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Thread: EUR/USD Analysis

  1. #1
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    EUR/USD Analysis

    Hello moderator, I asked permission to create a new thread, about the analysis of the EUR / USD. I will first review the price movement on Friday, 21 November 2014. from technical analysis after prices break down pivot points, the price goes down in a large range of 190 pips. from fundamental analysis, this price movement is influenced by Draghi speak

    European Central Bank President said the ECB is ready to act in a timely manner if low inflation persists and expressed a sense of urgency that triggered speculation the bank could announce further easing measures as early as next December, with some analysts expecting a full-blown quantitative easing program.

    Technically speaking, weekly charts show indicators in oversold levels and EUR/USD close to its 2014 low. Thus, some consolidation should be expected before another leg lower, but fundamental factors and further speculation of ECB easing measures could easily send the pair to fresh multi-month lows ahead of the December 4 policy meeting. Immediate target is seen at the 1.2290 zone (where several 2012 weekly lows converge) en route to 1.2100.

    Meanwhile, EUR/USD needs to regain the 1.2560 area to ease immediate pressure, but only a sustained recovery above 1.2740 (23.6% Fibo of broader 1.3992-1.2357) could signal a more lasting upward move.

    On the data front, it’s a busy week ahead with US data including PMIs, Q3 GDP revision, durable goods orders and housing data, while German IFO , confidence indicators and Eurozone CPI, taking special attention at this point, are the main events in the Eurozone calendar.

    from _http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-forecast/2014/11/21/05/

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    Last edited by Gamer; 06-15-2015 at 03:45 PM.

  2. #21
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    EURUSD is on the pressure to keep on the bearish trend. I have capture my monthly chart on EURUSD price. I have also predict this chart will be so strength to more and more bearish. I think we got the entry point at this chart. Please take a look my chart below.

    image hosting no sign up
    The price is actually on the line, and it means good entry point to open order.

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by aris90 View Post
    EURUSD is on the pressure to keep on the bearish trend. I have capture my monthly chart on EURUSD price. I have also predict this chart will be so strength to more and more bearish. I think we got the entry point at this chart. Please take a look my chart below.

    image hosting no sign up
    The price is actually on the line, and it means good entry point to open order.
    I think the pair eur / usd down a lot, and already in the oversold condition, I am waiting for a trend reversal signal, if prices break through the resistance, I will do buy. but this time I am still waiting, I'll see movement in the European session. I also have to look at the news today.

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  4. #23
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    EUR/USD: 1.1771

    After opening the European session pretty much unchanged at around 1.1840, the Euro has been on the back foot for the rest of the day, due in part to the left wing Greek party, Syriza’s 3% lead in Greek election polls (due on Jan 25) and also in part, on some comments from the ECB’s Benoit Coeure. He said that the ECB is “far advanced” in making a decision on bond buying on Jan 22, although he added that this” doesn’t necessarily have to mean we will actually decide to do so”, which put the Euro under pressure but at the same time kept traders cautious as to what the Jan 22 outcome will be.

    Technically, the Euro now has a minor double bottom after having traded heavily down to last week’s low of 1.1753, with little bounce of any consequence seen since then. The hourlies and the 4 hour charts both suggest that the downside pressure will remain, at least for the coming session, where the next support will be close by at 1.1743, where the Euro was initially pegged to the dollar in January 1999. A break of this would head towards 1.1700 and eventually to the 2005 low at 1.1640.

    While I retain a core short position, some caution is warranted on the downside as the dailies are becoming oversold and if the ECB do disappoint on 22 Jan we are going to see a sharp squeeze to the topside which could easily see us back at 1.20/1.21, although if this were the case, it would only present another sell opportunity at improved levels. Nevertheless there would be a lot of stops triggered on the way, so some caution is required on the topside. Note that we are at the bottom of the channel (purple lines) and this is likely to see some bids arrive, at least in the short term.

    The descending trend resistance at 1.1820, and then 1.1860/70 will be the first hurdles to overcome, although it looks unlikely to head above here today. If wrong, we could then we could see the Euro carry on towards 1.1900 but as we said before, there are plenty of dollar buyers into any weakness, so further progress would prove difficult but above 1.1900 could potentially see a run towards 1.1945 (23.6% of 1.2569/1.1753) and possibly to 1.1970 (daily Tenkan) and then to 1.2000, where there is still a gap that needs to be filled from last week’s lower Monday opening price. If so, there is no change in the view that it would be a good sell opportunity.

    Use 1.1740/1.1820 as a guide.

    Economic data highlights will include:

    EU Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Beige Book.
    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/daily-fx-market-outlook/2015/01/13/

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  5. #24
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    EUR/AUD hits a new 7-month low, back below 1.44 handle

    The single currency resumed its losing streak versus the Australian dollar, after a brief reversal seen yesterday as the Aussie bulls jumped back in to the bids on recovering commodities prices.

    Currently, the EUR/AUD cross trades at 1.4391 levels, down -0.52% on the day, having posted fresh seven-month low at 1.4326 levels earlier in the session. The EUR/AUD fell largely on the Aussie strength after stellar improvement in the Oz labour market boosted the Australian dollar versus the greenback. The AUD/USD trades at 0.8188, up 0.47% on the day. While, EUR/USD traded flat at 1.1785 levels, at time of writing.

    EUR/AUD Technical Levels

    The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.4459 (Nov 24 High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.45 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.4360 (Jan 12 Low) levels, from here it to 1.4320 levels.
    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=879294ca-12be-44db-9ea9-b472098fffd6

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  6. #25
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    ngalapreceh,
    Quote Originally Posted by ngalapreceh View Post
    I think the pair eur / usd down a lot, and already in the oversold condition, I am waiting for a trend reversal signal, if prices break through the resistance, I will do buy. but this time I am still waiting, I'll see movement in the European session. I also have to look at the news today.
    You are right dear. It is bearish on the maket of EURUSD. Many economics analysisi, predict the death of dollar. I have subscribe good economics analyst in youtube channel. He predict, dollar will death. And the bigger economics will fall. The big crisis will happen on 2020.

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  7. #26
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    EUR/USD Forecast: never ending free-fall

    Astonished, shocked, broken. I guess those words are in many mouths this Friday after the latest market developments. I also guess everyone is still talking about the SNB and the troubled brokers. In the meantime, the EUR/USD extends its decline below the 1.1500 level, levels not seen since November 2003, in a free-fall that has so far accumulated 2,600 pips in 8 months.

    The technical picture shows extreme oversold conditions all over the different time frames, and yet, there are no signs the pair may find a bottom anytime soon. In the weekly chart, RSI resumed its slide, gathering downward momentum around 18, while momentum indicator lacks directional strength flat below 100 as per reflecting the latest weekly opening. In the daily chart however, indicators head straight south in extreme oversold levels, with RSI at 17. Moving averages in both time frames are way too far to even consider pullbacks for the upcoming days.

    So can this never ending slide extend even further? Will depend on the ECB next Thursday, but indeed, the pair seems to be heading towards its next strong static support around 1.1360, where it presents several weekly and monthly lows. If the level gives up, 1.10 comes as next logical target (and believe me, I can’t believe I have just said “1.10”).

    To the upside, 1.1600 comes as the immediate natural resistance level, with a break above signaling a probable recovery up to 1.1750. The bearish trend however, will remain well in place even if the recovery extends up to 1.20, something hardly seen at the time being.

    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-forecast/2015/01/16/03/

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  8. #27
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    EUR/USD: Profits taken as market exceeds in-house QE expectations - Nomura

    Nomura FX Strategists have taken profits in their EUR short positions as market QE expectations - in terms of sizing - have now surpassed the bank's initial case.

    Key Quotes

    "The focus this week will be on the ECB. Our economists have long been suggesting the ECB could move to sovereign bond QE as early as January, and based on recent price action in EUR, we suspect that the market may have also begun accepting this, and even surpassing our expectations in terms of sizing. This is why we took profits on our EURUSD short positions."

    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=f252e4e5-8cec-4e7c-ab23-bb206a3f00cd

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  9. #28
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    3rd, the actual trade-weighted dinar is really upward because the Oct as well as The fall of ECB conferences. The actual degree isn't large (around 1% about the TWI), however this particular impetus is within the incorrect path, in a time whenever increasingly more ECB regulating local authority or council people tend to be featuring the actual trade price like a crucial tranny system with regard to less strong financial plan to the economic climate.

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  10. #29
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    EUR/USD – Calm Before the Storm? Euro Steady Ahead of QE Decision

    EUR/USD is showing little movement on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the high-1.15 range in the European session. There are no Eurozone releases today, but the markets will be counting down the hours until the ECB policy meeting on Thursday, which is likely to see a QE announcement. In the US, it’s been a very quiet week. We’ll get a look at the first major events of the week, with the release of Building Permits and Housing Starts for December. The markets are expecting slight improvement from both indicators.

    As the markets nervously eye the ECB policy meeting on Thursday, is this the calm before the storm? On Wednesday, French President Francois Hollande stated flat out that the ECB will announce a quantitative easing package at the ECB meeting. However, now that a QE is likely priced in, the question remains what will be the size of the program? The markets are anticipating QE of between EUR 500-600 billion, but some market players are saying that the ECB could go as high as EUR 800 billion. Will the euro take a hit on Thursday? The likelihood is yes, unless the ECB surprises with a “QE lite”, such as EUR 300 billion, which would be well below expectations.

    There was excellent news out of Germany on Wednesday, as ZEW Economic Sentiment climbed to 48.4 points, crushing the estimate of 40.1 points. This marked the indicator’s highest level in 11 months, pointing to strong optimism among German investors and analysts. Eurozone Economic Sentiment, improving to 45.2 points. This easily surpassed the forecast of 37.6 points. The news was not as positive on the inflation front, as German PPI dropped 0.7%, its worst showing since April 2009. With the Eurozone struggling with deflation, there is growing expectation that the ECB will announce a QE package at its policy meeting on Thursday.

    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forex-market-pulse/2015/01/21/

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  11. #30
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    EUR/USD crashes to fresh 12-Yr Lows at 1.1315

    The Euro-bashing extends as the EUR/USD tumbles to fresh twelve year lows in late Asian session as traders continue to absorb the aftermath of the ECB QE.

    The EUR/USD inched -0.32% down so far and trades close to fresh twelve year lows of 1.1315 levels hit few minutes ago. The EUR/USD pair is expected to get smashed after the ECB Chief Draghi unveiled a monthly EUR60 bn bond-buying program commence from this March until end of September 2016, in an attempt to revive the ailing economy.

    EUR/USD Technical Levels

    The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1374 (Today’s High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.1400 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1300 levels, below which it could extend losses to 1.1280 (2013 levels).

    from_http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=88aa8f71-ae1e-4194-9676-ff4c9f5c64ba

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