Probability in FOREX marke ....use it for you're ADVANTAGE !!

# Thread: Probability in FOREX marke ....use it for you're ADVANTAGE !!

1. ## Probability in FOREX market ....use it for you're ADVANTAGE !!

Hello

i would like to welcome you in my topic
as i was replying in one of my threads to a friend he said and i quote ''....... the forex market is a market of high probability and there is nothing that is ever constant in the forex market , because the best market analysis can fail at any time.....'' and i wanted to take a chance updating an analyze i make in '''FOREX-digest Forex analysis: currency and metals AUD/CAD''' link of the analyze
and try to highlight some point about trading in forex market and the probability in it and how to use it in you're favor no matter how it goes , as we see a chart of any pair currency a child can see that it's only move up or down (sideways move still up and down) , and when there is only two action in matter that will make it a 50% chance to go up and 50% chance to go down , so traders have to make the probability of a side higher , using technical analysis can give a huge help in that ,but always make in mind that you will never have the chance of 100% probability even if some how you reach 90% that 10% against you might happen, and you have to be flexible with it , taking our example the aud/cad lets scroll the chart back a bit

what we see ?

up up UP the price is going higher with every pullback happens
we notice the price is doing a pullback and getting near to an support area with an uptrend , so lets see our probability of what happen when price reach the support area
we said we have 50% chance up 50% chance down ,
since the price is on daily up trend we get our probability rise to 55% up , the price is almost at a support area so now we have 60% chance up and adding the little uptrend that would make it 65% chance up , that a high probability right , ok so waiting the price to reach our area lets see in chart

the price reach without a breakout in the first 2 candles which mean 8hours no breakout i would say now the price have a 70% chance to go up from this area and that's a really nice probability i would say , but as we say before even a 10% against you have to keep it in mind and here you have a 30% chance against you , so that's a annalist work now as a trader i would activate a buy position in that area of course and lets see what happen

Ohh , a breakout happen and we get stopped out , and the anger start talking , oh its a scam oh nothing works oh they hunt me....and so on we all been there don't worry ;)

but remember we said a 10% against it means there is a chance to happen and its happen will not always happen but it happen , now you have to focus and remember it's up or down if the reasons that makes you have 70% chance to go up fail (if you do it right you're analyze ) now you have a 75% chance to continue down ...yes 75%.... the probability of going down now it become even more ...

and then i post an analysis for aud/cad lets take a look at it (ps:i didn't post the buy trade because simply i was away :p i would post it buy first if i was around and most of my work is like that if you like to check my analysis in Forex analysis section you can take some note from it ^_^)

and we took it in a short position , lets have an update for it

as you see the price move as expected , because after all it's even up or down doesn't mean you go sell buy sell buy till its right no you have to be smart you have to be flexible and you have to have the knowledge about analysis only then you can play with the market movement probability and you take it in you're advantage

what to keep in mind !

-the market is 2 way direction ONLY , 50% up 50% down
-by learning technical analysis you can make the probability of 1 direction higher
-if you reach the point where you're analysis and anticipation work often(you ll know by practice), that automatically make the probability go higher in opposite if decision number 1 failed
-be smart be calm and be flexible

thank you all for taking time to read, i will welcome and happy to answer any question or discussion in replies

ps:that's how i work and my method in trading with technical and i share this with you for educational purpose and give you ideas might help you improve you're trading ,trading in Forex market is risky if you don't have the right knowledge i advice you to learn first

2. I quite agree with you that the forex trading market is a market of probability because nothing in the forex market is ever constant and things keep changing in the market from time to time , and like you have rightly said, the best of analysis that you have made and so sure of can fail woefully in the forex market. I see the forex market as a market of opportunity and that is the more reason it is not good to waste any opportunity that comes to us in the market because you never can tell when such will come your way again.The forex market does not have any other way to go apart from moving up or coming down and if we have a trading system that can help us to understand when the market can move in either way, then making profits from the market becomes easy.

3. Originally Posted by ORACLE OF GOD
I quite agree with you that the forex trading market is a market of probability because nothing in the forex market is ever constant and things keep changing in the market from time to time , and like you have rightly said, the best of analysis that you have made and so sure of can fail woefully in the forex market. I see the forex market as a market of opportunity and that is the more reason it is not good to waste any opportunity that comes to us in the market because you never can tell when such will come your way again.The forex market does not have any other way to go apart from moving up or coming down and if we have a trading system that can help us to understand when the market can move in either way, then making profits from the market becomes easy.
The Forex market is already one of the hardest markets to deal with. There are many opportunities on the chart that can be entered, but hesitation, decline and fear of loss are an obstacle to the trader. In addition to the correct analysis takes a great time to be honest and reassuring.

The Forex market is already one of the hardest markets to deal with. There are many opportunities on the chart that can be entered, but hesitation, decline and fear of loss are an obstacle to the trader. In addition to the correct analysis takes a great time to be honest and reassuring.
Well, at the beginning, it will seem to be something so really hard, but then if you are serious enough and then give to it more time, you will learn it. In a nutshell, forex is not so hard as we think basically it is all about the emotional discipline aspect that I know that is so much hard and a lot of people have been losing money to the market because they lack emotions.

5. Originally Posted by sniper007
Well, at the beginning, it will seem to be something so really hard, but then if you are serious enough and then give to it more time, you will learn it. In a nutshell, forex is not so hard as we think basically it is all about the emotional discipline aspect that I know that is so much hard and a lot of people have been losing money to the market because they lack emotions.
yes, in forex trading, to learn the system not so long, within a month, we are able to understand a system, but in forex trading, the longest is keeping emotion in trading, every trader has different emotional control, system in this state is very good, and easy to understand by novice tarder like me.

6. Originally Posted by maryrosi
yes, in forex trading, to learn the system not so long, within a month, we are able to understand a system, but in forex trading, the longest is keeping emotion in trading, every trader has different emotional control, system in this state is very good, and easy to understand by novice tarder like me.
Well, I think any one could learn a trading system, but being able to make good use of the trading system is another thing entirely, what it means is that, it takes a long time to learn and know the higher probability of implementing a trading strategy, only when we have got to know that then we can make money from the market.

7. When we work to predict the market, we know it's a market of probabilities and we use all the necessary tools in our disposal to see we can come up with a higher probability setup which we could have confidence on. Anything can still happen in this market but if we can build a high probability setups, then there is more tendency to win most of our trade. We just have to work on our system and build a solid measure that would help see we make good profits.

9. There is a whole lot of opportunity in the forex market because in this market we can trade and make big money but this possibility is only possible when you have a very good understanding and a good strategy to trade in the market we can use this opportunity as our own advantage only when we have a powerful system.

10. Originally Posted by stanlon
There is a whole lot of opportunity in the forex market because in this market we can trade and make big money but this possibility is only possible when you have a very good understanding and a good strategy to trade in the market we can use this opportunity as our own advantage only when we have a powerful system.