Forex Fundamental analysis - Page 6
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Thread: Forex Fundamental analysis

  1. #51

    Counter move of the Federal Reserve. Fundamental analysis for 15.03.2016

    After the key rate of the FRS was expectedly increased late last year, the question about the regulator’s future plans was put point-blank. One of the main risks of a new cycle of rates increase was the reaction of the markets, but stock indices decline turned out to be just another correction within the uptrend, so there was no “collapse”. Consequently, during the next several months, we can expect one more increase of the key rate, but it’s not quite clear during which exactly FOMC meeting it may happen.

    As a matter of fact, another meeting of the regulator is taking place these days, the results will be announced on Wednesday, but we will hardly witness any particular actions on the part of the FRS. However, after the decision is announced, Janet Yellen is planning to hold a press conference where she might say something specific about the time and the meeting when the FRS is going to increase the rate for the second time. Probably, it might be in April or June.

    Of course, much will depend on the statistics – so far it’s all according to the regulator’s forecasts made last year. For instance, at year-end 2016, the regulator expected the unemployment to be 4,7%, but at the end of February the indicator “held” January’s decline and resulted into 4,9%. At the same time, growth of incomes remain very weak, which may be highly risky for the FRS amidst the increasing inflation (1,7% on a year-on-year basis).


  2. #52

    The Yen is getting a bit more expensive. Overview for 21.03.2016

    The USD/JPY pair is strengthening on Monday after three idle sessions in a row; there is no any important news, as before.

    At the beginning of the week, the Japanese Yen is slowly growing against the US Dollar. The current quote for the instrument is 111.35 as it is again moving close to the downside border of its mi-term trading range. Starting January 30th, the Yen has strengthened against the US Dollar by 9.18% on average. This is too much, considering that the strong Yen does damage to exporters and decreases their profit.

    Deutsche Bank report says that the Japanese Central Bank is going to expand its motivation program in the nearest future. Horizon of expectations is not more than three months. There is no point in decreasing the interest rate, which is already negative, but it’s there are resources to increase QE.


  3. #53

    The Yen is retreating. Overview for 23.03.2016

    The USD/JPY pair is growing for the third day in a row; the Yen is weakening little by little, but it’s normally.

    The Japanese Yen is trading downwards on Wednesday. The current quote for the instrument is 112.70. The pair is being bought for the third consecutive day. Step by step, the price is moving away from March’s lows. The fact that the Yen is weakening will support exporters, which means that the budget may feel a bit relief.

    On Wednesday, the Japanese authorities worsened their assessment of economic factors, for the first time in five months. The government report says that local economy became less active. Signs of weakening in some areas of the country’s economic system result in worse assessment of the current situation. Overall, right now the situation in the Japanese economy is estimated as carefully as in autumn of 2014.


  4. #54

    The Yen is under pressure. Overview for 24.03.2016

    The USD/JPY pair continue growing on the “thin” market; the statistics published this morning turned out to be quite unclear.

    The Japanese Yen is still under pressure from the US Dollar. The current quote for the instrument is 112.97 as it is clearly moving towards 114.0.

    The morning statistics showed that the inflation in Japan on a year-on-year basis hasn’t changed in February. The core inflation in the country is 0.3% y/y against the predicted number of zero. Too low commodity prices are slowing down the CPI and the weak domestic consumption.

    Such nuance as unequal inflation may be the reason, which influences the entire monetary policy of the BoJ. The QE was expanded, negative rates were introduced, but the consumption wouldn’t increase. This is a problem, which was impossible to foresee “on shore”. But is has to be solved by all means.


  5. #55

    The Yen is again close to its highs. Overview for 06.04.2016

    On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair is trading near multi-month highs; the Yen is getting more expensive again.

    One can only envy the Japanese Yen’s firmness. On Wednesday afternoon, the USD/JPY pair is falling and moving close to 110.40. It is lower than it’s been over a year. On one hand, very soon capital markets will once again need “safe haven” currencies, and the Yen has won back this status recently. On the other hand, internal signals from the Japanese economy hardly inspires the currency equilibrium.

    It was the Japanese prime minster, Mr. Abe, who gave an unmeant cause for the currency to “ride a currency rollercoaster” yesterday. He said that the authorities should better stay away from any market interventions in order not to put pressure on currencies. The politician had in mind financial interventions of course, however his words sounded much alike verbal interventions. The Yen has never been afraid of it.


  6. #56

    Pressure on the Dollar is rising. Overview for 07.04.2016

    There was nothing sensational and extraordinary in the “minutes” of the Federal Reserve, but the bored market managed to find there something to help it to move.

    After a short pause, the EUR/USD pair is back to growing. Investors were too sensitive to the news, which cloud hardly be called the news: the minutes of the US Federal Reserve System meeting published yesterday simply confirmed the things said earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1423.

    So, the document says that the obstacles for the economic growth will disappear gradually or even slow, and there is no need to hurry when increasing the interest rates. In fact, this is what affected trading participants, although there is absolutely nothing new about it, because earlier Janet Yellen, the head of the FRS, said twice that the rate would be increased at a low pace.


  7. #57

    The Australian Dollar is retreating after all. Overview for 14.04.2016

    The correction has started in the AUD/USD pair, but the chances are very good that active buyers may return.

    On Thursday, the Australian Dollar is retreating a little bit against its American colleague. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7645. The April peak was 0.7715, the March one – 0.7722. At the moment, the instrument is exactly in the middle of the short-term trading range and stands a good chance to return to its highs if the market demand changes again.

    Today’s statistics showed that the unemployment rate in Australia in March decreased up to 5.7% against the previous number of 5.8%. Forecasts were more pessimistic and predicted the increase up to 5.9%. Usually, such tendency in the unemployment rate is a good factor for the Australian Dollar, but right now the market pays very little attention to fundamental statistics.


  8. #58

    The Euro is being sold. Overview for 21.04.2016

    The main currency pair hasn’t been able to keep a positive impulse and right now is retreating; the meeting of the ECB is ahead.

    On Thursday afternoon, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1292.

    Yesterday it became known that the sales of secondary housing in March in the USA increased by 5.1% up to 5.33 million units, which is much bigger than the number was in February, 5.07 million. On a year-on-year basis, the indicator increased by 1.5%. It’s a very good result taking into account the fact that American consumers tend to hold onto the cash and wait for more stable period to make some expensive purchases.


  9. #59

    The Australian Dollar is regaining positions. Overview for 29.04.2016

    The AUD/USD pair is trading upwards for the second day in a row, supported by the statistics and the weakness of the American currency.

    The Australian Dollar is feeling quite well, recovering from the decline in the middle of the week, and the weakness of the US Dollar could not have come at a better time. The current quote for the AUD/USD pair is 0.7641.

    According to the statistics published today, the producer price index in Australia in the first quarter 2016 increased by 1.2% y/y, which is good. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the indicator reduced by 0.2% against the predicted increase by the same number.


  10. #60

    The Australian Dollar has stabilized. Overview for 05.05.2016

    The AUD/USD pair is trading a bit upwards after significant sales over the last couple of trading sessions.

    The Australian Dollar stabilized on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7476.

    Today’s statistics indicated that retails sales in Australia in March increased by 0.4% m/m against the expected number of 0.3% m/m. The data in February, in its turn, was revised in favor of the improved number of 0.1% against zero at the first time. Improvement of retail sales indicator is usually considered as a good sign in the economy. The increase in retail sales supports the cost of the Australian Dollar.


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