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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    The Australian Dollar fell towards the low it reached early in the year. Overview for 15.05.2019

    On Wednesday morning, AUDUSD is falling and testing the levels it last reached on January 3rd 2019.

    The Aussie is speeding up its decline against the USD on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6930. This is the cheapest price for the Australian currency since the beginning of the year.

    In the morning, Australian reported on the Westpac Consumer Sentiment in May, which added only 0.6% after increasing by 1.9% the month before. This is a leading indicator, which shows domestic economic activity. Significant decline of the indicator is a bad signal for the Aussie.

    Apart from its own statistics, the Aussie was let down by a minor signal from China. The Retail Sales increased only by 7.2% y/y in April after adding 8.7% y/y in the previous month. And again, this decline may be caused by the weak supply from producers and manufacturers due to trade wars between the USA and China. The worse the trade environment for China, the worse for Australia as China remains the key trade and economic partner for Australia.

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    The Australian Dollar continues falling. Overview for 16.05.2019

    AUDUSD remains weak; the pair is still trading downwards.

    On Thursday morning, the Australian Dollar is still falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6913. It’s the lowest level since January 3rd 2019, but there is obviously room to continue plunging.

    Apart from the pressure that comes from the US-China trade talks, the Aussie is surely significantly influenced by numbers from Australia, which have been pretty alarming recently.

    In the morning, Australia reported on the Employment Change for April. The indicator increased up to 28.4K after being 27.7K in the previous month, although it was expected to improve.

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    The Euro’s another attempt to grow. Overview for 17.05.2019

    On Friday morning, the major currency pair reached stability. Once again, it is attempting to fix and grow.

    EURUSD was weak yesterday evening, but today investors are trying to buy. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1176.

    The US 10Y rebounded yesterday and supported the USD. Another thing in favor of the American currency was the labor market numbers. The weekly report on the Unemployment Claims showed 212K after being 228K the week before and against the expected reading of 220K.

    Today’s macroeconomic calendar is not too busy. In the afternoon, the Euro Area will report on the CPI in April, which is expected to remain at 1.7% y/y. It’ is lower than the target set by the European Central Bank, 2.0% y/y. the weaker the inflation in the Euro Area, the more probably it will require new tools and conditions to support the economy.

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    EURUSD doesn’t “plough the air”. Overview for 20.05.2019

    The major currency pair is neutral at the beginning of another May week; it is barely moving in anticipation of new catalysts.

    EURUSD had a quite stressful week earlier, so it’s not very active at the beginning of a new one. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1160.

    This week, Monday is not too replete with numbers.

    In fact, the market will be on its own. In the morning, Germany reported on the PPI in for April, which added 0.5% m/m after losing 0.1% m/m in March and against the expected reading of +0.4% m/m. what does this indicator imply? It measures the average change in price of goods and services in three major categories, raw materials, intermediate goods (parts, semi-processed materials), and final goods, sold by manufacturers and producers in the wholesale market during a given period. The most important information is the final goods prices, because they include market sentiment. The indicator has no influence on EURUSD behavior, but may provide insight to inflation and deflation aspects.

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    The Euro can’t overcome the pressure. Overview for 22.05.2019

    The major currency pair remains weak on Wednesday; probably, it may update May’s lows.

    EURUSD continues falling on Wednesday; it is getting closer and closer towards May’s lows. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1155.

    Right now, the USD is getting significant support from trade wars. The fact that Asian economies, China in the first place, are starting to experience worse trade and business conditions in the region makes the American currency quite strong. On top of that, the US 10Y increased yesterday, thus providing additional support to the “greenback”.

    There will be no statistics from Europe today. The USA, it its turn, will publish the weekly report on the Crude Oil Inventories. However, investors will closely watch the FOMC Meeting Minutes later in the evening.

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    Bears still dominate the Euro. Overview for 23.05.2019

    The major currency pair is still “in the red”; investors continue selling the instrument.

    On Thursday morning, EURUSD continues falling. The current quote for the pair is 1.1147.

    In the morning, Germany is going to publish the final report on the GDP, which is expected to remain unchanged at +0.4% q/q and that is rather neutral for the Euro. Later, the Euro Area and several its members will publish preliminary reports on the Manufacturing and Services PMI. Recently, most of these reports have shown slowdown, but not too critical.

    In the afternoon, the European Central Bank will publish the Financial Stability Review and the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

    Also, today there will be elections into the European Parliament, featuring the United Kingdom, which failed to exit the European Union so far.

    Closer to the evening, the USA are going to publish their weekly report on the Unemployment Claims, which is not expected to change much, so no one anticipates any serious responses to it. A bit later, there will be Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI for May. These reports may improve a little bit and that’s good for the American currency.

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    The Pound stopped falling. Overview for 24.05.2019

    GBPUSD stopped falling and updating its yearly lows, but it may be just a short break before a new wave of sales.

    On Friday, the British Pound stopped falling against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2671.

    The rumors about possible resignation of the British Prime Minister Theresa May revived yesterday. The Chair of “The 1922 Committee” said that the Parliament was ready to file a no confidence vote to the head of the government unless May resigned as early as on Friday. The Committee has the results of some secret ballot, which show that the government wants to deal with the Brexit in a different way. In no way can they be sure that it will work, but the question remains undetermined: who may replace her in the talks with the European Union? May already did almost impossible, but the British policymakers still aren’t pleased.

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    The Pound is not worrying over May. Overview for 27.05.2019

    GBPUSD was corrected a little bit and stopped moving in anticipation of news.

    On Monday morning, the British Pound is trading carefully against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.2717.

    So, the date of the British Prime Minster Theresa May resignation was announced. It is set to happen on June 7th and the new head of the British Government may be announced as early as on June 20th. There are several candidates, but the strongest one is probably Boris Johnson, who is a quite famous politician.

    However, there is only one “but”: it’s obvious that Johnson is a pushback against everything that May was doing as he was constantly criticizing her actions. There is no guarantee that Johnson will continue May’s policy. He may start doing the opposite and escalate political crisis in the United Kingdom. No one can be sure that the new Prime Minister will be able to handle the British lords, who didn’t want to exit the European Union

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    The Euro is back to falling. Overview for 28.05.2019

    The major currency pair is retreating on Tuesday without any particular reasons.

    EURUSD has been falling for the second consecutive trading session due to the empty macroeconomic calendar and absence of any important news. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1178.

    However, on Monday the European currency was trying to fight and move upwards based on results of elections to the European Parliament. Pro-European parties managed to keep the majority, about two thirds, and prevented nationalist parties from extending their influence in the Parliament. As a result, the parties that are in favor of keeping the Union intact and operating inside it, are still in charge of the EP. In general, this information was rather neutral for the Euro.

    There won’t be too many numbers today.


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    EURUSD continues plunging. Overview for 29.05.2019

    The major currency pair remains under pressure while investors are trying to avoid risks.

    EURUSD remains under close attention of bears on Wednesday morning. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1163.

    Yesterday, greenback was supported not only by investors, who were trying to avoid risks. The statistics published in the evening were pretty good. The CB Consumer Confidence increased up to 134.1 points in May after being 129.2 in April and against the expected reading of 130.1 points. The components of the report show that the Present Situation Index went from 169.0 points to 175.2 points, which is a very good signal for the USD based on stable job gains.

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