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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Yen decided to retreat. Overview for 12.11.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, USDJPY is changing direction in favor of a new correction.

    After strengthening for a couple of days, the Japanese Yen is falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 109.27.

    The Yen rarely pays attention to the statistics, because investors use it as a “safe haven” asset in times of market instability. However, there are interesting things to check here.

    For example, the Core Machinery Orders lost 2.9% m/m in September. Market expectations were +0.9% m/m, but the indicator remained negative, which means that domestic demand for these goods remains under pressure – companies are still not sure that they will be able to get their expenses back.

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    The New Zealand Dollar skyrocketed. Overview for 13.11.2019

    On Wednesday, NZDUSD updated its weekly highs after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the key interest rate intact.

    The New Zealand Dollar cheered up after the RBNZ’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged during its November meeting. The current quote for NZDUSD is 0.6401.

    So, during its regular meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t change the key interest rate and left it at 1.0%. However, market players expected it to be cut by 25 basis points, down to 0.75%.

    The fact that the country’s Central Bank decided not to cut the rate is quite surprising, at least: the regulator was expected to follow the path of other Central Banks and loosen its monetary policy to support the global trend. However, it seems like the situation in the New Zealand economy allows to stay away from global tendencies and follow events in the world closely. At the same time, it’s quite obvious that lower interest rates might help the country somehow because New Zealand couldn’t escape global trade wars.

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    A stressful day for the Aussie. Overview for 14.11.2019

    On Thursday, AUDUSD is falling influenced by the numbers from Australia and China.

    The Australian Dollar is boosting its decline against the USD on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 0.6797.

    The statistics from Australia published earlier today didn’t impress. The Unemployment Rate went from 5.2% in September to 5.3% in October, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change showed -19K in October against the expected reading of +16.2K. By the way, the September reading was revised downwards, from 14.7 to 12.5K.

    Later, China also published several reports that were quite disappointing. The Chinese statistics are very important for Australia because China is the country’s key trade and economic partner. So, the Industrial Production in China added only 4.7% y/y in October after showing +5.8% y/y the month before. The indicator was expected to fall a little bit (+5.5% y/y), but not as much as it really did.

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    The Euro reached stability on Friday. Overview for 15.11.2019

    At the end of this trading week, the major currency pair slowed down its decline and started consolidating.

    EURUSD stopped falling, but for how long? The current quote for the instrument is 1.1019.

    The second estimate of the Euro Area’s GDP showed no changes, +0.2% q/q, the same as before. But the statistics from the USA were more optimistic: the PPI added 0.4% m/m in October after losing 0.3% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of +0.3% m/m. The Core PPI showed +0.3% m/m after being -0.3% m/m in September.

    The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke yesterday, said that uncertainty with import tariffs was paralyzing activities of American companies. Due to this, investment issue also remains unsettled and that’s not good for the economy. Powell also noticed that the American national debt was growing faster than the country’s economic system and that’s not acceptable. Sooner or later, the “ballooning” national debt will make the USA put its budget into order, but not right now.

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    The Euro keeps its hope alive. Overview for 18.11.2019

    On Monday, the major currency pair is hoping to continue growing.

    EURUSD remains “in the black” on Monday. Demand for “safe haven” assets will be quite low as long as there is any hope whatsoever that the US-China trade talks end in success. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1060.

    There won’t be any interesting reports from the USA and Europe in today’s economic calendar.

    This week, the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which investors may find interesting. The possibility is that the regulator may provide details of its decision to loosen the monetary policy, as well as hint at further activities and possible rate cuts if necessary.

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    The Australian Dollar is under pressure again. Overview for 19.11.2019

    AUDUSD is falling on Tuesday morning; the pair remains under bearish pressure.

    The Australian Dollar is retreating against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6799.

    In the morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia published its latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which couldn’t surprise anybody: the regulator continued following the labor market and assessing external background, which was suffering from global wars.

    At the same time, it’s obvious that major business processes in Australia are slowing down: market players’ attention is completely focused on the trade talks between the US and Chinese officials, who just have no luck signing the first phase of the trade agreement.

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    The Yen stopped growing, but not for long. Overview for 20.11.2019

    USDJPY stopped falling on Wednesday, but the decline potential remains.

    The Japanese Yen stopped falling against the USD in the middle of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 108.54.

    Demand for the Japanese currency may return at any moment: the US President Donald Trump yesterday once again threatened China to introduce more import tariffs if the trade agreement wasn’t signed on conditions favorable to the White House.

    In the morning, Japan reported on the Trade Balance in October, which showed that the Export plummeted by 9.2% y/y. The indicator has been decreasing for the eleventh month in a row, and that’s the longest period since 2016. The components of the report show that key contributions to the current decline were made by raw materials (-16.5%), manufactured goods (-13.4%), machinery (-12.9%), chemicals (-9.7%), electrical machinery (-8.3%), transport equipment (-7.4%), and foodstuff (-5.2%).

    More than half of the Japanese export goes to Asian countries, so among the main trading partners in Asia, exports were mainly dragged by sales to China (-10.3%), Korea (-23.1%), Singapore (-14.6%), and Thailand (-14.6%). The Export to the USA lost 11.4% y/y.

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    The USD did want to grow, but failed nevertheless. Overview for 21.11.2019

    On Thursday, the major currency pair is consolidating after a pretty volatile trading session yesterday.

    EURUSD got into the turbulence zone yesterday, but investors calmed down quite quickly. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

    Investors’ attention is still focused on US-China trade talks. The talks were put on hold, which makes market players very nervous. To get things even more complicated, the US Senate passed a bill that implies annual confirmation of the Hongkong autonomy. Beijing already stated that it would brook no interference into the country’s internal affairs from any third parties, and this story might complicate further trade negotiations. It may well be that the agreement won’t be signed until the end of this year, thus increasing investors’ demand for “safe haven” assets.

    The FOMC Meeting Minutes published yesterday says that there is no need to continue cutting the rate unless the country’s economy gest much worse. The regulator said it believed that the external uncertainty got a bit lower and called the previous rate cut insurance against economic slowdown.

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    The Yen has corrected. Overview for 22.11.2019

    On Friday, USDJPY is slowly growing; the Yen paid no attention to the statistics on inflation.

    The Japanese Yen is retreating a little bit against the USD at the end of the week. The current quote for the instrument is 108.63.

    Demand for the Yen is somehow reducing due to some balance in the US-China trade talks. Nothing in particular, but investors calmed down.

    In the morning, Japan reported on inflation in October. The National Core CPI added 0.4% y/y after showing +0.3% y/y in September. The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy expanded by 0.7% y/y, which is more than the month before (+0.5% y/y).

    The components of the report show that the furniture and household utensils added 4.2%, while clothes & footwear showed +1.2%. At the same time, electricity lost 1.0%, gas 0.4%, transportation & communication 1.0%, education 7.8%, and miscellaneous goods & services dropped by 2.9%.

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    EURUSD intends to wait for news. Overview for 25.11.2019

    The major currency pair is waiting for the news and moving pretty calmly early in another November week.

    On Monday, EURUSD is barely moving; investors are still waiting for the news relating to the US-China trade talks. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1025.

    According to Bloomberg, last weekend “China said it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights in an attempt to address one of the sticking points in trade talks with the U.S.” Market players liked this piece of news: it means that the parties are ready to discuss and solve one of the most topical issues in their trade wars. However, there was nothing more, that’s why public markets are quiet once again.

    The statistics published by the USA last Friday were in favor of the USD. The Markit Manufacturing PMI increased up to 52.2 points in November after being 51.3 points the month before. The Markit Services PMI went from 50.6 points in October to 51.6 points this month. Both improvements are very good, but one should remember that the official numbers are usually a little bit worse.

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