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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Aussie stopped rising. Overview for 10.09.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, AUDUSD took a short break after 6 consecutive trading sessions of stable growth.

    The Australian Dollar slowed down its growth against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6860.

    The statistics published in the morning showed that the NAB Business Confidence went from 4 points in July to 1 point in August. The indicator describes the sentiments of employees of the largest Australian companies except for the agriculture sector. Readings above and below zero imply improvement and deterioration of business sentiment respectively.

    So far, the indicator is still above zero, but the decline prevents the Aussie from further growth.

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    The Pound is having troubles growing. Overview for 11.09.2019

    On Wednesday, GBPUSD is directed to the upside, but investors are very cautious and barely buying the instrument.

    The British Pound intends to rise against the USD in the middle of the weekб but each successive step is more and more difficult. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2347.

    The Brexit and its possible scenarios are still the key highlight the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s stance has too many unanswered questions. The key scenario right now is the “hardcore” one and the whole Parliament is against it. However, there is little time left for discussions and arrangements, but the Brits, who are usually quite insightful and forethoughtful, are simply wasting it.

    Market players can’t exclude risks of the “no-deal” Brexit, thus putting pressure on the Pound. However, if the Bank of England interferes and implements the QE in case of the “hardcore” Brexit, some negative moments for the country’s economy after exiting may be avoided. But the British regulator is mum on that so far.

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    The Yen is surrendering. Overview for 12.09.2019

    USDJPY is keeping positive momentum and getting close to its six weeks highs.

    The Japanese Yen continues falling against the USD on Thursday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 107.92.

    In the morning, Japan published a lot of numbers. The first one, the Producer Price Index, lost 0.9% y/y in August after reducing by 0.6% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.8% y/y. The indicator describes the wholesale market prices and if there is a decline in it, there will be the same in the retail prices later.

    The Tertiary Industry Activity added 0.1% m/m in Japan in July, which is quite good, because it was expected to lose 0.3% m/m.

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    The ECB’s soft stance didn’t scare the Euro. Overview for 13.09.2019

    EURUSD is growing a little bit on Friday; investors’ emotions were temporary.

    On Friday, the major currency is quite stable – stable enough to be admired. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1066.

    Following the results of its September meeting, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates and revive the QE program. However, the key rate remained unchanged. The regulator cut the deposit rate to -0.50% from -0.40%. The rate on the main refinancing operations and the rate on the marginal lending facility also remained the same, at 0.00% and 0.25% respectively.

    Starting November 1st, 2019, the ECB revives the stimulus program in the monthly amount of 20 billion EUR. According to the regulator’s statement, the program will continue as long as it has to for being effective. After the program is over, reinvestments of principal payments will continue for a long time even after the ECB starts increasing the rates.

    At the same time, TLTRO-III will also continue because it is necessary for the regional economy’s transition to soft monetary policy and favorable bank lending conditions.

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    EURUSD will wait for decisions from the Fed. Overview for 16.09.2019

    Early in another September week, EURUSD is quite stable; major news and events are ahead.

    The major currency pair is barely moving at the beginning of another September week as investors are totally focused on the oil market. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

    Only China published several macroeconomic reports this morning; no new numbers are expected from both the USA and the Euro Area.

    This week’s major focus will be on the September meeting of the American regulator, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday and last until Wednesday evening, September 18th. The FOMC is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points. The White House’s pressure is too great for the regulator to continue resisting. Most likely, there will be one more rate cut by the Fed this year, probably in December. The country’s economy is surely in no need of such stimulus right now, but it may happen for political reasons.

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    The Australian Dollar came under sales. Overview for 17.09.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, AUDUSD is moving downwards; market sentiment is in favor of the USD.

    The Australian Dollar is getting weaker against the USD on Tuesday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6841.

    This morning, Australia reported on the HPI for the second quarter of 2019. The indicator lost 0.7% q/q, which was better than the expected reading of -1.0% q/q. By the way, in the first quarter of 2019, the indicator plummeted by 3.0% q/q.

    On YoY, the indicator decreased by 7.4%, the same as the quarter before.

    The decline of the house prices indicates a reduced demand: by decreasing prices, real estate sellers try to attract new customers. However, at the time of economic uncertainty, it doesn’t work as it should.

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