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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Yen decided to retreat. Overview for 12.11.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, USDJPY is changing direction in favor of a new correction.

    After strengthening for a couple of days, the Japanese Yen is falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 109.27.

    The Yen rarely pays attention to the statistics, because investors use it as a “safe haven” asset in times of market instability. However, there are interesting things to check here.

    For example, the Core Machinery Orders lost 2.9% m/m in September. Market expectations were +0.9% m/m, but the indicator remained negative, which means that domestic demand for these goods remains under pressure – companies are still not sure that they will be able to get their expenses back.

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    The New Zealand Dollar skyrocketed. Overview for 13.11.2019

    On Wednesday, NZDUSD updated its weekly highs after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the key interest rate intact.

    The New Zealand Dollar cheered up after the RBNZ’s decision to leave the interest rate unchanged during its November meeting. The current quote for NZDUSD is 0.6401.

    So, during its regular meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t change the key interest rate and left it at 1.0%. However, market players expected it to be cut by 25 basis points, down to 0.75%.

    The fact that the country’s Central Bank decided not to cut the rate is quite surprising, at least: the regulator was expected to follow the path of other Central Banks and loosen its monetary policy to support the global trend. However, it seems like the situation in the New Zealand economy allows to stay away from global tendencies and follow events in the world closely. At the same time, it’s quite obvious that lower interest rates might help the country somehow because New Zealand couldn’t escape global trade wars.

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    A stressful day for the Aussie. Overview for 14.11.2019

    On Thursday, AUDUSD is falling influenced by the numbers from Australia and China.

    The Australian Dollar is boosting its decline against the USD on Thursday. the current quote for the instrument is 0.6797.

    The statistics from Australia published earlier today didn’t impress. The Unemployment Rate went from 5.2% in September to 5.3% in October, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Employment Change showed -19K in October against the expected reading of +16.2K. By the way, the September reading was revised downwards, from 14.7 to 12.5K.

    Later, China also published several reports that were quite disappointing. The Chinese statistics are very important for Australia because China is the country’s key trade and economic partner. So, the Industrial Production in China added only 4.7% y/y in October after showing +5.8% y/y the month before. The indicator was expected to fall a little bit (+5.5% y/y), but not as much as it really did.

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    The Euro reached stability on Friday. Overview for 15.11.2019

    At the end of this trading week, the major currency pair slowed down its decline and started consolidating.

    EURUSD stopped falling, but for how long? The current quote for the instrument is 1.1019.

    The second estimate of the Euro Area’s GDP showed no changes, +0.2% q/q, the same as before. But the statistics from the USA were more optimistic: the PPI added 0.4% m/m in October after losing 0.3% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of +0.3% m/m. The Core PPI showed +0.3% m/m after being -0.3% m/m in September.

    The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke yesterday, said that uncertainty with import tariffs was paralyzing activities of American companies. Due to this, investment issue also remains unsettled and that’s not good for the economy. Powell also noticed that the American national debt was growing faster than the country’s economic system and that’s not acceptable. Sooner or later, the “ballooning” national debt will make the USA put its budget into order, but not right now.

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    The Euro keeps its hope alive. Overview for 18.11.2019

    On Monday, the major currency pair is hoping to continue growing.

    EURUSD remains “in the black” on Monday. Demand for “safe haven” assets will be quite low as long as there is any hope whatsoever that the US-China trade talks end in success. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1060.

    There won’t be any interesting reports from the USA and Europe in today’s economic calendar.

    This week, the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to publish the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which investors may find interesting. The possibility is that the regulator may provide details of its decision to loosen the monetary policy, as well as hint at further activities and possible rate cuts if necessary.

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