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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Yen is trying to strengthen. Overview for 29.07.2019

    On the last Monday of July, USDJPY is trading downwards; investors are very cautious in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

    The Japanese Yen is slowly growing against the USD on Monday morning while market players are deciding on their weekly strategies and monitoring the American currency. The current quote for the instrument is 108.56.

    In the morning, Japan reported on the Retail Sales in June, which added 0.5% y/y after expanding by 1.3% y/y the month before and against the expected reading of +0.2% y/y. The fact that the indicator remains positive is surely good, but the slowdown means that the retail sales sector is very unlikely to provide significant support to the GDP growth.

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    The Yen is trying to rise again. Overview for 30.07.2019

    USDJPY is making another attempt to fall; investors are focused on meetings of central banks.

    On Tuesday morning, the Japanese Yen is getting stronger against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 108.65.

    The numbers published in the morning showed that the Unemployment Rate in Japan fell from 2.4% in May to 2.3% in June, although it wasn’t expected to change.

    The Industrial Production lost 3.6% m/m in June. It’s a preliminary report, but it doesn't make it any better. The month before, the indicator added 2.0% m/m, while the expected reading was -1.8% m/m.

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    The Euro is looking up. Overview for 31.07.2019

    The major currency pair is pretty confident despite weak numbers from the Euro Area and anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting results.

    On Wednesday morning, EURUSD is keeping its momentum, although there isn’t too much buying. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1150.

    The CB Consumer Confidence report published yesterday showed improvement up to 135.7 points in July after being 124.3 points in June and against the expected reading of 125.1 points. The components of the report are quite optimistic: the Present Situation Index increased up to 170.9 points, while the Expectations Index – up to 112.2 points.

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    Markets decided to believe in the USD. Overview for 01.08.2019

    The major currency pair is getting significantly weaker after the US Federal Reserve July meeting. The rate cut isn’t the start of a new “softening” cycle.

    EURUSD continues falling after the US Federal Reserve July meeting and the comments from Jerome Powell. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1043.

    So, during the July meeting, the FOMC cut its rate by 25 basis points down to 2.0-2.25%, just as expected. However, investors were too impressed by the comments from Jerome Powell that followed later. The Chairman said that the current rate value wasn’t the start of a new consequent cycle of loosening the regulator’s monetary policy.

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    The Euro stopped falling. Overview for 02.08.2019

    On Friday morning, EURUSD stopped plummeting; it is ready to reach stability.

    At the end of this volatile week, the major currency pair is ready to consolidate. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1080.

    Yesterday, the US President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs (10%) on Chinese goods starting September 1st, 2019. In total, it’s about goods worth 300 billion USD. However, these new sanctions don’t mean that the previous 25% were cancelled. Trump said that he liked China, but the pace the Chinese government was working at wasn’t good for the United States.

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    The Euro is in a comatose state. Overview for 19.08.2019

    EURUSD is weak at the beginning of another August week and there are reasons to believe that the situation may get much worse. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1090. Last week was pretty stressful for the European currency due to strengthening of the USD, weak number form the Euro Area and Germany, and rather mixed comments from the German government.

    The Euro Area GDP added only 0.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2019 after expanding by 0.4% q/q the quarter before – no one expected such insignificant improvement. In this case, negative contribution was made by unimpressive numbers from Germany: its economy lost 0.1% q/q over this period of time, thus triggering more fears of possible recession and slowdown in Germany among market players.

    However, as for slowdown, investors very quickly got signals, which helped the situation reach stability: the German government along with the German Federal Ministry of Finance said that they were ready to settle for the budget deficit if the country’s economy started falling into a recession. This was a pretty bold statement, which meant that the German authorities were really getting ready to stand against recession. It’s good for the Euro.

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    EURUSD remains under pressure. Overview for 20.08.2019

    The major currency pair continues falling, but not as fast as before.

    On Tuesday afternoon, EURUSD remains under bearish pressure, but not as much as earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1079.

    This week, investors are focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is scheduled to start on Friday. Market players are expecting a speech from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and believe that he may say something about the regulator’s monetary policy. Most investors think that the FOMC will stick to “soft” approach to its monetary policy and prepare a basis for further rate cuts.

    However, one should understand that the numbers published by the USA recently were quite neutral and showed that the American economy didn’t require any incentives.

    And if the FOMC does intend to continue cutting its rates in the future, in Jackson Hole market players will surely hear something like “wish the retail sales were more dynamic” or “wish the consumer spending were more significant”. In other words, bankers and monetary policymakers have to signal that the country’s economy is ready for further rate cuts, even if is not true.

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    The Euro couldn’t keep momentum. Overview for 21.08.2019

    EURUSD was moving upwards last night influenced the Italian news, but couldn’t continue the momentum.

    EURUSD is under slight pressure on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1094.

    The Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned from his position and the country’s President accepted his resignation. The reason is internal political turmoil that split the governing coalition consisted of two parties, “Five Star Movement” and “Northern League” (Italian “Movimento 5 Stelle” and “Lega Nord” respectively). Conte shifted the responsibility for this onto Matteo Salvini, the Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and the Secretary of Lega Nord.

    It appears that the parliament will be dissolved and the President will call new elections.

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    EURUSD is waiting for what Powell has to say. Overview for 23.08.2019

    On Friday, the major currency is under pressure again; investors are focused on events in Jackson Hole.

    EURUSD changed the direction once again on Friday afternoon; right now, it is moving downwards. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1069.

    Today at 5 PM Moscow time, the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech in Jackson Hole. He is widely expected to make some announcements on further prospects of the US monetary policy. The regulator may say something about the QE. Or Powell may confirm that the USA is going to continue the procedure of cutting the rate and explain why. If he does speak of softening the regulator’s monetary policy, the USD will get under serious pressure.

    The FOMC Meeting Minutes published earlier confirmed that the USA set a course for loosening, that’s why market players want Powell to say about this as much as possible.

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    EURUSD is correcting. Overview for 26.08.2019

    The major currency pair is correcting early in the final week of August; investors require “safe haven” assets.

    After a positing trading session last Friday, EURUSD is back to falling. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1112.

    There are few statistics today, but those numbers, which have already been published, aren’t in favor of the Euro. The German Ifo Business Climate dropped to 94.3 points in August after being 95.7 points in July, which is worse than expected. Later in the afternoon, the USA are scheduled to report on the Durable Goods Orders in July, which is expected to add 1.4% m/m after expanding by 1.9% m/m the month before. The indicator itself is rather volatile, it should be interesting to look at the components.

    Investors’ attention is focused on the latest escalation in the US-China trade wars, which may support the USD: as long as both countries are fighting each other for the sphere of influence in the global economy, market players require “safe haven” assets to escape risks. Last week, China announced import tariffs of US goods on 75 billion USD, so the United States immediately responded, but several times more.

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