TS "Breakout"
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Thread: TS "Breakout"

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    TS "Breakout"

    The logic of TS "Breakout"

    unequivocally, everybody comes to the market with a goal to earn money. That means, there could be hardly be found at least one person who consciously opens deals to lose money. Precisely, despite our desires, it can be very difficult to earn money.

    Our main goal:

    1. to earn
    2. to minimize losses and to earn.

    What does that require?
    1. We should have a working trading system with a clear set of rules.
    2. We have to understand what is happening on the market at the moment.
    3. We should work by our own algorithm.

    What is FX market? Everyone knows about the trend, correction and flat. In any market situation we can earn, but for this, you need to realize the real market situation.
    Some traders use the simple TA and the "Breakout" TS.
    Each of you knows that 90% of the time the market is in a flat and only 10% is moving (trend).
    What is a flat? In the flat, the price is tightly clamped within the channels borders. It is simple
    enoughtp define it - the classical construction goes on 4 points (I take two ... a little ahead of events). The flat can be on any time frame - from m1 to MN1. The older time frames are, the larger and more extensive channels it has, and the price can be here for a longer time.
    What is interesting for us?

    Firstly, it can work perfectly inside of the time frame H4 (buy/sell from the borders).
    Secondly, it forms the figures, which I use in TS "Breakout", with the further definition of the exit direction from the flat, i.e. the trend's beginning.
    I use only triangles and flags in my analysis.

    3 types of triangles:

    1. Symmetric;
    2. Ascending;
    3. Descending.

    Flags:
    1. reversal;
    2. continuation of the movement.

    The figures work on all time frames, the medium-long-term movement can be determined by a complex analysis on all time frames, taking into account the general movement and possible corrections. By the way, I advise everyone to use stop loss and observe money management in order to avoid unpleasant moments.
    Next, we will take a closer look at the rules for building triangles and flags, determining the direction and objectives, and minimizing losses.
    The basis of TS "Breakout" includes figures - triangles and flags.

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  2. #2
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    TS "Breakout". Triangles

    Today we will consider triangles: the principle of construction and types.

    The triangle is based on four points (they are conditionally marked as 1; 2; 3; 4).
    In addition to "drawing" a triangle, the main thing is to determine correctly the points and to draw it. It looks very simply by the first view, but there may be certain difficulties.

    The 1st point is at the minimum or maximum of the chart. It cannot be lower / higher than point 3.
    Correspondingly, P.3 and P.4 are below P-1 and 2. (ALWAYS!)
    A triangle is considered a figure of uncertainty when the market begins to spin, and the output to either side is estimated at 50/50. And this is so in reality. But using certain skills, methods of constructing and classifying triangles, you can more likely determine the price direction of exit from the triangle!
    This is exactly what we need. Well, we are not happy with the probability of 50/50. So you can throw a coin or guess cards ...

    Triangle types:

    • turn of movement
    • continuation of movement
    • the last ejection (turn of the traffic)

    Here we consider only the classical construction and operation of triangles. There are circa 30-50 subspecies of the configurations with a different formation and development. But they will be considered as the discussion runs.

    1. The triangle of the turn of the movement.
      It is formed on high /low, indicates a change of trend (in large time frames) or correction (for small time frames).
    2. The triangle of continuation of movement.
      is formed in the course of the trend movement and confirms the continuation of the movement. Most often it is "drawn" on the levels (TP from the main movement).
    3. Triangle of MF (last ejection).
      is formed on high /low, indicates a change of trend, but before the start of the reversal movement, it gives an ejection in the direction of the previous movement, with a return to the triangle and with the exit in the opposite direction.
      Often it is taken as a continuation triangle. Very dangerous at work!





    The rules of work: the triangle is considered as working after the breakdown of the level in the P.1, the stop is set for the level of P. 2.

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  3. #3
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    TS "Breakout". Flag, triangle-flag.

    The flag is one of the main and most working figures in my TS "Breakout".
    What are the advantages? The main thing is that it shows a 100% turn when forming on high /low, it is clearly set SL, it works according to clear rules.

    The flags are:

    1. flag - turn figure
    2. the flag is a figure of continuation.

    The figure is drawn at 5 points. In order to determine the flag, we should have a pivot and a cloth.
    Point 1 - high or low on the chart and the first point of the pivot, p. 2 - the second point of the pivot and the first point of the cloth. The panel is drawn along four points (2; 3; 4; 5) and the lines should be conditionally parallel. The required condition is P.5 must be above point 3.
    The flag is considered as working in case of breakdown of the level on P. 2. Stop loss is set for P.5.
    This is an example of a classic flag - reversal figures.

    The triangle - flag.
    The principle of work and construction is similar, but instead of a cloth, a triangle is drawn. In this case, the stop loss is set for P. 1.
    It is considered as formed and working as well in case of breakdown of the level m. 2.



    The flag (zigzag) is a continuation of the movement.
    This type of flag is formed in the course of movement in flat. Often It happens without pivots (only a cloth), it is the reason to call it a zigzag.
    An example of the work of the figures: the triangle of the turn + the continuation flag + the continuation triangle.



    Stop loss on this figure means the abolition of the original plan. It is possible to redraw or completely cancel the signal.

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    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    TS "Breakout".How to determinate the goals?

    In continue we will discuss how to define goals and set “take profit”.
    In my opinion, the most important thing in trading it is to get the maximum profit with minimal losses. In percentage terms, of course, regarding the deposit and the permissible risks and observance of the elementary rules of money and risk management.

    I have already described the rules
    ofstop loss placing on the figures, they are exhibited necessarily! This will at least save your deposit from large losses in the event of an error in determining the direction of price exit from the range (figure).

    We are already interested in knowing "
    doku" we will trade.
    For this, we have two levels of the figure - point 1 and point 2. At point 1 we set the Fibonacci level with the value of 100.0% and it remains unchanged. At point 2, we pull the Fibonacci by the levels 23.6 / 38.2 / 50.0 / 61.8. Accordingly, the level of 0.0% denotes our estimated target for taking profit.

    The objectives are designated as follows:
    tp min - 23.6 (p. 2)
    tp 1 - 38.2 (p. 2)
    tp 2 - 50.0 (p. 2)
    tp 3 - 61.8 (p.2)






    Does it work 100%? I do not want to reassure anyone, but I will say NO.
    But some statistics still exists, and a high share of the likelihood that at the moment it is this pattern that we will collect all 3 TP.

    1. the best way for it, when the goals are worked out on the reversal of the trend (the trend changing)
    2. on the corrections on small timeframes.
      For example, the trend is on H4 - correction is on the M30-M5.
      a trend on D1 - correction to H4-H1.
      but in the corrections is completing only tp min / tp 1 maximally.
    3. approximate statistics of the fulfilment of goals:
      the minimum is 95-90%
      1 goal - 80-70%
      2 and 3 the goal for luck is 50%.

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  5. #5
    Super Moderator Gulfstream's Avatar
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    TS "Breakout". Conclusion.

    We came to a logical conclusion about the TS "Breakout".
    Rather, not that everything is complete, but in the previous topics I described in detail the principles of defining and working on figures - triangles and flags, so to speak, the technical part.
    It remains lyrical one...
    Everyone understands, that "drawing" dashes it is not a 100% guarantee of earnings and that this pattern will work.
    As in any TS, there are certain subtleties of small secrets.

    Let's sum up a little.

    What is included in the TS "Breakout":

    1. figures - triangles, flags, zigzags.
    2. levels of support and resistance
    3. corridors
    4. channels

    It is also used as additional signals:

    1. Candlestick analysis (CA)
    2. "tortoiseshell soup" (L. Raschke)

    The TC "Breakout" goal is to determine the maximum range and to work out it by taking the movement away.

    How to work properly on the TS? We need to understand the general situation on the market, in order to have an idea of what we should do now. The analysis is carried out from the largest time frames (MN / W) gradually descending to m5: D1 / H4 / H1 .....
    When we see a general picture of D1, combined with the month and weeks, we already determine "what to expect" and at what phase the market is located:

    • trend
    • range
    • correction.

    Everything is simple in the trend- we work on the trend, taking away the TP by purpose (by Fibo), waiting for confirmation figures (flats) with a further continuation of the movement.
    In the range, we work inside it, on
    largetph. If you look at the chart, you can see that the triangles and flags from D1 and higher can be formed up to 6 months, i.e. the price is inside it.
    examples in pictures:

    The
    eur/usd triangle was formed 3 months on D1.



    eur/gbp W1.



    We define the boundaries, and from them, ideally with a confirmation of the signal for small tp, we wait for the moment of breakdown.
    In most cases, 80% of the large figures always have confirmation signals on m5-m30.
    Similarly, the exit from the range is accompanied by the formation of a figure confirming the direction.
    Correction. This is the most painful moment for all traders. And for those who are just overclocked by the movement, and those who like to "buy the bottom" or "sell from the hays." Correction in most cases occurs when the price reaches certain levels, as a rule, this is the goal for Fibo (TP), or support/resistance levels.
    But in most cases, at these levels, figures on small timeframes are forming, which help to determine the forthcoming direction and the expected size of the correctional movement. That means - a sharp correction from the level in the trend movement means that at the moment the market will stop in the near-term range (at least 2 points !!!), from which the further direction with the formation of the pattern (continuation or reversal) will be determined.

    Conclusion:

    1. The TS allows us to minimize losses - a clear definition of stop-loss
    2. determine the state and direction of the market.
    3. earn on any timeframe - from scalping to long-term trading.
    4. just earn!

    Good luck and profits to everybody!
    Any questions and discussions are welcome!

    p.s. The TC "Breakout" does not use indicators! FA serves as an additional filter for entering the transaction!
    The TC uses methods of constructing figures by J. Murphy "Technical Analysis of Financial Markets" with minor changes.

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  6. #6
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    The essence of trading the forex market like you have rightly pointed out is to minimize losses and make profits. The forex market is a business place and every trader will like to reduce loss and make as much profits as possible. The TS breakout trading system is a great one because it deals with methods that can be used to reduce our loss and increase our profits.Trading a breakout is one of the best way to make huge money from the market and if we can protect our capital, then making profits may not be too difficult.

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  7. #7
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    glory3, yes everyone want to reduce loss and want to earn more and more money but the real question is how? our confirm orders can save us just sometime breakout can be a good for placing order but still sometime our analysis can wrong so for understanding support and resistant and breakout we should understand how these works

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  8. #8
    Trader Senorita's Avatar
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    A nice trading article that needs good time to digest properly. When we talk about triangles we can call the symmetiric, ascending, and the decending triangle. These triangles can really give good signal once a breakout occurs and following them could mean a high chance of profits. For ascending triangle it's good to note that it will work better in a bullish trend while descending angle are for the bearish trend. However symmetric clocks between and any breakout above would be bullish while breakouts below calls for bearish trade.

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  9. #9
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    the trading system of a clear set of rules will help the trader to know when to enter the market and when to exit and so he will decrease the risk and will be able to increase the profits always and so he will be able to make consistent profits from the market, the good trading system will make a difference for the trader because he will make trading more simple.

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  10. #10
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    A breakout is a price movement of a security through an identified level of resistance, which is usually followed by heavy volume and an increased amount of volatility. Traders buy the underlying pair when the price breaks above a level of resistance or when it breaks below a level of support.We must be very careful in trading breakout because if it is not well managed, this is where traders are always losing money because they do not know how to guide their trading account when a breakout occur.

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