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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Pound is looking for support. Overview for 25.09.2019

    GBPUSD is losing momentum in the middle of the week influenced by strong USD.

    The British Pound is falling against the USD on Wednesday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2440.

    Yesterday, the United Kingdom reported on the CBI Industrial Order Expectations. The indicator dropped to -28 points in September after being 1-3 points in August and against the expected reading of -14 points. Readings below zero show drop in orders. Obviously, the British industrial sector is now suffering due to the lack of clear understanding of what might happen after October 31st.

    Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again reminded that the country would exit the European Union at the end of October, just as planned, and the latest decision of the British Supreme Court to declare the Parliament shutdown illegal supposedly prevented him from making the Brexit deal.

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    The USD strengthened significantly. Overview for 26.09.2019

    On Thursday, the major currency pair remains under pressure after the statistics and talks about Trump’s impeachment.

    EURUSD is trying to recover on Thursday, but quite unsuccessfully so far. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0954.

    Speculations of the US President Donald Trump’s impeachment ahead that appeared yesterday resulted in the drawdown of all USD-related assets. Needless to say that under such circumstances the USD was doing great.

    Another stressful factor was Trump’s aggressive rhetoric against China because market players really counted on the quick resumption of trade talks between the parties, but it was in vain.

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    The Australian Dollar is getting cheaper. Overview for 30.09.2019

    AUDUSD is retreating under pressure of the strengthened “greenback”.

    The Australian Dollar is losing positions against the Usd early in the week. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6752.

    The statistics published by China in the morning were mostly positive. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 points in September, which is much better than 50.4 points the month before. The Manufacturing PMI added 0.3 points this month, going from 49.5 points to 49.8 points. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped a little bit, from 53.8 points to 53.7 points.

    Numbers from China are very important for Australia, because China is its key trade and economic partner.

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    The Australian Dollar continues falling. Overview for 01.10.2019

    On Tuesday, AUDUSD is retreating; the RBA rate decision did match expectations.

    The Australian Dollar remains week against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6734.

    This morning, the October meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was over, where the regulator decided to cut the rate by 25 basis points, from 0.75% to 1.00%. However, this scenario was expected by investors, because earlier the regulator said that it would be necessary to boost the country’s economy.

    Probably, now the RBA may take a pause and view the happenings, but if the global market conditions don’t change for the better, the regulator might as well cut the rate one more time until the end of the year.

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    The Pound managed to reach stability. Overview for 02.10.2019

    After being pretty volatile on Tuesday, GBPUSD found support and is ready to consolidate.

    The British Pound has reached stability against the USD by Wednesday; the volatile Tuesday is gone. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2274.

    The Pound rose significantly during yesterday’s trading session after Bloomberg reported that “the EU had discussed giving the UK a major concession on Brexit by possibly time-limiting the contentious backstop mechanism for the Irish border”. In addition to that, there were speculations that the European Union might consider some easing of its requirements in case the United Kingdom settled for a compromise in the Irish issue.

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    The Pound is very volatile. Overview for 03.10.2019

    The British Pound has been pretty volatile recently; however, there is more to come.

    The British Pound is very volatile against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2293.

    It’s all about the Brexit nuances, which are moving to the forefront these days. So, the EU's Chief Negotiator for the United Kingdom Exiting the European Union Michel Barnier said yesterday that there was visible progress in negotiations. The United Kingdom offered Brussels several suggestions, but they had to be fully canvassed. Barnier once again emphasized that the European Union wouldn’t accept any no-deal Brexit scenarios.

    As for London, they also mentioned that there was progress in Brexit talks and the country was ready to discuss everything in detail.

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    The Euro slowed down its growth. Overview for 04.10.2019

    The major currency pair has significantly improved over this week, but investors need new catalysts.

    EURUSD slowed down its growth on Friday morning in anticipation of the statistics from the USA and speeches to be delivered by the US monetary policymakers. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0973.

    Yesterday, market players had concerns about signs of weakness in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the USA, because they might influence the global economy in general. However, maybe investors just got tired of buying and decided to wait for news.

    The news will surely be today: later in the afternoon, the USA is going to report on the labor market for September. The Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.7%, which is the same as expected. The Average Hourly Earnings is expected to add 0.3% m/m after increasing by 0.4% m/m in August, and that’s a very good result.

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    The Euro intends to continue rising. Overview for 07.10.2019

    On Monday, EURUSD is consolidating, but may yet resume its growth.

    The major currency pair is doing fine early in another October week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

    Last Friday, the USA published several September reports on employment, which turned out to be quite good after all. The Unemployment Rate wasn’t expected to change, but it dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, which is the lowest level since 1969.

    The Average Hourly Earnings remained unchanged in comparison with the August reading. However, on YoY, the indicator showed +2.9% in September after being +3.2% in the previous month. It’s not good news, but there are no reasons to worry so far. The Non-Farm Employment Change was 136K in September and it’s the lowest indicator value over the last four months. However, the August reading was revised upwards, up to 168K, and that made investors happy.

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    The Euro is barely moving. Overview for 08.10.2019

    On Tuesday, EURUSD is barely moving; the pair is saving strengths in anticipation of news.

    The major currency pair is standing still in comparison with yesterday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0980.

    Right now, the USD is looking stable, because the entire investment world is braced for another upcoming round of US-China trade talks. It’s not easy to predict where it may lead to, but investors have great expectations ща this event.

    In the evening, there will be a lot of numbers from the USA. For example, the country is going to report on the Producer Price Index for September, which is expected to add 0.1% m/m, the same as in August. The Core PPI may expand by 0.2% m/m after adding 0.3% m/m the month before.

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    The Euro is fighting for yesterday’s losses. Overview for 09.10.2019

    In the middle of the week, the major currency pair is recovering after yesterday’s losses; investors are analyzing the Fed’s intentions.

    EURUSD is growing on Wednesday afternoon, but investors are very cautious. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0987.

    Demand for the USD is not as active as before, because investors’ hopes for successful trade negotiations between the USA and China are fading: there was no new information relating to the trade talks. As a result, market players switched to other assets, thus helping the major currency pair to recover.

    While delivering the speech yesterday, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told about the regulator’s intentions to expand its portfolio of government-backed securities. It is about Treasury Bills, but investors are sure to take it as some kind of “compact” QE. Powell himself explained several times that this procedure was necessary for recovering the regulator’s balance, not for supporting the financial system. Nothing was said about the program volume, but Powell mentioned that it wouldn’t be too big.

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