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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Pound is looking for support. Overview for 10.10.2019

    On Thursday afternoon, GBPUSD stopped falling but may resume its decline at any moment.

    The British Pound is growing a little bit against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2227.

    The European Union and the United Kingdom continue debating on the Brexit. The current discussions are about the exact time of Britain’s exiting the alliance: right now, the time may yet be revised based on the existing deal draft. The European Council will meet on October 17th and 18th, so if the parties do have any thoughts on delaying the Brexit, they should be voiced prior to these dates.

    The United Kingdom is scheduled to publish a lot of macroeconomic reports today. For example, the August GDP report, which is not expected to increase after adding 0.3% m/m in July. Apart from this, investors will be offered the Industrial Production report, which is also expected to remain the same after adding 0.1% m/m/ the month before. The Manufacturing Production may expand by 0.1% m/m, which is worse than the July reading. The Construction Output may drop by 0.4% m/m after being +0.5% m/m in July.

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    The Pound rose thanks to progress in Brexit talks. Overview for 11.10.2019

    On Friday morning, GBPUSD remains energetic and is ready to rise thanks to progress in Brexit talks.

    The British Pound intends to keep growing against the USD on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2450.

    The Pound skyrocketed yesterday after investors found out that the United Kingdom was ready to make significant concessions in the Brexit talks. Pat Leahy, the Irish Times editor, twitted that “there had been very significant movement from the British side on the customs issue in the Johnson-Varadkar talks”.

    Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar “held make-or-break Brexit talks”, after which market players started active debates on a possible deal soon. The “hardcore” Brexit is not a good thing for Ireland and here’s the reason why: according to the current calculations, this scenario might result in the hasty growth of unemployment, up to 7% on average. Later, it might get much worse.

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    The Pound keeps its hopes to rise. Overview for 15.10.2019

    After a short pause, GBPUSD is back to growing; market players believe in the Brexit.

    The British Pound is rising against the USD again after a two-day pause. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2661.

    London and the European Union are coming to a head of the Brexit negotiations: the parties are running short of time for making a deal, but seem very determined to do it until the end of the month. This Thursday, October 17th, the EU is set to start its two-day summit and if there is no news relating to the Brexit by October 19th, the British Prime Minister is obliged by the law to ask for renewal of negotiations and extension of the deadline. However, this contradicts what Boris Johnson was saying during his ascendancy to the Prime Minister position.

    Right now, the United Kingdom really needs no pauses in this process. If the deal with the European Union is signed this week, Johnson will require some time to rush all documents through the British parliament.

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    The Pound is waiting for the Brexit news. Overview for 16.10.2019

    GBPUSD is trading close to May’s highs; investors’ attention is focused on the Brexit deal draft.

    The British Pound moved a bit away from yesterday’s highs, but may yet continue rising. The current quote for GBPUSD is 1.2756.

    Last night, the Pound was pretty popular in the view of talks about the Brexit deal draft prepared by the United Kingdom and the European Union. They said that the draft might appear in the media on Wednesday morning, but there hasn’t been any news about it so far.

    Meanwhile, the talks continue. On Thursday, the EU is set to have the Brexit summit and some of the documents had to be ready at the opening.

    It seems like the Pound will remain volatile in the next 24 hours, so investors may try to benefit from everything that is relating to the Brexit procedure.

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    The Pound slowed down its growth for a while. Overview for 17.10.2019

    On Thursday, GBPUSD is consolidating and waiting for the news from the European summit on Brexit.

    After a couple of positive trading sessions in a row, the British Pound is consolidating against the USD on Thursday afternoon and waiting for the news. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2765.

    Investors’ attention is focused on Brussels today, where European leaders are starting their two-day summit. The key topic is Brexit and it will easily beat any other subject policymakers may want to discuss.

    Earlier, representatives of both the United Kingdom and the European Union said that the managed to solve all disagreements that they had during these negotiations. On paper, the agreement may be concluded as early as today or tomorrow, so that the British Parliament could have time to approve the deal on its special meeting on Saturday. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will have to do his best to navigate the deal through the Parliament, the thing that the former Minister Theresa May failed to accomplish on several occasions.

    If the Parliament denies the deal with the EU, Johnson will have to ask the alliance for another extension. The current deadline is October 31st, so there is not much time left.

    However, it seems that those market players who invest in the Pound aren’t afraid of any possible complications from the Parliament, but as long as there is no news, they prefer to just watch and avoid any “sudden movements”.

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