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    Forex Fundamental analysis

    Pitfalls in the ECB plans. Fundamental analysis for 26.08.2014

    Mario Draghi’s Friday’s speech in Kansas City marked a significant shift in emphasis in the policy of the ECB. However, over the years of the monetary union the Europeans have taken on so many restrictive measures that the practical realization of all that Draghi said would be extremely difficult. In fact, he shifted the responsibility for low inflation in the national government, calling the last to think about the growth of government spending.

    The fact is that as soon as there was a question about the need to tighten the belt, the European capitals went about it in the simplest way - they mercilessly closed long-term investment projects, which could have served as a basis for future growth. The logic here is more than clear as for the ordinary voter a set of social benefits is far more important. And now Draghi strongly suggests that governments begin to invest in infrastructure.

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    Spain has pulled ahead. Fundamental analysis for 29.09.2014

    The week began for the Eurodollar on an extremely positive surface. Despite the fact that the Spanish inflation still remains in the negative range, the statistics considerably softened - instead of last month’s -0.5% we saw only 0.2%. Moreover, in Madrid they began to revise forecasts for economic growth - this year's positive trend in GDP is expected to reach 1.3%, and the next 2%.

    Also the creation of 350k new jobs in 2015 is planned, which should help combat the record unemployment. However it is unlikely that in the next few years, the unemployment rate will fall below 20%. Moreover, plans to reduce the deficit completely fell apart - by the year-end figure is likely to stabilize at 5.5%, and only in the next year it is expected to decline to the level of 4.2%.

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    A five-year low of the European inflation. Fundamental analysis for 30.09.2014

    The Eurodollar continues to decline, drawing strength from the latest statistics. Despite the revision of inflation in the last month from 0.3% to 0.4%, in September the figure again came in at 0.3%. Moreover, core inflation slipped to last month’s 0.9% to 0.7% (a measure that does not consider the dynamics of prices for food and energy, as well as a number of other headings, subject to market fluctuations).

    As inflation continues to remain at a five-year low, it provides even greater pressure on the ECB. During this week the regulator should determine the parameters for future asset purchases, but if an agreement for the provision of guarantees for securitized bonds with the major European capitals will not be met, the program will get only the most reliable ones, which will adversely affect its efficiency.

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    The Eurodollar is waiting for American statistics

    On Friday morning the main currency pair is trading on the downside, having failed to keep positivity after the ECB meeting.

    The EUR/USD this morning and is inactive and under a small amount of sales.

    Yesterday was a regular meeting of the European Central Bank, during which the interest rate has remained at 0.05% per annum, as expected. The mechanism of low rates alone is not working properly, so the ECB still came to the redemption of assets and, as a consequence, stimulation.

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    An unprofitable place. Fundamental analysis for 10.11.2014

    Last Friday started off with strong enough statistics on the US labour market, which actually confirmed the correctness of actions of the Federal Reserve, which bowed out at the last QE3 meeting. According to published data, in October, 214k jobs were created, which is certainly less than the forecast, but it was still enough for the further recovery of the labour market. Moreover, last month’s increase was revised from 248k to 256k.

    Unemployment also continued to decline, falling to the level of 5.8%, and this is below the forecast of the Fed at the end of this year. If not for the virtual absence (if you take into account inflation) income growth, it would be safe to expect a rate hike in the spring of 2015. The situation was used by the Republicans in the last election to "recapture" the majority in the Senate from the Democrats, skilfully playing on the public’s discontent.

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    The pound got crushed by inflation

    The GBP/USD pair is trading down today after the publication of statistical data on the UK consumer price index.

    In the past few days, the pound was honestly trying to hold in a range of stabilizing after falling in early January. But the statistics are a cruel thing: the market chooses to respond to the data, or leave it unattended. Today in the GBP/USD pair the market chose to react.

    Inflation in the UK in December was very weak, to be exact - zero m/m. In annual terms, the CPI is 0.5% against the previous value of 0.7%.

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    The yen slightly strengthened

    The USD/JPY pair is trading upward on Tuesday afternoon - the market has very few drivers for movement, and the investors are bored.

    The Japanese Yen is rising in price on Tuesday in tandem with the US dollar. The current quote in USD/JPY is 122.61.

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    The Australian dollar is looking up

    The AUD/USD pair is trading on the upside the second consecutive day, despite cautious comments RBA.

    On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar is rising against its US counterpart. Currently the AUD/USD pair is trading around the 0.7276 mark.

    No important news from the Australian economy has been reported over the past day. However, the night before the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Mr. Stevens, commenting on general issues, said that the movement of inflation is not any serious obstacle to lowering the interest rate, if the circumstances so require.

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    The euro continues to moderately strengthen

    On Wednesday afternoon, the main currency pair is trading on the upside due to a neutral external background and the lack of significant news.

    Mid week is fairly quiet for the currency market. The current quote in the euro/dollar is 1.0935. The main currency pair is moderately rising for the second day in a row, taking a quiet external background for the main driver.

    Today, Germany has presented statistics on the country's trade balance for October. The index was 22.5 billion euro against the September value of 22.8 billion euro. Exports for the period decreased by 1.2% m/m, and imports dipped by 3.4%. The decline in export is largely due to reduced demand in China and Russia. At the same time, Europe was still not able to maintain a stable domestic demand to stabilize the situation.

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    The yen is trading ambiguously

    At the beginning of the final week of the year, the USD / JPY pair is moving with a constant change of direction in response to the morning Statistics.

    On Monday, the Japanese yen is constantly changing direction. In the first half of the day, the yen grew and in the second half, it is losing weight. The current quote in the USD/JPY pair is 120.43.

    Morning statistics showed that November retail sales in Japan sank noticeably. The index fell by 1.0% y/y. Industrial production in Japan in the past month fell by 1.0% m/m (+ 1.6% y/y).

    The components of the report on retail sales indicate that m/m the indicator fell by just 2.5%. Consumer spending is still not increasing - the population clearly believes that the economy has not overcome the difficulties and remains in a troubled state.

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    The euro is barely moving

    In anticipation of the New Year, the main currency pair, it seems, has moved into a phase of consolidation within a narrow range.

    The euro/dollar is barely moving on Tuesday afternoon. The current quotation of the main currency pair is 1.0972, and is slightly higher than yesterday. There is almost no activity in the instrument, as there is no significant news. Tonight a report on US consumer confidence index in December will be published, but it is unlikely that the market reaction to this release will be pronounced.

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