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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    Pound remains weak

    The GBP/USD pair is trading lower on Wednesday, and it was the fourth consecutive day of sales of the pound.

    The British Pound continues to recede in tandem with the US currency. The current quote in the GBP/USD pair is 1.4801. The pound stands at the minimum of eight and a half months.

    Yesterday the fans of the pound were upset by expectations – regarding the expanding spread between the monetary policy of the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of England, and about the prospects for the New Year. The later the British regulator starts the phase of raising interest rates and the slower it will be, the greater will be the pressure on the GBP. The market is seriously discussing the probability of a referendum on the UK exit from the EU. It scares the market participants.

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    The euro started the week with a fall

    On Monday, the main currency pair is falling under pressure from the not very fresh Chinese news.

    At the beginning of the week in the macroeconomic calendar has experienced an information vacuum, but investors did not panic, and took advantage of the Chinese statistical data from last weekend. The euro/dollar declines on Monday afternoon, and the current price is 1.0885 (-0.35%).

    So, the world really is watching carefully what is happening in China. Inflation in December in China rose by 0.5% m/m (+ 1.6% y/y) against the forecast of 0.4% m/m and 1.5% y/y. At first glance, these numbers are not bad, but this is misleading. The problem is that the target of the PBOC in 2015 for the Consumer Price Index was at a level of not less than 3%. It turns out that the total indicator of prices in the consumer basket looks quite weak. This, in turn, indicates the small consumer activity and minimal internal demand.

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    The yen is trading indistinctly

    On Tuesday morning, the USD/JPY pair has been quite active, but in the afternoon, there is barely any movement in the instrument.

    The USD/JPY pair is inactive during the second half of the trading day on Tuesday. Investors considered the morning news from Japan and are preparing for the volatility of the evening. The current quotation of the instrument is 117.70. In recent years, the yen has significantly strengthened, and this fact is hardly pleasant to the exporters.

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    The euro begins to retreat

    The main currency pair is losing weight on Wednesday afternoon after the publication of weak European statistics.

    The euro is weakening, although up to this point, even with intraday volatility and a rather strong swaying, it managed to keep a certain balance. The current quotation of the main currency pair is 1.0821 (-0.3%).

    According to statistics released today, industrial production in the euro zone fell more dramatically than expected. In November the index dipped by 0.7% m/m (+ 1.1% y/y) against the October strengthening by 0.8% m/m. The components of the report show that the parameters of the issue of energy (-4.3%) have significantly decreased, and the output of consumer durable goods was reduced. At the same time, some improvements are seen in the component of the production of consumer non-durable goods.

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    The pound is being pulled down

    The GBP/USD pair remains near many week lows, and the Bank of England protocol did not support the pound.

    On Thursday, the British Pound remains under pressure. The GBP/USD pair managed to update a new low at 1.4361, but is trading slightly higher. However, while the turbulence in the currency market remains serious, there is a possibility of the pound updating its lows again.

    Today the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of England were published. The document points to a number of risks for the British economy: for example, the lower-than-expected levels of labor productivity in the country. Moreover, wage growth has slowed down, and it has lowered inflationary pressures. Parameters of crediting are still going up, but even here the impulse does not look the strongest. Low rates were to accelerate the demand for credit products, but the British prefer not to take risks.

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    The Australian dollar sharply weakened

    The AUD/USD on Friday weakened markedly against the background of a possible deterioration in the Chinese economy.

    The Australian dollar on Friday has no luck. The AUD/USD is falling since the beginning of the Asian session, the current price in the instrument is 0.6876. Such a strong intraday fall in the pair has not been seen for nearly a month, since 17 December.

    Investors pay attention to the facts of differences in valuations of the RMB outside the mainland and on the domestic market. The growth of offshore indicators may indicate the willingness of investors toward a new intervention by the NSC. The market is nervous, and it affects the currencies of neighboring countries.

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    The Japanese yen is retreating

    The USD/JPY pair rose slightly on Monday afternoon, but is still close to multi-week lows.

    On Monday, the Japanese yen is retreating, but this movement does not substantially change the balance of forces in the USD/JPY pair. The multi-week lows are still too close. The current price of the pair is 117.29.

    Morning statistics showed that industrial production in Japan at the end of November fell by 0.9% m/m against the forecast of a drawdown of 1.0% m/m. yearly the index added 1.7% while expecting growth of 1.6%. The index of business activity in the service sector in November sank by 0.8%.

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    The Australian dollar tried to rise

    The AUD / USD on Thursday morning attempted to strengthen, but still failed to rise noticeably.

    The Australian dollar on Thursday tried to grow on Chinese news, but the continued worldwide risk aversion has reduced these attempts almost to zero .The current quotation in the AUD/USD pair is 0.6912.

    The PBOC fulfilled their intention of stimulating the economy by increasing liquidity. On Thursday, the Bank of China has poured into the financial system of the country $ 60.79 billion, or 400 billion yuan. This week is truly a record in terms of the volume of financial injections - last time a weekly intervention of similar magnitude were observed in 2012.

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    The Fed has left the dollar vulnerable

    The main currency pair weakened the night before, but in the afternoon on Thursday returned to a narrow trading range.

    On Thursday the euro/dollar is trading reservedly - investors continue to evaluate the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which ended yesterday, the first in the New Year. The current quotation of the instrument is 1.0875.

    Thus, the Fed kept the interest rate in the previous target range of 0.25-0.50% per annum, the last time it was revised in December 2015, after the first phase of a multi-year lull. So, the decision was expected - the time of the revision was too short for the economy to feel any noticeable effect. The Fed accompanying statement was quite mild, although the regulator has promised to raise rates further.

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    A recession is on the horizon. Fundamental analysis for 01.12.2016

    The US economy may soon lose its position as a major driver of the global post-crisis recovery. According to recent studies from Financial Times, the probability of the return of a recession in the US this year is 20%. Parallel to this, the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Fed is decreasing, which could cause frankly weak US statistics, and global risks are growing due to the slowing economic growth in China.

    Beijing already took stock of the past year, and reported on the growth of its economy by 6.9%. Of course, European countries and the USA can only dream of these indicators, but for China it is the minimum growth since 1990. And it seems that the course of the Chinese Communist Party is to turn the economy to domestic consumption is gaining momentum - in 2015 the volume of foreign trade decreased by 7%, while the share of services in GDP for the first time in the history of the country exceeded 50%.

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