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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Aussie stopped rising. Overview for 10.09.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, AUDUSD took a short break after 6 consecutive trading sessions of stable growth.

    The Australian Dollar slowed down its growth against the USD on Tuesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6860.

    The statistics published in the morning showed that the NAB Business Confidence went from 4 points in July to 1 point in August. The indicator describes the sentiments of employees of the largest Australian companies except for the agriculture sector. Readings above and below zero imply improvement and deterioration of business sentiment respectively.

    So far, the indicator is still above zero, but the decline prevents the Aussie from further growth.

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    The Pound is having troubles growing. Overview for 11.09.2019

    On Wednesday, GBPUSD is directed to the upside, but investors are very cautious and barely buying the instrument.

    The British Pound intends to rise against the USD in the middle of the weekб but each successive step is more and more difficult. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2347.

    The Brexit and its possible scenarios are still the key highlight the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s stance has too many unanswered questions. The key scenario right now is the “hardcore” one and the whole Parliament is against it. However, there is little time left for discussions and arrangements, but the Brits, who are usually quite insightful and forethoughtful, are simply wasting it.

    Market players can’t exclude risks of the “no-deal” Brexit, thus putting pressure on the Pound. However, if the Bank of England interferes and implements the QE in case of the “hardcore” Brexit, some negative moments for the country’s economy after exiting may be avoided. But the British regulator is mum on that so far.

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    The Yen is surrendering. Overview for 12.09.2019

    USDJPY is keeping positive momentum and getting close to its six weeks highs.

    The Japanese Yen continues falling against the USD on Thursday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 107.92.

    In the morning, Japan published a lot of numbers. The first one, the Producer Price Index, lost 0.9% y/y in August after reducing by 0.6% y/y in July and against market expectations of -0.8% y/y. The indicator describes the wholesale market prices and if there is a decline in it, there will be the same in the retail prices later.

    The Tertiary Industry Activity added 0.1% m/m in Japan in July, which is quite good, because it was expected to lose 0.3% m/m.

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    The ECB’s soft stance didn’t scare the Euro. Overview for 13.09.2019

    EURUSD is growing a little bit on Friday; investors’ emotions were temporary.

    On Friday, the major currency is quite stable – stable enough to be admired. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1066.

    Following the results of its September meeting, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates and revive the QE program. However, the key rate remained unchanged. The regulator cut the deposit rate to -0.50% from -0.40%. The rate on the main refinancing operations and the rate on the marginal lending facility also remained the same, at 0.00% and 0.25% respectively.

    Starting November 1st, 2019, the ECB revives the stimulus program in the monthly amount of 20 billion EUR. According to the regulator’s statement, the program will continue as long as it has to for being effective. After the program is over, reinvestments of principal payments will continue for a long time even after the ECB starts increasing the rates.

    At the same time, TLTRO-III will also continue because it is necessary for the regional economy’s transition to soft monetary policy and favorable bank lending conditions.

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    EURUSD will wait for decisions from the Fed. Overview for 16.09.2019

    Early in another September week, EURUSD is quite stable; major news and events are ahead.

    The major currency pair is barely moving at the beginning of another September week as investors are totally focused on the oil market. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1070.

    Only China published several macroeconomic reports this morning; no new numbers are expected from both the USA and the Euro Area.

    This week’s major focus will be on the September meeting of the American regulator, which is scheduled to start on Tuesday and last until Wednesday evening, September 18th. The FOMC is expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points. The White House’s pressure is too great for the regulator to continue resisting. Most likely, there will be one more rate cut by the Fed this year, probably in December. The country’s economy is surely in no need of such stimulus right now, but it may happen for political reasons.

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    The Australian Dollar came under sales. Overview for 17.09.2019

    On Tuesday afternoon, AUDUSD is moving downwards; market sentiment is in favor of the USD.

    The Australian Dollar is getting weaker against the USD on Tuesday afternoon. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6841.

    This morning, Australia reported on the HPI for the second quarter of 2019. The indicator lost 0.7% q/q, which was better than the expected reading of -1.0% q/q. By the way, in the first quarter of 2019, the indicator plummeted by 3.0% q/q.

    On YoY, the indicator decreased by 7.4%, the same as the quarter before.

    The decline of the house prices indicates a reduced demand: by decreasing prices, real estate sellers try to attract new customers. However, at the time of economic uncertainty, it doesn’t work as it should.

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    EURUSD is standing still in anticipation of the Fed’s decisions. Overview for 18.09.2019

    On Wednesday, the major currency pair is barely moving; investors are saving strengths in anticipation of news from the US Federal Reserve.

    EURUSD is standing still on Wednesday morning and waiting for the FOMC meeting to be over. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1065.

    Yesterday, the USD weakened a little bit as market players were adjusting their positions before the Fed’s highly anticipated decision to cut the rate. The regulator’s September meeting will be over tonight and investors are expecting the Fed to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. As for CME (Current market expectations) that imply another rate cut until the end of this year, they are 80%. The White House is putting a lot of pressure on the Fed, hammering it for lack of activities, and believes that there should more significant rate cut than 25 basis points. Anyhow, tonight we will learn the regulator’s stance on this.

    Yesterday’s numbers from Germany supported the European currency pretty well. The ZEW Economic Sentiment went up from -44.1 points in July to -22.5 points in August. Of course, the indicator remains negative and the current correction doesn’t mean any bright future in the next 6 months, but the fact of recovery is surely positive.

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    The Fed cut the rate, but the USD managed to endure. Overview for 19.09.2019

    EURUSD had time to respond to the Fed’s decisions and comments, but investors were ready.

    All decisions and comments after the US Federal Reserve September meeting were quickly taken into account by market players. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1040.

    So, the Fed cut the rate by 25 basis points, down to 1.71-2.00%, just as expected. In the comments, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that, first of all, the current decision didn’t mean any changes in the regulator’s monetary policy, and secondly, the Fed didn’t “kowtow” to the White House. The rate was cut in order to boost economic growth and nothing else. Well, it seems like a fitting reply to Donald Trump.

    By the way, Trump was very dissatisfied with the Fed’s decision, because he didn’t see any prospects or the larger picture outlook.

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    EURUSD is holding balance. Overview for 23.09.2019

    After taking into account all news that was published earlier, EURUSD managed to find support.

    Early in another September week, the major currency pair is looking quite stable and confident. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1023.

    The key highlight of this week will be the resumption of trade talks between the USA and China. Last Thursday, the parties already met and tried to resume the dialog, but no constructive feedback was reported. At the same time, the fact of resumption is surely very positive and may lower the risk level on financial markets.

    There will be a lot of minor numbers in the economic calendar from the Euro Area and some of its countries today. For example, preliminary September reports of the Manufacturing and Services PMI from France, Germany, and the Euro Area, which may show a little positive. The European currency won’t get much support from this, but it’s still good for keeping fundamental background stable.

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    The Yen slowed down its recovery, but may resume it at any moment. Overview for 24.09.2019

    On Tuesday morning, USDJPY stopped falling, but demand for the Yen may revive very soon.

    After yesterday’s recovery, the Japanese Yen is consolidating against the USD on Tuesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 107.52.

    In the morning, Japan reported on the Manufacturing PMI for September, which was only 48.9 points after being 49.3 points the month before and against the expected reading of 49.5 points. The last time the indicator surpassed 50 points, the level that separates optimists from pessimists, this May, but couldn’t fix above it.

    The key reasons for the current slowdown are the decline of the global economy and the expansion of trade tensions. Everything is very simple: the export-oriented Japanese economy can’t operate at 100% with global trade wars around it.

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