Hello all my fellow, this time I want to build a strategy, it is purely on the basis of the inspiration that I got from a content thread created by Value trader. But I forgot which thread is.

I take an example: we made ​​10 trades, if 9 trades is ending with loss, Are impossible for us to change it into profit? As far as we still have a chance, we can still change the situation into profit. It is depends on our method in managing risk. If we put a stop loss 10 pips/ each trades, and take protit 100 pips. So the end result is, total loss + Total Profit = (9 * -10) + (1 * 100) = 10 pips profit.

Compare the contrary, for example, we are a scalper, we take profit of 10 pips for each trade, and put a 100 pips stop loss. If we get 9 win trades of 10 transactions. Then the end of the results is: (1*-100) + (9*10) = -10 pips (loss).

This is evidence that a high level of accuracy in the analysis is not a guarantee for profitable if we can not manage risk properly, in other words, is not able to set the ratio of risk: reward properly. 90% accuracy in analysis isn't mean profitable, and 10% accuracy in analysis isn't mean unprofitable.

Okay, that is a simple logic of the system that I will build.

Even so, I will start from zero, I will do a backtest for a few months back, or more than a year back, and then I will do a forward test.
For a back test, I would not use the analysis at all, I just want to know the worst of this system, I just rely on the game of risk: reward ratio.
Of course I would compare of 5 methods. So I will know which one is best, and what weaknesses and strengths of this system.


It is my plan to build this system:
1. Doing backtest in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, and EUR/JPY.
I would compare 5 methods of risk: reward ratio:
- Stop Loss 25 pips : Take Profit unset. or trade using stop loss only, no take profit. But close all profit positions in the last week or last month.(My system)
- Stop Loss unset : Take Profit 25 pips. or trade using take profit only, no stop loss, But close all loss positions in the last week or last month.
- Stop Loss 25 pips : Take Profit 25 pips. or trade with 1:1 Risk Reward ratio
- Stop Loss 25 pips : Take Profit 50 pips. or trade with 1:2 Risk Reward ratio
- Stop Loss 50 pips : Take profit 25 pips. or trade with 2:1 RIsk Reward ratio.
In the back test, I would just use grid trading, (using robots), so I'm not going to use market analysis.
I use buy stop and sell stop orders, the distance of each order is 25 pips. I do not use order limit, just order stop. And the distance of the nearest pending order to the current price is 25 pips. And will always add new pending order if the price move 25 pips or more.
Just see the picture...


2. Doing forward test. Here I will determine the appropriate analysis strategies, and then do some testing, maybe I can change the method of analysis if I am still getting unsatisfactory results. Then If I've got a good and profitable system, then I will make a thread for this system, this is my journey in building strategy. A system with use stop loss only.

Thank you