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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Euro is keeping balance. Overview for 13.06.2019

    After falling yesterday, EURUSD reached stability on Thursday morning; investors are looking for support.

    The major currency pair stopped falling on Thursday morning and is trying to reach stability. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1302.

    Yesterday, investors’ attention was again switched to US-Chinese trade talks as the US President Donald Trump said that the agreement might be concluded in the nearest future. This news made the USD revive a bit.

    The Eurogroup Meetings are being held today, where policymakers may discuss budget issues, including the Italian one.

    The German Final CPI remained unchanged in May at +0.2% m/m, the same as previous estimations, but had no influence on the European currency. In the afternoon, the Euro Area will report on the Industrial Production for April, which may lose 0.4% m/m after showing -0.3% m/m in the previous month. If the actual reading matches the forecast, it will indicate lack of new orders and problems with sales. It’s a negative signal for the Euro

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    The Euro slowed down its decline. Overview for 14.06.2019

    On Friday, the major currency pair is reaching stability after two days of sales.

    EURUSD found support at the end of the week and slowed down its decline. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1280.

    Right now, investors are focused on the oncoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, because they believe the results may hint at possible rate cuts.

    In the evening, the USA are scheduled to report on the Retail Sales for May, which is expected to recover by 0.7% after losing 0.2% m/m in the previous month. The stronger the report, the better for the USD.

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    EURUSD reached stability. Overview for 17.06.2019

    The major currency pair stopped falling; market players are busy with consolidation.

    Early in the new week, EURUSD is looking quite stable without any aggressive sales so far. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1217.

    Last Friday, the USA published quite good numbers on the Retail Sales for May: the indicator added 0.5% m/m. which is a bit worse than expected. However, the April report that was revised upwards supported the USD and helped it regain positions. The Core Retail Sales also expanded by 0.5% m/m and that’s also very good.

    Such strong reports were extremely important in anticipation of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is set to take place on June 18th and 19th. No one is expecting the rate cut, but investors will surely focus on any hints at future moves of the regulator.

    Today’s macroeconomic calendar is rather empty.

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    The Euro is slowly recovering. Overview for 18.06.2019

    The major currency pair reached stability; investors are carefully buying in anticipation of news.

    On Tuesday morning, EURUSD is slowly recovering after last week’s losses. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1238.

    In the afternoon, the ECB Governor Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver a speech. It’s not clear what he is going to speak about, but market players may be very sensitive to his comments.

    A bit later, Germany will report on the ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is expected to go from -2.1 points in May to -5.7 points in June. The Euro Area will publish the same report, which is also expected to decline, from -1.6 points to -3.6 points. The more negative the reading, the worse for the European currency.

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    The Euro resumed falling. Overview for 19.06.2019

    On Wednesday morning, the major currency pair reached its two weeks lows.

    EURUSD is being sold again. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1190.

    The European currency weakened yesterday after the comments from the ECB Governor Mario Draghi, who said that the regulator might stimulate the Euro Area economy much more in case the inflation didn’t improve. This means that the ECB may consider cutting the benchmark rate. Investors’ response to his words was quite obvious – they started selling the Euro.

    In the evening, the USA are scheduled to report on the Crude Oil Inventories, which may show -1.5M

    The key highlight of the day will be the US Federal Reserve meeting. The regulator is not expected to decrease the rate, but may hint at possible rate cuts in the nearest future. This topic has been discussed for a couple of weeks, it was confirmed by the regulator representatives, so market players are expecting the Fed’s monetary policy to change soon. Right after the meeting, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.

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    The Euro continues growing. Overview for 21.06.2019

    The major currency pair is keeping its positive momentum on Friday morning and slowly rising.

    At the end of the week, EURUSD feels fine and continues rising. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1300.

    The American currency is still suffering from the Fed’s too soft stance on its monetary policy. In addition to that, last night the USA reported on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which turned out to be very weak. The indicator added only 0.3 points in June after expanding by 16.6 points the month before and against the expected reading of +10.6 points. The index is calculated by the Fed itself and it represents attitude of the largest manufacturing companies to the current economic situation. The smaller the number, the worse for the USD.

    The Euro Area and some of its members will publish preliminary reports on the Manufacturing and Services PMIs for June. Taken together, the numbers are expected to be better than in May, which may provide the Euro with fundamental support.

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    The Euro is keeping momentum. Overview for 24.06.2019

    On Monday, the major currency pair is keeping its momentum; comments from monetary policymakers put a lot of pressure on the USD.

    EURUSD continues rising. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1377.

    After the US Federal Reserve gave very clear signals that it was ready to cut the rate and soften its monetary policy in case the country’s economy slowed down, the regulator’s representatives started speaking of it more often.

    For example, last Friday FOMC Member James Bullard said that the regulator should have cut the rate in June in order to support the inflation. However, Bullard’s stance on the issue is no surprise to anybody: last week, he was the only member of the Committee who voted against keeping the rate intact.

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    The Yen is in demand. Overview for 25.06.2019

    USDJPY reached the lowest levels since January 3rd; investors require “safe haven” assets.

    On Tuesday morning, the Japanese Yen continues rising against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 106.89.

    The Yen is demand due to escalations of the US-Iran conflict and anticipation of the meeting of the US and Chinese leaders during the upcoming G20 summit. This might be too much news for one week, that’s why it influences market sentiments so strongly.

    In the morning, Japan reported on the SPPI for May. The indicator added only 0.8 y/y after expanding by 1.0% y/y in April. The report is minor, but it shows that the inflation is slowing down. Again.

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    EURUSD started a correction. Overview for 26.06.2019

    The major currency pair is moving away from its local highs; news are in are in favor of the USD.

    EURUSD is being corrected to the downside on Wednesday morning after an Impressive growth earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1410.

    At the same time, the USD remains very sensitive to the comments from American policymakers that appear from time to time. For example, the FOMC member James Bullard told yesterday that the country’s economy seemed to need preventive rate cut. In his opinion, the inflation under current conditions is looking too stable and steady and needs to be supported. However, according to Bullard, cutting the rate by 50 basis points at once in July will be too much. Investors took this information as an intention of the regulator to decrease the rate slightly just once this year.

    A bit later, the US President Donald Trump said that the USD was too strong and one of the ways to handle it is to cut the rate. One way or another, everything is turning upon the key rate, but it is hardly a universal panacea.

    In the morning, Germany will report on the GfK Consumer Climate for July, which may drop to 10.0 points after being 10.1 points the month before. Overall, this is a neutral report for EURUSD.

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    EURUSD is waiting for the news. Overview for 27.06.2019

    On Thursday, EURUSD is quite neutral; investors are waiting for the news from the G-20 summit.

    The major currency pair was pretty active on Thursday morning, but then market players switched to the “standby mode” – they are waiting for the news. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1360.

    The G-20 summit will start in Osaka today. Market players have high hopes for the event – it is going to feature the US-Chinese meeting with the key topic being their trade agreement, which has been discussed for 6 months. The current global situation is that investors will respond to any pieces of information or news relating to the summit one way or another.

    There will be few macroeconomic reports from Europe today. In the afternoon, Germany will publish the preliminary report on the CPI for June, which is expected to remain at +0.2% m/m. The reading in neutral for EURUSD. In the evening, the Euro Area will report on the Consumer Confidence for July, which may go from 0.30 points to 0.23 points.

    The USA are scheduled to publish the weekly report on the Unemployment Claims, which may show 220K after being 216K last week.

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