EUR/USD Analysis
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Thread: EUR/USD Analysis

  1. #1

    EUR/USD Analysis

    Hello moderator, I asked permission to create a new thread, about the analysis of the EUR / USD. I will first review the price movement on Friday, 21 November 2014. from technical analysis after prices break down pivot points, the price goes down in a large range of 190 pips. from fundamental analysis, this price movement is influenced by Draghi speak

    European Central Bank President said the ECB is ready to act in a timely manner if low inflation persists and expressed a sense of urgency that triggered speculation the bank could announce further easing measures as early as next December, with some analysts expecting a full-blown quantitative easing program.

    Technically speaking, weekly charts show indicators in oversold levels and EUR/USD close to its 2014 low. Thus, some consolidation should be expected before another leg lower, but fundamental factors and further speculation of ECB easing measures could easily send the pair to fresh multi-month lows ahead of the December 4 policy meeting. Immediate target is seen at the 1.2290 zone (where several 2012 weekly lows converge) en route to 1.2100.

    Meanwhile, EUR/USD needs to regain the 1.2560 area to ease immediate pressure, but only a sustained recovery above 1.2740 (23.6% Fibo of broader 1.3992-1.2357) could signal a more lasting upward move.

    On the data front, it’s a busy week ahead with US data including PMIs, Q3 GDP revision, durable goods orders and housing data, while German IFO , confidence indicators and Eurozone CPI, taking special attention at this point, are the main events in the Eurozone calendar.

    from _
    Last edited by Gamer; 06-15-2015 at 02:45 PM.

  2. #2
    EUR/USD keeps near 1.2400 post-IFO
    FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency kept the composure after the German IFO, with EUR/USD trading in the proximities of 1.2400 the figure.

    EUR/USD now looks to the US docket

    The pair remains within the intraday range after the German IFO indicator surprised markets to the upside for the month of November, with all of its components surpassing both estimates and October’s prints. The data add to the recent auspicious results from the German ZEW Survey and the improvement in the consumer confidence in the region, in spite of the softer-than-expected PMIs from the manufacturing and services sectors. Strategists at UOB Group noted “the unexpected plunge in EUR appears incomplete and another leg towards 1.2340 is likely before a recovery. Only a move back above 1.2415 would indicate that a rebound is under way”.

    EUR/USD key levels

    At the moment the pair is losing 0.02% at 1.2389 with the immediate support at 1.2358 (2014 low Nov.7) followed by 1.2342 (low Aug.21 2012) and then 1.2300 (psychological handle). On the flip side, a break below 1.2482 (10-d MA) would aim for 1.2525 (21-d MA) and then 1.2589 (30-d MA).

  3. #3
    EUR/USD Edges Higher to 1.2440 after German Data

    The euro rose against the dollar and yen on Monday due to encouraging German business data and remarks from a top European Central Bank official that cast doubts on whether the bank will take aggressive stimulus measures in the near future.

    As the euro rebounded from a near two-year low against the greenback, the dollar index pulled back from a near 4-1/2-year high set earlier in the day. The Japanese market was closed on Monday for a holiday.

    A stronger-than-expected German business survey for November offered hope that Europe’s largest economy was gaining momentum after narrowly avoiding a recession last quarter.

  4. #4
    EUR/USD: Firmer foundation to buy dips after 1.2445 breakout
    Wed, Nov 26 2014, 05:13 GMT

    FXStreet (Bali) - EUR/USD's bullish activity during this week is fast approaching a key level, once again, at 1.25, with perma bears probably waiting in the wings around the vicinity to reset positions.

    ECB's Draghi explicit reference to sovereign QE last Friday, initially perceived as an option being strongly considered for December's meeting despite the political and legal hurdle, felt a bit overdone, as there was really nothing new being added, other than perhaps the market rushing to assume a more pronounced sense of urgency that Dec could finally be sovereign QE launch time.

    After digesting Draghi's comments over the weekend, the market is playing the EUR/USD much more conservatively, aiming to pare positions, with the 1.5 cents liquidity gap - from 1.25+ to 1.2360 - from Friday gradually being erased. Besides, in a week in which liquidity in the market will dry up earlier than usual due to thanks-giving, it may potentially encourage the squaring up of USD longs ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday next week.

    From a technical standpoint, the possibility of buyers emerging on intraday dips was increased by large after the pop through 1.2443/45 on Tuesday, following the publication of another decent US data - headlines and details of the US GDP were solid-. The counter-intuitive move to sell the USD in good news - seen in several occasions throughout the month - is an indication that a crowded USD long market refuses to add fresh positions, with the play probably being that any release in favour of USD buying is an excuse to close longs - by selling USD - at a better price.

    While in European hours the calendar exhibits no risk events, the list of market moving headlines out of the US will come from Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and Core PCE Price Index. Expect any dips along the day to find a solid cluster of bids around 1.2442/45 - old resistance turned support - ahead of 1.2425/2400 - origin spike Tuesday -, with potential targets to the upside at 1.25/2510 - stops aimed above? - ahead of 1.2540/60, which should remain an impregnable resistance.

  5. #5
    in asian session November, 27, 2014 I gave the key level for the pair eur / usd

    resistance 4 : 1.2679
    resistance 3 : 1.2629
    resistance 2 : 1.2580
    resistance 1 : 1.2542
    pivot point : 1.2493
    support 1 : 1.2455
    support 2 : 1.2406
    support 3 : 1.2368
    support 4 : 1.2331


    My decision is BUY at the level pivot point, and put take profit in the resistance 1, stop loss support 1

  6. #6
    EUR/USD Current price: 1.2471

    Dollar advanced on Thursday, supported by weak European readings and the OPEC that failed to reach an agreement on a cut on oil output: the black metal sunk below the $70.00 a barrel mark, helping the greenback advance across the board. As for Europe, weak German inflation readings alongside with Draghi’s comments before the Finnish Parliament, suggesting the ECB will remain on hold next week, weighted the most on the common currency, pressuring its daily low ahead of Asian opening. With the US closed on Thanksgiving holiday, trading over the afternoon has been limited, situation that will likely extend into Friday, when US stocks will have an early close.

    Technically the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows indicators heading south into negative territory, as 20 SMA gains bearish slope above current price. In the 4 hours chart price pressures its 20 SMA heading higher a few pips below current price, while indicators turned lower but hold above their midlines. The 1.2440 static support level stands in the way of further falls towards 1.2400, while sellers will likely surge on approaches to 1.2520 price zone.

  7. #7
    EUR/USD faces a big week ahead
    Mon, Dec 01 2014, 00:38 GMT

    FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is trading at 1.2431, down -0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2473 and low at 1.2427.

    EUR/USD has been on the offer at the start of the week at the mercy of commodity markets and the greenback taking the lead to start us off for the days ahead that are sure to be busy. First off, the gold price has dropped like a stone, amongst further sell offs in oil and its derivatives that are continuing to drive the US dollar higher.

    The gold price (Spot: $1,250.20 and $1,142.60 the lows currently) took a further bout of supply on the back the Swiss referendum vote where the SNB were voted against increasing their gold reserves. Oil and related products are a continuation of OPEC maintaining their current quota of supply and as full markets return this week, margin calls may well be the catalysts for a further squeeze of long positions. Already we are seeing crude ($68.15 the low), the worlds benchmark price and WTI ($65.78 the low) to the lowest levels since May 2010 and July 2009 respectively and this too is supporting the greenback.

    For the single currency this week, it should remain on a rocky road and it has its own economic fundamentals at home to contend with, the ECB being this week’s domestic highlight. While economists do not expect any direct action until the start of 2015, the macro-economic projections will be published and these are unlikely to be particularly supportive of the single currency and may highlight both concerns around the ECB’s inflation targets and declines in growth. Eurozone GDP is likely to be the first set of data pre ECB that could rock the boat and a break out of recent ranges below 1.2400 would extend the downside while 1.2517 marks key resistance at R2.

  8. #8
    EUR/AUD suffers containment of decending resistance line

    EUR/AUD has been a downside play, with the European data in manufacturing in Germany and EZ a disappointment but the main catalyst was unwinding of dollar longs acros sthe board with commodities starting to recover. The Aussie has been climbing back up and recovering, albeit only modestly and struggles on the 0.85 handle. The cross has been contained to the descending resistance line on attempts to the upside, meeting strong supply wit the bears full in control taking it towards R1 while it rides the hourly 20DMA currently.

    The risk events today come in the form of the building permits data and the RBA that is however expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. The accompanying statement will be tuned into while looking ahead for the Eurozone, the ECB is the main risk event this month and week for the single currency and the verbiage and rhetoric will be indicating what the next moves will be, most likely not coming until the beginning for the new year or further in.

  9. #9
    EUR/USD eases to 1.2450
    Tue, Dec 02 2014, 07:31 GMT

    EUR/USD retreats from 1.2500

    The pair keeps correcting lower from yesterday’s failed attempt to regain the 1.2500 handle and beyond, depressed by a better sentiment surrounding the greenback. Traders quickly shrugged off poor results from the manufacturing PMIs in the euro area on Monday, pushing spot to the 1.2510 neighbourhood backed by a generalized USD weakness at the beginning of the week. Nothing relevant in the data front from the euro zone, with only Producer Prices due for the month of October; in the US economy, Construction Spending will be in the spotlight in an otherwise non-relevant docket.

    EUR/USD levels to watch

    As of writing the pair is down 0.12% at 1.2456 and a breach of 1.2419 (low Dec.1) would open the door to 1.2402 (low Nov.25) and finally 1.2358 (2014 low Nov.7). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.2507 (high Dec.1) followed by 1.2520 (30-d MA) and then 1.2524 (high Nov.27).

  10. #10
    Sell EURUSD into ECB: Stop at 1.2610, targeting 1.20 - Nomura

    According to Jens Nordvig, FX Strategist at Nomura, there is a very strong fundamental case for the ECB to do more at the December 4 meeting, leading the Bank to allocate $20 million to the short EURUSD spot trade with a stop at 1.2610, targeting a move to 1.20.

    Key Quotes

    "First, inflation expectations continue to fall. The 5y5y inflation swap for the eurozone has been trading in the 1.75-1.85% range recently, down from 2.00-2.10% at the September ECB meeting. Moreover, the ECB‟s own inflation forecast for 2015 are likely to be revised down substantially."

    "Second, the sharp drop in energy prices should lead to very low headline inflation figures in the next few months (potentially negative readings according to NORI), and this creates further asymmetry around inflation expectations."

    "Third, the trade-weighted euro is actually up since the October and November ECB meetings. The magnitude is not huge (around 1% on the TWI), but this momentum is in the wrong direction, at a point in time when more and more ECB governing council members are highlighting the exchange rate as a key transmission mechanism for weaker monetary policy into the economy. "

    "The ECB may not be able to agree on full-blown QE at the December meeting. But ECB Vice President Constancio hinted on November 26 that the ECB is likely to buy sovereign bonds if it judges that current measures are insufficient to reach the desired balance-sheet expansion. One possibility is to expand the menu of private sector assets being bought to include corporate bonds."

    "It may not be possible to buy more than EUR200-300bn over a one- to two-year horizon. But such liquidity considerations have not stopped the ECB from buying ABS. Hence, we see that as a clear possibility. Another option is to spell out a clearer roadmap as to when sovereign bond purchases would be triggered, to provide a “contingent easing signal”.

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