Forex Fundamental analysis - Page 64
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Thread: Forex Fundamental analysis

  1. #631

    The Euro is sluggish. Overview for 26.11.2019

    The major currency pair stopped falling; right now, it is consolidating, but it’s not for long.

    EURUSD stopped sliding down. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1013.

    Nothing interesting is happening in financial markets at the moment, so the major currency pair is barely moving as well. Yesterday, the American and Chinese officials talked on the phone and both said that it was necessary to continue negotiations. Nothing special, the same words that were said before on several occasions. In the meantime, investors may finally be tired of waiting endlessly for any progress and bears will take charge.

    There was nothing important or interesting in the information flow, so market players prefer to save their strengths.

    The only thing that makes shake financial market right now is the macroeconomic calendar. In the evening, the USA is scheduled to report on the Trade Balance for October. Apart from this, the country will publish preliminary numbers on the Wholesale Inventories, which may recover after plunging in September, and the New Home Sales (both for October), which is expected to show 708K after being 701K in the previous month.

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  2. #632

    The Euro is under pressure again. Overview for 27.11.2019

    The major currency pair got under pressure on Wednesday morning; investors can’t find reasons for stability.

    EURUSD moved upwards a little bit yesterday, but this morning the pair lost everything it “gained” earlier. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1009.

    Yesterday, the major currency pair was supported by a gleam of optimism referring to slight progress in the US-China trade talks. However, after the American and Chinese officials talked on the phone and both said that it was necessary to continue negotiations, market players were braced for more details, but nothing happened.

    The statistics published by the USA weren’t too good for the USD. The New Home Sales showed 733K in November after being 738K the month before and it was still better than expected. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence was 125.5 points in November after being 126.1 points in the previous month and against the expected reading of 126.9 points.

    The decline of the indicator means that the consumer sentiment in the USA is getting worse, which, in its turn, means a reduction of expenses. It’s not a good signal for the USD and the American economy.

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  3. #633

    The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 28.11.2019

    On Thursday morning, EURUSD is consolidating; however, it remains under pressure, mostly because of external background.

    EURUSD stopped falling and started consolidating, but the market sentiment is still bearish. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1006.

    External background keeps investors in suspense. Yesterday, the US President Donald Trump signed two Hong Kong laws and Beijing vowed retaliation, thus leading market players to the conclusion that the trade talks may reach a deadlock again. According to Reuters, “The “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act,” which the Senate and House passed last week, puts the special treatment Hong Kong enjoys under U.S. law under tighter scrutiny linked to the extent of the territory’s autonomy from Beijing.” Of course, in American reality, this law may be stretched as the USA chooses. China said on several occasions in the past that it would brook no interference with the country’s internal affairs. So now, after the laws are signed, Beijing is ready to cut the talk and walk the walk.

    The statistics published by the USA yesterday were

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  4. #634

    Demand for the Yen significantly decreased. Overview for 29.11.2019

    On Friday afternoon, USDJPY continues growing but in smaller volumes.

    The Japanese Yen remains weak at the end of November. The current quote for USDJPY is 109.45.

    The statistics published today showed that the Unemployment Rate in Japan remained at 2.4% in October. By the way, the indicator wasn’t expected to change. One should admit that the labor market in Japan is impressively stable given the current economic climate in the country.

    The preliminary report on the Industrial Production in October showed -4.2% m/m. The indicator was expected to be -2.0% m/m while showing +1.7% m/m in the previous months. However, this decline was perfectly anticipated: first of all, the government increased the sales tax, and secondly, global trade wars continue putting pressure on the industrial sector. It keeps getting worse.

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  5. #635

    The Australian Dollar is correcting. Overview for 04.12.2019

    After three trading sessions of stable and significant growth, AUDUSD is moving downwards on Wednesday; the correction is supported by numbers.

    The Aussie started retreating against the USD after several days of growth. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6822.

    The statistics published in the morning showed that the Australian GDP added only 0.4% q/q in the third quarter after expanding by 0.6% q/q the quarter before and against the expected reading of +0.5% q/q. Nevertheless, on YoY the indicator was 1.7%, which is pretty good.

    It is evident that three rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2019 haven’t yet provided the country’s economy with the expected support. At the same time, one should admit that it’s typical for the Australian economy to reverse slowly, both upwards and downwards. It means that in the long run, and the RBA shares this outlook, the GDP will feel this impulse and get more dynamic.

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  6. #636

    The Euro intends to grow. Overview for 06.12.2019

    The major currency pair remains stable on Friday and intends to continue its growth.

    EURUSD is keeping its positive momentum at the end of a very volatile week. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1102.

    The American currency got significantly weaker yesterday due to mixed numbers from the USA. The Factory Orders report showed +0.3% m/m in October after being -0.8% m/m in the previous month. The indicator got a little support from the growth of demand for computers and electronic products, as well as machinery orders, but at the time of weak business activity and manufacturing sector, the growth is rather limited.

    Transportation equipment orders rebounded by +0.7% after losing 3.2% in September. Civilian aircraft and parts increased by 10.7%, but couldn’t completely recover after showing -19.0% the month before.

    It’s quite interesting that orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components dropped 1.8%, thus eliminating growth by 0.9% September.

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  7. #637

    The Euro remains under pressure. Overview for 09.12.2019

    The major currency pair surrendered last Friday because of the American statistics; right now, it is still under pressure.

    On Monday afternoon, EURUSD is balancing under zero gravity, but bears seem to be pretty strong. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1064.

    The numbers of the US labor market published last Friday provided as much support to the USD as possible. The Unemployment Rate hit the 50-year low at 3.5% in November after being 3.6% the month before, although the indicator wasn’t expected to change. Another report, the Non-Farm Employment Change showed 266K over the same period of time after being 156K in October. The forecast was 181K, but the actual reading exceeded expectations.

    The report on the Average Hourly Earnings, which showed +0.2% m/m (worse than both previous and expected readings) couldn’t spoil the mood.

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  8. #638

    The Pound started Wednesday in a drawdown. Overview for 11.12.2019

    GBPUSD is falling on Wednesday morning; investors are “digesting” the statistics and waiting for the US Fed meeting.

    The British Pound couldn’t keep its positive momentum and right now is falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3130.

    Yesterday, the United Kingdom published quite interesting numbers, but the Pound barely responded to them, because market players were and still are focused on the upcoming early parliamentary elections, which are scheduled on December 12th. However, there was no news about this topic in the morning, that’s why investors switched to the statistics.

    The British GDP didn’t change in comparison with the previous reading, although it was expected to add 0.1% m/m. Consequently, the UK’s economy stagnated in October, which is not good for the national currency at all.

    The Industrial Production added 0.1% m/m in October, thus recovering a little bit after losing 0.3% m/m in the previous month. The forecast was +0.2% m/m, but the sector wasn’t ready for such growth because businesses couldn’t be sure whether the Brexit would happen or postponed again.

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  9. #639

    The Pound skyrocketed to its highs. Overview for 13.12.2019

    GBPUSD is heading towards the highs of spring of 2018 after preliminary results of the early parliamentary elections were announced.

    The British Pound almost reached the highs of May 2018 against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.3410.

    According to the preliminary results, the Conservative party got at least 368 out of 650 seats in the early parliamentary elections that took place yesterday. The party hasn’t seen such strong results for a very long time, while for its opponent, the British Labor Party, they are the worst over 40 years.

    Now, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has to navigate all necessary documents for the Brexit through the renewed Parliament. This convocation of the Parliament is expected to be more suitable for ratifying the agreement with the European Union. In case everything goes the way as it should, the United Kingdom may exit the alliance within the specified time, before the end of January 2020.

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  10. #640

    Numbers couldn’t support the Aussie. Overview for 16.12.2019

    AUDUSD is falling early in the week influenced by the strong USD and rather mixed statistics.

    The Australian Dollar is retreating against the USD in the middle of December. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6870.

    In the morning, Australia reported on the Manufacturing PMI, which dropped down to 49.4 points in December after being 49.9 points in the pre3vious month, thus indicating a continual decline in the sector. The Services PMI in Australia decreased down to 49.5 points after showing 49.7 points in November, which is also pretty bad for the Aussie because should be vice versa due to the seasonality.

    Numbers from China, no matter how positive they were, couldn’t support the Australian Dollar. The Industrial Production added 6.2% y/y in November and reached its five-month high after showing +4.7% y/y the month before and against the expected reading of +5.1% y/y. Apparently, the indicator improved because of more active domestic demand – the Chinese government put a lot of effort for that.

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