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  1. #1
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    How to create Limit Levels.

    Limit Level, hereinafter abbreviated as LL are not mentioned anywhere in the classical description of trading strategies. There are levels of support and resistance, they can also be in the form of zones, can be built on the extremes of shadows, closures, etc. The main feature of LL is their accuracy.
    construction, with little or no subjectivity.
    For example, if you ask several traders to do level markup of support and resistance, then most likely they will all be different, and if done with LL - the result will most likely be the opposite, the levels will be the same, maybe their number can differ, but the osculation will be the same.

    Also, LL is quite simple to understand from the point of view of "market mechanics" (more on this later), and accordingly, trade is conducted not according to a pattern made up from history, but from real actions of market players at a specific time, giving the opportunity to readjust to the market with the convenient risk and trade options for themselves. Also, one of the benefits is accuracy, and it’s not
    just because of the selection of ideal entry points. The fact is that in most systems built on graphical analysis and price movement the closing price is very important, if it is above or below the level. And how then to determine where it is, if in one and the same area a few points in the level difference play a key role let's say the direction of the trade generally depends on it. I think many have come across this problem. But LL can only be drawn there - where he can
    be, and not elsewhere
    , i.e. you can not get confused. Yes, you can miss it (you will understand later why), but if it is already determined, it will be accurate.
    Similarly, one of the LL trade options - through false breakdown - false breakdown is either there or not, and will not be confusing. But this is not
    the only option, LL are traded on both breakdown and reversal, as with a false breakdown, and without it
    . Each of these options has its own nuances, which will be described in this topic.
    And the most important thing is that this approach works on both history and in real time, while in the future, is unlikely to change too. The reason for this is the "nature" of the LL, without which virtually no market can exist today nor in the near future. Accordingly, the range of instruments in the markets is not limited, if only there was liquidity and volatility in the instrument.
    This may be a currency pair, cryptocurrency, oil, corn, equity, other indices, etc ...
    Again, Limit Levels are the basis of a trading system, its "spine", but there are several trade options.

    Strategy Description:
    • System - breakdown and reversal (trend is a relative concept, the same rollback after a breakdown, can be seen as a reversal, both at the beginning and at the end)
    • Difficulty - medium (IMHO)
    • The main timeframe is 1D | 1W | 1MN (daily is optimal, but no way under)
    • Additional timeframe (optional) - 1Н | 15М
    • Markets - any tools
    • Features - the system involves strictly trade with a stop loss order at in this respect, they are minimal relative to the working timeframe. The main focus is on money management mathematics due to high risk ratios to profit (PL).

    In more detail, in detail, all the moments about LL, their construction methods, their variants, understanding in terms of market processes - will be further in topic because one post is not enough.
    For general clarity, an example from the LL markup, and an example of one of the options LL trading, through his false breakdown.



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  2. #11
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    "Mechanics" of a false LL breakdown.

    To further understand the essence of false breakdowns and complex false LL breakdowns I will explain how it happens from the mechanical side.

    When a false breakdown occurs, LL is nothing more than gain of positions due to market orders (these are the stop losses and entries breakdown the stop orders, remember
    post # 2) of those market participants who put them immediately after the level because it is a textbook.
    With a complex false breakdown, it is even more interesting, besides those participants with a simple false breakdown, another group has been added – the ones that considered it a true breakdown after the closing of the first bar of a complex false breakdown after level because there was a closure on the other side. Of course they will enter in at the market price and at the first pullback to the level (it will also become mirrored), and of course not in the direction of the one who provokes a false breakdown (and meanwhile the position rises, because otherwise it does not work to speed up this process).

    Then, when a complex false breakdown is formed, all the “victims”, if not knocked out by the stop loss, "pray" that the price would return to the level again, to break even (remember yourself in such situations, you know - you are not alone). And in most cases (not always) they are given the permission to do it, to get a boost at their expense.

    Naturally, after all this, when everyone will turn around together (but someone to break even and not earn) - the momentum will be with a lot of "victims", and a small number of those who earned. Pareto rule fulfils fully. That is why a complex false breakdown is the strongest setup to trade LL (and not only them).

    By the way, if someone thinks about the expression "puppeteer" and alike - understand, this is not the case. No one is "hunting for exactly yours or someone's stop-loss" on purpose. You put it yourself there, like the majority, and a big player will have to pick it up in their own interests. This is a natural process, without which it is simply not possible for a short period of time to gain a large position, and if you gain it for a long time, this will become noticeable and other "catch up". So it comes in this way around.

    Time passes, everything changes, but these moments hardly ever change, after all, it is not possible in another way; any market is arranged so.

    Imagine you need to buy 1000 kg of tomatoes from one food market for a good price. Your actions? If you scream about it, what happens to the price? Right, all sellers will react instantly, and raise the price, which means we will buy in little amounts, not noticeable, quietly. On the graph, it will look like a range, trade negotiation.

    Then, to speed up the process, from your already purchased tomatoes from others, we put a price on them a little below the market and show it to everyone. What happens to the price of most of the market? Also correct, most will start abruptly
    drop the price, and only a few will get it and go home.

    And now, when the price has fallen below the original, and even everyone is in a hurry to sell for anything, it remains just to stock up completely at low prices, while others do not understand what is happening, and when they will it will be too late.

    Now we will start to do everything over, just the other way around - sell them and the new "customers" all the same tomatoes, but now at an inflated price (we have the goods (take profit)), at the same time as tricky as before, just a little at a time, quietly and so forth.

    And initially, for all this movement, we need only three things: large capital, brains and actions. But there will be those who are more attentive, more reserved, that will understand these manoeuvres. They are always fewer than the crowd because the market consists of emotions, herd instinct, haste, sense of loss, greed, so the whole bunch of hidden reserves of a person. And this someone, instead of telling everyone, will take better advantage of the situation, and imperceptibly (considering the smaller capital) will join. There is nothing to be ashamed of, it is market economy, the truth is hard. Improvise.

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  3. #12
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    Which option of the setup to choose?

    I will answer specifically (unlike many) - first work out one, the most understandable to you. And practice it, "beat at one point", till it will be done by you automatically. Then do the same with the others and in the end everything will become comfortable.
    The same goes for building Limit Levels, before trading them, at first I did and continue to do (I also strongly recommend to you) thousands of markups, on different tools, looked at the interaction of prices with them, and
    now, as a result, I notice the LL I need not with the "armed eye", and know the preferred option how to trade.

    Let me remind you - trading is the hardest way to easy money.

    I use all the setups described here, depending on the situation (including work with an additional smaller timeframe), especially since trade is conducted on
    several accounts, on each of which different options are traded, according to different instruments (diversification). But remember, I have some experience in this field, yet I am the author of this particular method (of course the base was common), and it was created not a day, not a month, or even a year, but more, by trial and error, unfortunately (maybe fortunately) I invested a lot of money in it. And I am still working on improving the method.
    Although the most "favourite" in my opinion and effective setup is the complex false breakdown of LL, which is not surprising, given the process of its formation and results of testing.

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  4. #13
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    Estimated Stop Loss

    With the technical stop loss everything is extremely simple, put it beyond the extremum of the false breakdown and that is it. But what about trading the rebounds from LL? There is no such possibility. Or when the false breakdown in depth is not small, and the possibility of a good PL ratio is lost , it is not a reason to skip the setup. The expression “big stop loss” is relative, what should one rely on with such judgment?

    This is where the calculated stop loss comes to help, which depends only on the limit level price. To understand the direct dependence on the price level, re-read post # 6, about backlash. It describes in detail why you need a percentage change and a complete analogy for calculated stop loss.

    Now about the most important thing - the size in% of the calculated stop loss when trading LL for most markets and instruments (forex including)
    is 0.20% - 0.25% of the value of the LL itself.

    For example, the price of EURUSD is 1.1400. Then multiplying the price by our percentage we get the current stop of 23 - 29 points. The same is true for the concept
    "allowable size of stop loss" when dealing with technical stop loss.

    Why so much and most markets are not all, i.e. how to be with the others?

    Everything is connected to the average daily price movement, the ATR. Suppose if EURUSD is off today (with time the price will change, accordingly the volatility, the average ATR will change also, and as a result, the stop loss will change in points, but as a percentage it will remain the same 0.2-0.25%) in the average is 100 points, then with the right entry point in the right direction,
    the probability of the opposite movement being more than 1/4 (25%) of the daily movement is very unlikely. It is caused by the money that trades in the day because it is not difficult to calculate that otherwise, it will simply not work to earn money for one trading day or trading session and that the price is simply not allowed to go further.

    As a result, we get - for absolutely all instruments and markets where 0.2% -0.25% is not quite right you need to take the average daily range and
    calculate its fourth portion. This will be our calculated stop loss.

    More about the average ATR and how I calculate it will be a description separately, but I take it not on indicators, but "by hand" and for good reason. To begin with, an indicator is enough.

    Another explanation of why these figures are so on the example for the forex market. Here is a table of average price change per day (volatility) as a percentage. As we see, there are very few who pass at least 1% of their price per day, so a stop loss of 0.2% -0.25% (1/4 of volatility) will be adequate, while provided a normal entry point. After all, even statistically the chances of being knocked out are low.



    By the way, considering all these factors, you begin to understand one important thing: you can boldly trade the "clumsy" NZDCHF with a calculated stop loss with a result of the order of 15 points, is not worse (even better) than the same "high-spirited" GBPUSD with a calculated stop loss of about 30 points. In summary, given the average daily volatility (and I remind you that it is approximately equal for the majority) with an equal percentage
    at each position, the potential profitability will be similar. But NZDCHF in comparison is predicted easier (by my opinion).
    Math - an exact science and a must in trading.

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  5. #14
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    Do I need to take the news into account?

    NO. I am of the opinion - the price takes everything into account.

    It is precisely due to the release of news that false breakouts of LL often appear. But even more frequent occurrence - when the price without kickbacks has gone far from the planned entry points, and when the news comes out (both planned and spontaneous) our order is activated, while in good momentum. And if you pay attention to the news and do not trade, then we will be out of the market. As for me, a couple of small news stops and one decent news take, especially
    it is often quick in such cases.

    By no means I call for trading on the news, I'm talking about that there is no need to attach importance to them, when trading according to this method. This does not apply for the rest of the systems, especially the fundamental ones.
    I use the calendar only when it I am already in good profit, to partially secure it, pulling up the stop, if I do not forget (to be fair). Yes, there are stop losses, they happen even without news - in trading it is normal.

    Not that long ago, regarding the interaction of a strong limit level and sudden news (there was something with Brexit, honestly - without a clue what it was about ...), there was a situation on the GBPUSD pair, and it could be successfully traded using the LL system. This example is taken from my own analytics, in the process of communicating with a colleague (I repeat, I do not always post "beautiful" examples, but I take the first suitable to the topic)

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  6. #15
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    Goals and support of transactions.

    The eternal question, to which practically no one gives a clear answer, clear specific actions are just skipped by default. I will try to do this, at least so that there is a specifics to the implementation. After all in fact, this is one of the most difficult issues of any trading system, and this one is no exception. I will rely on my personal statistics, which was carried out (and now held) for more than a year. Of course, this is for trading on the LL system, described in this topic.

    First of all I want to note that when reaching the ratio of PL more than 1: 2, preferably transfer the transactions to breakeven. This is especially true for those who are just starting to trade this approach.

    Although, regarding me personally, I have been doing this much less often lately, but I select LL for personal trading "top of the top", since of my not a small experience, sorry for modesty.
    Now about the goals. As I just did not "maneuver", but in the end I got the following conclusions and figures.

    Always, during the placement of an order for the transaction, beside the stop loss it is necessarily to put a fixed take-profit and only two options - minimum equal to 1: 5, 1:10 maximum . Previously, at a minimum was taken 1: 3, but with the improvement of algorithms, this is no longer necessary, although for beginners trading on LL I think we should start with this ratio, but not less. You can take more, and much more, the system allows it, but I stick to math and statistics.

    Of these two options, the most frequent is the first, i.e. 1: 5.
    The second - 1:10, you need to "take" only 1-2 times in 1-2 weeks.


    Why so, I will not describe in detail, because it's for a long time and on the forum somewhere I already wrote all the details and it can be found. I will say it in one sentence: psychology + math + statistics + specifics + simplicity.
    As a result, we get the principle - set and forget. I tried and traided on a variety of methods, and split the transaction into parts, safes and etc. - it did not get better, but vice versa (it concerns the final account balance).
    The only thing we pay attention to when choosing one of these two options - for the presence of counter LL, and if any ratios 1: 5 - this setup is generally not desirable to trade. Now I think the reasons for the importance of the term "valid stop loss size which is approximately equal to the calculated " are even more clear, described earlier.

    Equally important, the transaction (entry, limit losses, output) is always planned before its discovery, and not in the process . According to this, if planned - it is necessary to act until the end, and "do not fuss" by shifting the stops and takes. Then we begin to regret, like "why did I go there, why did I quit too early". Anyway, more than one little stop, will not affect the loss. And already with experience, then there may be, sometimes (rarely) changes, for example from 1: 5 to 1:10 or 1:20, or when the price cannot get to a profit in a bit - manual exit.

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    Last edited by Gulfstream; 05-14-2019 at 09:32 AM.

  7. #16
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    Money Management when trading Limit Levels

    Despite the fact that this is a difficult question, everything is very simple.

    1. I hold a fixed risk per trade of 1% or 2% of deposit.
    I use 2% with the most pronounced setups, from the strongest LL, in conjunction with a complex false breakdown, or several false breakdowns in a row. 1% in those setups that look less interesting and understandable, as well as in those where "super small" stop loss and the probability of a successful approach is not high from the first time, for example when working with lower timeframes, or from local LL, which are relatively weak.

    IMPORTANT. With a large number of simultaneous trading opportunities (from 5 and more) a risk of 1% is applied, so that there would be a free margin and a lower load on deposit. This does not include already opened positions with a positive outcome, it is desirable to transfer them to breakeven if PL for them is more than 1: 2.
    Either we select the best of them and trade at 2%, or we trade everything, but at 1% risk from deposit
    2. Recalculation of the remainder of the deposit is carried out on the basis of a deposit of one specific account, every week on the weekend. That means, that within a week the last balance from the past week is used, and for different accounts separately.
    3. Trading is divided into several trading accounts. Grouping mainly by markets, let's say: forex, stock and commodity; or forex majors, forex cross rates, forex CFD (these are examples). Thus, diversification is still being carried out, since to calculate the risk is taken a specific account, not their total balance.
    In addition, the efficiency of trading LL on various markets and assets, which in itself is an interesting occupation. It is also important, with this approach - the influence of the concept is minimized. correlation, on the overall balance.

    Lastly, when there are several accounts it is more convenient to plan the distribution profits, for example, from one "we eat", from the second we save for development (thereby we steadily increase the overall balance), and the third is for a “rainy day”, because this is market...

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    Last edited by Gulfstream; 05-14-2019 at 09:32 AM.

  8. #17
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    Work with additional smaller timeframes

    To begin with, recall that the main working timeframe when trading Limit Levels will always be 1D and older. It always determines LL and direction of the transaction as previously described. Lower timeframes are only additional for more delicate entry point, or rather not its place (the entry point will always be LL itself), but time opening a deal, and a place to place a stop loss. And in no way on them we are looking for LL, and we are not engaged in “fitting” the existing ones - the level should be there, where it should be.
    Without additional timeframes, you can safely trade, especially those who
    just starting to work on this system. Especially since the younger ones will have to devote significantly more time to the trading process itself.

    But there are a few advantages of trading with an additional smaller timeframe:
    1. The ability to avoid too early entry.
    2. To reduce the size of the technical stop loss, and accordingly also to diminish not a small, risk to reward ratio.
    3. Trade the level before the first false breakdown on the working level timeframe.
    4. The opportunity not to enter the deal at all, which, following the results of work with the main timeframe will obviously be unprofitable, i.e. use as additional filter.
    5. In some cases, smaller timeframes provide an opportunity to go into that
    the moment when the working price does not reach the entry point a little, thereby not miss a deal.
    6. Additional opportunity to trade LL in narrow ranges, between their borders, which is very difficult to do on a working timeframe.

    But, there are drawbacks:
    1. It takes a lot of time. Requires to constantly be near the terminal.
    2. Because of it, there is a high probability of getting into the "tilt" state.
    3. More likely to become entangled in own conclusions, because you have to control not only a bunch of tools, but also several timeframes. It’s simply "exhausting".
    4. Sometimes, waiting for a full-fledged setup on a saller timeframe, simply
    the input is skipped, which would have already been performed while working only with the main one. Especially when we sleep, and healthy sleep for a trader (and not only) is just necessary.
    5. Not always a shorter technical stop loss from a lower timeframe will be the best decision compared to what is in the workplace, and will have to do
    rerun in position. Yet, according to statistics, competent work with an additional timeframe is very highly profitable if time and emotional resilience allows to. For my trading, I use two lower timeframes, namely 15M and 1H
    (can be replaced by 5M and 30M, respectively). It is important to use only one of the connections with the worker is either 1D + 15M or 1D + 1H, each of which we will analyze separately, because there are differences between them
    In these bundles only false and complex false breakout LL will be setups only already on the most additional timeframe. Simple hookups are completely excluded.

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  9. #18
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    Need to think with your brain

    Before continuing the tech part of the topic, I will again emphasize on what most ignore. It is simply necessary to understand my view of the market more, and accordingly, trading methods and this TS. And so, the theme is what interests me from the price movement, and what I absolutely ignore. For example, a situation of price movement from the bottom up.

    I am a speculator trader, and I am primarily interested in moments:
    1. Prices are moving up because everyone below is pressing the Buy button more than those who do the opposite
    2. The price can stop only in three cases:
    a) the first stop clicking the Buy button;
    b) those who press the Sell button will become more;
    c) on the way, any type of limit order will appear with an absolutely large volume, than the first and second groups combined
    3. Why, because of what, because of what news, or other reasons like "fingers
    tired, "it happened - I, as a speculator, care the least. Let the thinking to investors, politicians, analysts, owners of large companies, etc.,
    4. Which of these points is really something to notice on the chart, what else would.
    there was an opportunity to seize the moment - only c)
    5. How to do it - look in history
    6. Why in the history - because it can be at least somehow possible to determine what is cheap and what is expensive
    7. Is it possible to make a decision on the based only on the history - no, because it’s not a fact that today what was considered cheap yesterday, remains the same
    8. How to be sure then - the limit level, if today the price has stopped at
    the place where it used to be considered expensive - this is at least something
    9. How to play it safe, that this is not a pause of the buttonpressers - a false breakdown to help, this is a confirmation that I am not the only who thinks that it has become expensive.
    10. Why false breakdown - look at the post # 13 about the mechanics of false breakdown.
    11. Where to enter - where the one who stopped the price has already started to enter or has already entered, i.e. at the place where he, according to my observations, put his limit order, on LL
    12. Why LL did not appear immediately, but after the stud - because "the engine accelerated and there is inertia" ;because not all buttonpressers work without Stop Loss, and they worked before the stop of the "engine"; because "our limitplayer" so specially maneuvered that would be quickly and quietly “shopped”
    13. Where to put a stop loss - where the one of the 11th paragraph put it.
    14. And where he set - only he knows for sure, but most likely behind a false breakdown
    15. And why behind the false breakdown - because he also has a “pain limit”, and when he "drew" a false breakdown, at the top point he for some reason has stopped. Further, it is highly likely to assume that this was pain limit, but that's not certain
    16. Why in the end everything, stopped – because the buttonsmashers have found the strength and the means to push the engine to the pain limit, where as a result, our limit seller joined them in the ranks by his Stop Loss market order, although it is clear that he is not happy about this, as am I.
    17. Is it possible without a false breakdown - yes, but then it will be necessary to calculate that since time history has not changed the concept of cheap / expensive relative to tradable asset
    18. And how to check it - only through a deal, or, alternatively, go to fortune teller, astrologer, ask your neighbors
    19. Who is he from the 11th item - if economically speaking - a market maker, and more correctly not him, but they. I don’t need to know who he is. the main thing that there are market makers, because without them all this (starting with the first question) would be not possible.

    Now I think is enough, and I hope it is clear, especially the fact that: trade should not begin with pictures, but from the reasons where these pictures come from, then turn on your brain, and only then look at the pictures and press the buttons in the terminal.
    If someone had told me earlier (long ago) how many nerves and money survived, even without Limit Levels.

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  10. #19
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    A bunch of timeframes 1D + 15M

    1. In order to trade with an additional timeframe there is no need to wait for a false breakdown on the working timeframe, it is enough to determine the LL. But it is very desirable that the LL was not only in history, but with a local confirmation, again on the working timeframe.
    2. Inputs will be only through a false or a complex false breakdown of LL. The level on the working timeframe is 1D of course. The direction of the trade is also looked up at the working timeframe, regardless of what we see on the additional one.
    At the same time, only complicated false breakdown is preferable at 15M. If simple false break - it is desirable that he be at least several times, and then, enter if there is a very small technical stop loss, in the region of up to 0.1% of the price of LL. As a standard, the size of the technical stop loss should be no more than permissible, i.e. calculated at 0.2-0.25% of the price level.
    3. When working with add. timeframes always use technical stop loss, because in most cases it will be less than calculated. If not, then do not trade the setup, this is a filter.
    4. On smaller timeframes, especially on 15M, complex false breakodown can consist of a large number of bars, for example, 20-30. Our criterion is still will not be tied to their number, but to the permissible size of the stop loss.
    5. At 15M, the input is not necessarily from LL, but rather at the closing of the first bar, that completed the formation of a complex false breakdown. Often this difference is not essential, but we thus exclude the probability of a missed entry.
    In order not to guess "there is a closing not far from the level" - we look, that the difference from the entry point to the border of false breakdown, matched the size of permissible stop loss.
    6. At 15M, a successful entry may not be on the first try, but it is better not to “get carried away”


    Examples for the 15M timeframe



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  11. #20
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    A bunch of timeframes 1D + 1H

    All that has been described for working with an additional timeframe of 15M (previous post) is taken into account in this case, when working with add. timeframe 1H.
    The exception is the entrance at the closing of the bar that completed the formation of a false breakdown. Here we enter only during the rollback to LL, as well as during standard trading from the working timeframe. Entry at closing is acceptable only if it is very close to LL.
    Also, regarding simple false breakdowns, the criteria are not so tough, i.e.
    can be viewed in the same way as in the standard mode on the working timeframe.
    The main point when using 1H is the requirement to wait at this timeframe for at least one (preferably two) LL confirmations point to point, it is absolutely indifferent from which side. Direction of the transaction remains from the working timeframe.
    Only after that you can look for the opportunity to enter. The same breakdown 1H may be both before these confirmations and after, it does not matter, it has to be locally.
    This method is more accurate than working with 15M, but the setups themselves will be less.


    Examples




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