heavily on trade with the second largest economy in the world. In addition, the price of gold and copper were lower also adds to decrease the AUD / USD.

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    Australian dollar (AUD / USD) scored a record low since 2009 at the level of 0.76022 due to weak business confidence index released by the National Australia Bank on Tuesday. Business Confidence Index decreased from level 3 to zero in February 2015. This indicates that the RBA's policy rate cut by 25 basis points in the last month is still not able to increase the excitement and activity of Australian business. RBA expected to cut interest rates back in 2015 to support the Australian economy grew very slowly in the last quarter of 2014.

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    AUD / USD is in bearish condition. If the support breaks 0.76265, the Australian dollar is expected to continue to weaken to the range of 0.75592. As an alternative, consider the resistance 0.77018. If the pull-back occurs to the area, look for confirmation of a sell signal with a potential target in the range of 0.76265 - 0.75592. Be careful if the resistance 0.77018 breaks because it would change the intraday bias will be bullish and potentially lift the Australian dollar to the range 0.77771.

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    AUD / USD has snapped out of its orbit around USD 0.78 by spikes as US jobs data in February. The FOMC will help consolidate the bullish USD while the Australian calendar offers little distractions. However, with the AUD arguably not far above fair value, we are reluctant to be too aggressive on the negative side targets the AUD / USD, 0.75 observe more than one month, closed at around 0.77 this week.

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    AUD / USD is currently trading at 0.7642 with 0.7660 high and low 0.7612 .

    Markets are very sell AUD / USD has taken several requests for Aussie early in the week and moved up away from the support zone of 0.7610 / 20 with some early selling the greenback in the early weeks of Asia in Tokyo. There is very little coming from the calendar until the US session opened with the US Industrial Production and then the next day after the RBA minutes of the central bank's control over the situation when leaving interest rates unchanged

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    AUD / USD: While the long-term outlook for the AUD is still bearish, the current movement is clearly a consolidation phase that can last for a week or more. Only a breakthrough against the expected range 0.7550 / 0.7750 will indicate the beginning of a movement that is more sustainable medium-term

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    Our forecast that the rate in Australia will cut each to 1.5% and 3.0% this year, from 2.25% and 3.5% today, shows that bond yields in both countries to end this year lower than they are today, not higher

    Signs that the Fed rate hike closer may be made to strengthen the US dollar and the Australian dollar and New Zealand weakened. Aussie and Kiwi may not sharply lower as they occur during the year 2013, but we think that any decline will be maintained

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    Currently, trade AUD / USD lower -0.49% in the new session lows at 0.7735.

    AUD / USD swept the previous increase and decrease again because the Australian dollar can not follow more than 2% rise against the greenback on the dovish FOMC statement. In addition, the US dollar to recover more than half of the decline and get back barrier 98 as traders recorded an increase in sales of USD positions after the FOMC statement and followed by a press conference yesterday there are many surprises, which is reflected on the walls of the currency market.

    In addition, a strong recovery in the price of gold, silver and copper also failed to lift the Aussie, keep price increases.

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