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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    Australian dollar keeps growing. Overview 15.07.2019.

    On Monday the Australian dollar remains strong vs the US dollar, the current quotation being 0.7033.

    In the morning China published the data on its GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019; according to the report, the economy has grown by 6.2% (calculated for a year) in line with the forecasts. The growth of the Chinese economy is the slowest of the last 27 years. Comparing this economy to any other makes little sense; however, it is still obvious that it requires stimulation in order to prevent steep decline in the situation of the trading argument with the USA. Meanwhile, certain data of June has reflected the local stabilization of the economy. The volume of industrial production has grown by 6.3% (calculated for a year), compared to 5.2% forecast and the previous growth of 5.0%.

    Retail sales grew by 9.8% last month (counted for a year), compared to 8.5% forecast. The volume of investments in capital assets, in its turn, grew by 5.8%, which is also more than had been expected.

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    Australian dollar keeps growing. Overview 15.07.2019.

    On Monday the Australian dollar remains strong vs the US dollar, the current quotation being 0.7033.

    In the morning China published the data on its GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019; according to the report, the economy has grown by 6.2% (calculated for a year) in line with the forecasts. The growth of the Chinese economy is the slowest of the last 27 years. Comparing this economy to any other makes little sense; however, it is still obvious that it requires stimulation in order to prevent steep decline in the situation of the trading argument with the USA. Meanwhile, certain data of June has reflected the local stabilization of the economy. The volume of industrial production has grown by 6.3% (calculated for a year), compared to 5.2% forecast and the previous growth of 5.0%.

    Retail sales grew by 9.8% last month (counted for a year), compared to 8.5% forecast. The volume of investments in capital assets, in its turn, grew by 5.8%, which is also more than had been expected.

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    USD uses all chances for strengthening. Overview 17.07.2019.

    EURUSD remains under pressure. Current quotation is 1.1209.

    Strong data on retail in the US slightly reduced the worries about possible aggressive and long-term decrease of the interest rate by the Fed. The indicator grew by 0.4% (calculated monthly) in June, same as the previous month, though the forecasts promised 0.1%.

    The Eurozone is preparing the final inflation statistics of June today. It is most probable that the index will remain at 1.2% (calculated yearly), as forecast before. The final calculation of the basic inflation is not going to make any surprises either, promising 1.1% (calculated yearly). These figures are neutral for EURUSD.

    The US are preparing the data on the number of the foundations for new houses laid in June; the index could have lowered a bit from 1.27 million to 1.26 million. The real estate market have been more than active lately, and the supposed decline in June can be explained by the seasonal factor. The number of building permits in June could have grown up to 1.30 million against 1.29 million.

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    Pound Left The Minimums. Overview 18.07.2019.

    Yesterday the pound finally managed to push off the market “bottom” in the pair with the USD, GBPUSD currently trading at 1.2435.

    Finally, the pound left the 27-month’s minimum. The main depressing factor is still the possibility of exiting the EU by a tough scenario without a transition period. However, the market must have considered the pound excessively oversold. Yesterday’s statistics on the price situation yielded nothing new: the inflation in June remained at 2% (calculated yearly) as expected, the basic inflation grew to 1.8% (calculated yearly) in accordance with the forecasts.

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    Yen Put Strengthening On A Pause. Overview 19.07.2019

    On Friday, the Japanese yen stopped its growth in the pair with the USD. The instrument is currently trading at 107.68.

    In the morning Japan published the data on the basic inflation in June, that grew by 0.6% (counted yearly) against 0.8% the previous month. The statistics was in accordance with the forecasts; no one had expected any miracles here.

    However, the current inflation level is the two years’ minimum, which may prone the Bank of Japan to additional economic stimulation of the economy. Earlier the BoJ already gave such signals, pointing at the possibility of softening the monetary and credit conditions; stimulation may increase by the end of July. This will become even more possible if the Federal Reserve lowers the interest rate on its session this month.

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    Euro begins the week calmly. Overview 22.07.2019

    EURUSD is opening the new week of July in good balance. The current quotations are 1.1220. Today is going to be a quiet day on the exchange market. The macroeconomic calendar is empty, and Monday has all chance to remain calm. However, some news from abroad is worth considering: the world trade wars may soon take a new step, because the US are now planning to bring Vietnam under their control. I was June when the US President Donald Trump first said that Vietnam is abusing the situation, sometimes behaving worse than China. Clearly, he was speaking about its trading behaviour. After the situation with the Chinese export to the USA became complicated, Vietnam developed a robust activity and increased the volume of export to the US. The export is said to have grown to 8% GDP, which is truly a lot. Naturally, Trump does not like it. As early as May Vietnam appeared on the list of countries – currency manipulators, and now it is prone to get increased taxation on its goods.

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    Euro Starts Retreat. Overview 23.07.2019

    By Tuesday morning the major currency pair have started losing its positions. The current EURUSD quotation is 1.1192. For today the US macroeconomic calendar offers a report on the real estate sales on the secondary market in June. The forecast suggests that the indicator has grown to 5.35 million units against 5.34 million units earlier. The statistics is calculated for a year’s time and is issued a month or a month and a half late due to the procedure of data collecting.

    On the one hand, the housing market data is normally very prone to seasonal fluctuations. This might be the current case, as we are in the middle of the holiday season, so even if the real results come different from the forecast, this will not be critical. On the other hand, the housing market is greatly influenced by the demand, pending because of economic problems; luckily, now is not the case, the US economy is rather stable.

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    The Pound Is Unhappy With Boris Johnson. Overview 24.07.2019

    The British pound this morning keeps declining in pair with the US dollar, the current quotation being 1.2432. Britain is getting a new Prime Minister today, the one able to rock the boat of the British policy and lead the country to rather doubtful perspectives. Theresa May, who spent several years struggling for mild Brexit, will serve her last day as the head of the British government this Wednesday and coordinate her resignation with the Queen. The pound is declining slightly in response, but it seems that there are tough times coming.

    What should we know about Boris Johnson, the new Prime Minister? He is the former London mayor. He left the position of the head of Foreign Office in May’s government due to the lack of agreement on Brexit. July 23rd of the present year Johnson won the election for the leader of the Conservative party. This is the party in power, so Johnson will become Prime Minister this Wednesday, as soon as May steps down from office.

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    Pound Stabilized, But For How Long? Overview 25.07.2019

    Thursday morning the British pound is trading calmly in pair with the US dollar, the quotation being 1.2477. Great Britain has got a new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Yesterday we spoke a lot about this person; however, the market prices demonstrate all fears in flesh, so there is nothing else to fear. Anyway, Brexit for Britain is much a deeper issue than a dialog with the EU (or its lack).

    The problem is that the financial sector of the country may lose access to the EU countries, while lords are deciding how to realize the people’s will and not to pay too much. The EU can very quickly toughen the requirements for approval of financial norms for other countries, in which case the rough Brexit will have even adverser effect on the British economy than it is viewed now. This perspective gives little hope to the pound.

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    Euro Tried But Failed. Overview 26.07.2019

    By Friday morning, the euro/dollar is returning under slight market pressure, the quotation currently being 1.1144. НYesterday the European Central Bank had a session that change literally nothing in the credit and monetary policy. All interest rates remained untouched, the main interest rate remained at zero, the deposit rate stayed stable at -0.40% per annum.

    The ECB head Mario Draghi at the end of the session noted, that the perspectives of the euro/dollar growth are seriously impeded by the slow-down of the world economic development and weak international trade. These influences are stronger than the relatively positive dynamics in the employment sector and the trend for wage increasing.

    РThe market had expected much more pronounced signals than it received, so the euro failed to secure at the nervous maximums. According to the ECB, the interest rates will remember at the same or lower level until the first half of the year 2020. What is more, the regulator does not exclude the new launch of the program of Quantitative Easing.

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