AUD/USD Analysis
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  1. #1

    AUD/USD Analysis

    AUD/USD – Drops to Multi-Year Low Near 0.85
    Wed, Nov 26 2014, 01:08 GMT

    The Australian dollar hasn’t had a great last week as it has dropped sharply and in the last 24 hours moved down to a new multi-year low near 0.85. To start this new week it rallied back above 0.8650 again before falling lower in the last couple of days. In the week prior the Australian dollar was able to rally higher and bounce off multi year lows around 0.8550 and in doing so has moved back within the previously well established trading range between 0.8650 and 0.88. Earlier last week the Australian dollar ran into the resistance level at 0.88 again which stood tall and sent prices lower again. A few weeks ago it fell sharply from above the resistance level at 0.88 back down to the support level of 0.8650 before crashing further to a new multi-year high near 0.8550. During the last couple of months the Australian dollar has done well to stop the bleeding and trade within this range after experiencing a sharp decline throughout September which saw it move from close to 0.94 down to below 0.8650 and a then eight month low in the process. The resistance level at 0.88 remains a factor and is continuing to place downwards pressure on price, however more recently all eyes have turned on to the support level at 0.8650 to see if the Australian dollar can hold on and stay within reach again.

    Back at the beginning of September the Australian dollar showed some positive signs as it surged higher again bouncing off support below 0.93 and reaching a new four week high around 0.94 however that all now seems a distant memory. The Australian dollar reached a three week high just shy of 0.9480 at the end of July after it enjoyed a solid period which saw it surge higher through the resistance level at 0.9425 to the three week around 0.9480, before easing back towards that level. The Australian dollar enjoyed a solid surge higher reaching a new eight month high above 0.95 at the end of June, only to return most of its gains in very quick time to finish out that week. Since the middle of June the Australian dollar has made repeated attempts to break through the resistance level around 0.9425, however despite its best efforts it was rejected every time as the key level continued to stand tall, even though it has allowed the small excursion to above 0.95.

    After the Australian dollar had enjoyed a solid surge in the first couple of weeks of June which returned it to the resistance level around 0.9425, it then fell sharply away from this level back to a one week low around 0.9330 before rallying higher yet again. Its recent surge higher to the resistance level around 0.9425 was after spending a couple of weeks at the end of May trading near and finding support at 0.9220. Throughout April and into May the Australian dollar drifted lower from resistance just below 0.95 after reaching a six month high in that area and down to the recent key level at 0.93 before falling lower. During this similar period the 0.93 level has become very significant as it has provided stiff resistance for some time. The Australian dollar appeared to be well settled around 0.93 which has illustrated the strong resurgence it has experienced throughout this year.

    Abundant supply is driving commodity prices lower, but the good news is that Chinese demand for Australian resources will continue as its economy evolves, the Reserve Bank says. A dramatic increase in commodity exports from Australia and other countries has increased global supply, pushing commodity prices down, RBA head of economic analysis Alexandra Heath said. Her comments to the NSW Mining Industry and Suppliers Conference in Sydney on Friday came after the iron ore spot price this week fell to a fresh five year low of around $US70 per tonne. “Much of the fall in iron ore and coal prices we have seen over the past year or so is the result of increasing global supply, but recently there has also been some easing in demand associated with slower growth in Chinese steel production,” Dr Heath said. “The resulting fall in Australia’s terms of trade is expected to weigh on household income.” But while demand from China was slowing, it would continue to have a “huge appetite” for commodities of many kinds, she said. Dr Heath said China’s urbanisation process had some way further to run, meaning demand for commodities to build housing, infrastructure, utilities and public buildings.

    Last edited by Gamer; 12-22-2016 at 08:30 AM.

  2. #2
    AUD/USD in the brink of collapse below 0.85
    Fri, Nov 28 2014, 04:18 GMT

    AUD/USD keeps pressing towards its bear trend low at 0.8480, last at 0.8494, after being unable to sustain the Capex-induced short squeeze seen on Thursday.

    With recent AUD spikes courtesy of a Chinese rate cut last week and better-than-expected Capex figures, both proving short-lived, the leverages community will probably be salivating to reset shorts at the right levels as the perception of negative sentiment towards the AUD expands.

    Technically, AUD/USD is the brink of collapse, with a break below 0.8480 exposing 0.8450 ahead of 0.84 round number, with fear beign that the pair is gradually shifting its focus from a 0.90-0.85 range to 0.85-0.80. On the topside, 0.8515/20 should be the first hurdle, followed by 0.8545/50 ahead of 0.8565/70.

  3. #3
    AUD/USD continues to test the committed bulls out marking new lows
    Mon, Dec 01 2014, 01:17 GMT

    down -0.94% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8484 and low at 0.8424.

    AUD/USD has suffered the first round of data to come in respect of its manufacturing business sector for November. While it continues to read above 50 and expand, the number was slightly disappointing respect to the expectations of 50.6 vs 50.3 actual.

    We now await the HSBC’s Manufacturing PMI results as the aussie continues to sank lower at time of writing, down on the day on the back of other events already that took place.

    Gold has been the main catalyst for the lower price and a stringer greenbacks is leading us into the start of the week. Gold (Spot: $1,250.20 and $1,142.60 the low) took the commodity currencies lower on the back of a no vote in the Swiss referendum where the SNB where voted against increasing their gold reserves.

  4. #4
    AUD/USD demand just isn't coming in any further

    AUD/USD is offered through the 0.85 handle again after a not very convincing attempt to the upside to close the bearish gap. The pair had climbed from the lows through 0.8435 and beyond 0.8520 resistance only to fail on a second bout of supply there. There just isn’t the demand of the Aussie in light of the volatility and risk sentiment despite some unwinding in the greenback.

    Up today we have the RBA where the Central Bank is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5% and building permits data that are likely to draw the attention. In respect of levels, the pair remains in negative territory and the longer-term downside indicators warn of territory below the 0.85 handle still with RSI only starting to approach oversold territory with further room to go.

    For the upside, further unwinding of the greenback may prevail as the week progresses ahead of Nonfarm payrolls as the main event on the docket and 0.8540 continues to remain as key resistance ahead of space to 0.8600 and more neutral territory.

  5. #5
    AUD/USD climbs to highs near 0.8540
    Tue, Dec 02 2014, 07:12 GMT

    AUD/USD boosted by RBA

    The AUD saw its demand boosted after the RBA left its monetary policy unchanged in today’s meeting, with the refi rate intact at 2.5%. The tone and communiqué of the central banks were almost a repetition from previous meetings, giving extra oxygen to the Australian dollar. Other data in Oz showed Building Permits rising 11.4% inter-month during October and the Current Account deficit shrinking to A$12.5 billion in Q3 from A$13.9 billion. “The current movement is likely part of a consolidation range. Expect sideway trading for today, likely between 0.8450 and 0.8530”, noted strategists at UOB Group.

    AUD/USD key levels

    At the moment the pair is advancing 0.25% at 0.8524 with the next resistance at 0.8533 (high Dec.1) followed by 0.8545 (high Nov.28) and then 0.8587 (10-d MA). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.8478 (hourly low Dec.1) would aim for 0.8417 (low Dec.1) and finally 0.8315 (low Jul1.2010).

  6. #6
    AUD/USD hits new low at 0.84 after Aus GDP miss
    Wed, Dec 03 2014, 00:36 GMT

    After threatening to make new multi-year lows on Tuesday, the AUD/USD is currently resuming its bear trend following worse-than-expected growth numbers out of Australia, with the QE QoQ coming at 0.3+vs 0.7% exp.

    With the data coming soft, Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts, wrote prior to the economic release: "Expect a quick test of 0.8400, a break of which would potentially see a steeper acceleration towards the June 2010 low at 0.8315 and then to the May 2010 lows at 0.8066."

    "As I said before, I think we are eventually heading a fair bit lower than that and still look for 0.6000, albeit a couple of years down the track. A monthly close back above the neckline, now at 0.8800 would invalidate that view, although this is beginning to look increasingly distant", Jim added.

  7. #7
    Australia: Further erosion of business confidence - NAB

    NAB’s Monthly Business Survey – November 2014

    "Last months spike in business conditions was again short-lived, pulling back towards long run average levels in November. Despite the drop, the overall trend is still looking much better than 12-18 months prior, while levels of capacity utilisation have continued to improve. Orders held up reasonably well, which reflects well on near-term demand. The fall in conditions was driven by all three components (sales, profits and employment), although the last remains the weakest, pointing to only very modest growth in employment – insufficient to prevent a further rise in the unemployment rate. But while last months spike was relatively broad based, the pull back in November was much more mixed across industries – concentrated in retail, manufacturing and service industries. We are yet to see any clear beneficiaries of the AUD depreciation."

    "Firms uncertainty over the outlook for their industries was reflected in a further erosion of business confidence. Confidence levels vary greatly across industries, although the spread narrowed considerably in the month. Services have been replaced with construction as the most optimistic. Other leading indicators are mixed. Forward orders maintained last months rise, but the ‘bellwether’ wholesale industry remains weak."

    "Softer commodities and labour market outlook mean we have changed our rate call to two cuts of 25 bp in March and August 2015, then on hold until late 2016. GDP forecasts cut reflecting weaker history and terms of trade: 2014/15 2.5% (was 2.9%); 2015/16 3.0% (was 3.2%). Unemployment rate now to peak at around 6¾% (was 6½%)."

  8. #8
    yes your are right audusd like some chance to make profit with market if traders make their trade with right point and they make success and they can not lose in trading so it is must for trader that he make success when he follow the market terms and trends,

  9. #9
    Greenback strength the predominant theme

    Australian Dollar:

    Whilst global stocks have rallied off the back of renewed investor confidence which surrounds the health of the world’s largest economy the Australian dollar by contrast has struggled over the past three days of trade weighed down by heightened rate forecasts across the United States. Having traded in a tight range of 0.8130 – 0.8172 over the past 24 hours when valued against its US Counterpart investors are now eyeing resistance at 0.8315 (July 2010 low), followed by support at 0.8107. In what’s shaping up as a quiet day ahead an empty domestic calendar should see liquidity levels remain low as we head into the Christmas break. Meanwhile this morning the Australian dollar buys 81.36 US Cents

    We expect a range today of 0.8110 – 0.8170

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    | Dec 23 14 05:37 GMT

    AUD/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8115; (P) 0.8143; (R1) 0.8162;

    Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment as the consolidation from 0.8106 temporary low might extend. But upside of recovery should be limited below 0.8375 resistance and bring another decline. Below 0.8106 will target 0.7945/8066 key support zone. However, break of 0.8375 will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8539 support turned resistance and above.

    In the bigger picture, recent development in AUD/USD suggests that it's building downside momentum and the fall from 1.1079 is accelerating again. Focus is now on 0.8066 key support level, 61.8% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.7945. Decisive break there will carry long term bearish implication and pave the way to long term fibonacci level at 0.7182 and below. On the upside, break of 0.9504 is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.


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