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Thread: AUD/USD Analysis

  1. #1
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    AUD/USD Analysis

    AUD/USD – Drops to Multi-Year Low Near 0.85
    Wed, Nov 26 2014, 01:08 GMT

    The Australian dollar hasn’t had a great last week as it has dropped sharply and in the last 24 hours moved down to a new multi-year low near 0.85. To start this new week it rallied back above 0.8650 again before falling lower in the last couple of days. In the week prior the Australian dollar was able to rally higher and bounce off multi year lows around 0.8550 and in doing so has moved back within the previously well established trading range between 0.8650 and 0.88. Earlier last week the Australian dollar ran into the resistance level at 0.88 again which stood tall and sent prices lower again. A few weeks ago it fell sharply from above the resistance level at 0.88 back down to the support level of 0.8650 before crashing further to a new multi-year high near 0.8550. During the last couple of months the Australian dollar has done well to stop the bleeding and trade within this range after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and a then eight month low in the process. The resistance level at 0.88 remains a factor and is continuing to place downwards pressure on price, however more recently all eyes have turned on to the support level at 0.8650 to see if the Australian dollar can hold on and stay within reach again.

    Back at the beginning of September the Australian dollar showed some positive signs as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 however that all now seems a distant memory. The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.

    After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year.

    Abundant supply is driving commodity prices lower, but the good news is that Chinese demand for Australian resources will continue as its economy evolves, the Reserve Bank says. A dramatic increase in commodity exports from Australia and other countries has increased global supply, pushing commodity prices down, RBA head of economic analysis Alexandra Heath said. Her comments to the NSW Mining Industry and Suppliers Conference in Sydney on Friday came after the iron ore spot price this week fell to a fresh five year low of around $US70 per tonne. “Much of the fall in iron ore and coal prices we have seen over the past year or so is the result of increasing global supply, but recently there has also been some easing in demand associated with slower growth in Chinese steel production,” Dr Heath said. “The resulting fall in Australia’s terms of trade is expected to weigh on household income.” But while demand from China was slowing, it would continue to have a “huge appetite” for commodities of many kinds, she said. Dr Heath said China’s urbanisation process had some way further to run, meaning demand for commodities to build housing, infrastructure, utilities and public buildings.

    -http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/technical-analysis-forex/2014/11/26/

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    Last edited by Gamer; 12-22-2016 at 08:30 AM.

  2. #11
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    the pair is trading now at 0.8123 it may be regarded as aline of resistance on the intraday charts . as we can see on the h1 chart . but we may think of the long trade . or when we look at the daily chart we may notice that it is a line of support . we may take guard of the volatility of the end of the year . happens too many clashes and hits of the prices

    AUDUSD.mM30.png

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  3. #12
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    AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – December 26, 2014 Forecast

    The AUD/USD is trading slightly better with a limited range. There are no major economic reports today and many countries are on bank holiday so volume is expected to be below average. This trend may continue until January 1 with the exception of 1 or 2 expanded range days next week.

    source:
    http://www.fxempire.com/technical/te...2014-forecast/

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  4. #13
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    AUD/USD in a dominant bear trend - FXStreet

    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the AUD/USD maintains the flat stance consolidating around the 0.8100 level after having established a year low at 0.8087 last week.

    Key Quotes:

    “The pair has been trading in a tight 100 pips range last week and will likely remain limited also during the upcoming days, albeit the dominant bearish trend will likely prevail”.

    “Short term, the 1 hour chart shows a neutral stance, whilst the 4 hours chart shows the price below a bearish 20 SMA and indicators heading lower below their midlines, supporting the dominant bearish trend”.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...9-3215bfa5d8b6

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  5. #14
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    Dec 30 14 04:26 GMT

    No change in AUD/USD's outlook. Break of 0.8375 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish for a test on 0.7945/8066 key support zone. Though, break of 0.8375 will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8539 support turned resistance and above.

    In the bigger picture, recent development in AUD/USD suggests that it's building downside momentum and the fall from 1.1079 is accelerating again. Focus is now on 0.8066 key support level, 61.8% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.7945. Decisive break there will carry long term bearish implication and pave the way to long term fibonacci level at 0.7182 and below. On the upside, break of 0.9504 is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.

    source:
    http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0141230231934/

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  6. #15
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    AUDUSD Keeps Trading Lower

    AUDUSD keeps trading lower, now making wave 5) more extended and larger than firstly thought. We are looking for a potential drop down to around 0.8000 psychological level before pair could be looking for an important bullish reversal. However, any low in place can only be confirmed by a price action. In our case that means rally back above 0.8276.

    AUDUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis
    audusd+4h_20141229100026.png

    http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ell...er/2014/12/29/

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  7. #16
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    I have also given the bigger porportion on this AUDUSD pair. I hope this pair will go further to go down in bearish momentum. I have predict the bearish momentum sell on this pair since 2013. You can see my article in here I have capture my chart and I have found there are big momentum bearish trend, but I have no idea about entry point at this chart, the price is too far from the line

    image post

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  8. #17
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    AUD/USD breaks into fresh weekly highs

    AUD/USD has popped up to print a new weekly high at 0.8138, following a softer-than-expected Australian retail sales, and ahead of Chinese CPI.

    The next key level to the upside where offers should be stacked is found at 0.8145/50, level of intersection with a descending trendline coming off Dec 11 high. On the downside, immediate support lies now at 0.8120 and 0.81.

    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9cb17163-e3b6-4c09-aac3-61ed9728aa63

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  9. #18
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    AUD selling as Copper crashes

    Copper is crashing in Asia, down over 6.5%, building up on recent losses, with some AUD selling now noted.

    The 61.8 fibo of the post GFC upleg in copper is now being threatened, with plenty of stops reported right underneath. AUD/USD is currently trading down at 0.8155 after printing a session high of 0.8187 earlier on the day.
    (from_http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=f805f50a-d2a1-424c-98c6-1155bbf59035)

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  10. #19
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    Asia Recap: Aussie bought on impressive Aus jobs

    In an impressive turn of events from yesterday's Asian price action, where the Aussie was battered over 1 cent on copper prices sell-off, today's Asian session served a very different purpose, with accounts piling up Aussie Dollars on upbeat Aus jobs.

    The Aussie rose from sub 0.8140 levels all the way up to 0.8220, gunning through sizeable buy stop loss orders placed above both a Dec 31 2014 high and a 78.6% fib of the Jan 12-14 cycle down. After cleaning up the topside of the order board, the exchange rate retraced down to test bids along 0.8185/90, where fresh buying seems to be in crescendo.

    In terms of the Australian job figures, they were simply unbelievable numbers, with the employment change s.a. coming in at 37.4K, above forecasts (3.8K) in December, with the unemployment rate s.a. at 61% vs forecasts (6.3%). Fulltime employment rose from previous 1.8K to 41.6K, while part-time employment declined to -4.2K from previous 40.8K. Participation rate came in at 64.8%, above forecasts (64.7%).

    USD/JPY was also on recovery mode, breaching 117.50 resistance; bids were seen on the dip to retest the mentioned level, now officially a key intraday support heading into Europe, with the USD negative reaction to a disappointing US retail sales number fading as the Yen bull run feels quite overstretched after coming close to test 116.00 earlier on Wednesday. The Nikkei 225, up 1.1% heading into the close, acted as a supportive driver for Yen bears.

    Main headlines in Asia

    New Zealand Food Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.3% in December from previous -0.5%

    Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at -14.6% below forecasts (-5.8%) in November

    Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at 1.3% below forecasts (5%) in November

    Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (2.1%) in December: Actual (1.9%)

    Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (-0.3%) in December

    United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance above forecasts (10%) in December: Actual (11%)

    Australia publishes blockbuster jobs report

    New Zealand REINZ House Price Index (MoM): -1% (December) vs previous 3.3%

    China M2 Money Supply (YoY) below forecasts (12.5%) in December: Actual (12.2%)

    China New Loans below expectations (852.7B) in December: Actual (697.3B)
    from-http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=67c776bf-f66f-4ab6-99d2-ba865ee78cd9

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  11. #20
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    Oh, dear. Maybe it is better to me to upload my weekly chart on AUDUSD. The pair on this AUDUSD is very ambiguos. This pair is going to make reversal. But it seems the pair is moving in narrow range. AUDUSD waiting for European Central Bank to make interest rate decision.
    Please take a look my weekly chart below.
    Capture089.jpg

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