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Thread: Probability in FOREX marke ....use it for you're ADVANTAGE !!

  1. #1
    Trader faridoon's Avatar
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    Probability in FOREX market ....use it for you're ADVANTAGE !!


    i would like to welcome you in my topic
    as i was replying in one of my threads to a friend he said and i quote ''....... the forex market is a market of high probability and there is nothing that is ever constant in the forex market , because the best market analysis can fail at any time.....'' and i wanted to take a chance updating an analyze i make in '''FOREX-digest Forex analysis: currency and metals AUD/CAD''' link of the analyze
    and try to highlight some point about trading in forex market and the probability in it and how to use it in you're favor no matter how it goes , as we see a chart of any pair currency a child can see that it's only move up or down (sideways move still up and down) , and when there is only two action in matter that will make it a 50% chance to go up and 50% chance to go down , so traders have to make the probability of a side higher , using technical analysis can give a huge help in that ,but always make in mind that you will never have the chance of 100% probability even if some how you reach 90% that 10% against you might happen, and you have to be flexible with it , taking our example the aud/cad lets scroll the chart back a bit

    what we see ?

    up up UP the price is going higher with every pullback happens
    we notice the price is doing a pullback and getting near to an support area with an uptrend , so lets see our probability of what happen when price reach the support area
    we said we have 50% chance up 50% chance down ,
    since the price is on daily up trend we get our probability rise to 55% up , the price is almost at a support area so now we have 60% chance up and adding the little uptrend that would make it 65% chance up , that a high probability right , ok so waiting the price to reach our area lets see in chart

    the price reach without a breakout in the first 2 candles which mean 8hours no breakout i would say now the price have a 70% chance to go up from this area and that's a really nice probability i would say , but as we say before even a 10% against you have to keep it in mind and here you have a 30% chance against you , so that's a annalist work now as a trader i would activate a buy position in that area of course and lets see what happen

    Ohh , a breakout happen and we get stopped out , and the anger start talking , oh its a scam oh nothing works oh they hunt me....and so on we all been there don't worry ;)

    but remember we said a 10% against it means there is a chance to happen and its happen will not always happen but it happen , now you have to focus and remember it's up or down if the reasons that makes you have 70% chance to go up fail (if you do it right you're analyze ) now you have a 75% chance to continue down ...yes 75%.... the probability of going down now it become even more ...

    and then i post an analysis for aud/cad lets take a look at it (ps:i didn't post the buy trade because simply i was away :p i would post it buy first if i was around and most of my work is like that if you like to check my analysis in Forex analysis section you can take some note from it ^_^)

    and we took it in a short position , lets have an update for it

    as you see the price move as expected , because after all it's even up or down doesn't mean you go sell buy sell buy till its right no you have to be smart you have to be flexible and you have to have the knowledge about analysis only then you can play with the market movement probability and you take it in you're advantage

    what to keep in mind !

    -the market is 2 way direction ONLY , 50% up 50% down
    -by learning technical analysis you can make the probability of 1 direction higher
    -if you reach the point where you're analysis and anticipation work often(you ll know by practice), that automatically make the probability go higher in opposite if decision number 1 failed
    -be smart be calm and be flexible

    thank you all for taking time to read, i will welcome and happy to answer any question or discussion in replies


    ps:that's how i work and my method in trading with technical and i share this with you for educational purpose and give you ideas might help you improve you're trading ,trading in Forex market is risky if you don't have the right knowledge i advice you to learn first

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    Last edited by faridoon; 03-22-2018 at 02:37 PM.

  2. #111
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    Jul 2017
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    I think that forex is the best business that i have every been involved in . Sometimes the market appear easy to trade , but things can just decide to work in your direction no matter how much you try. There is nothing that is constant in the forex market and i believe that every trader is just trying to work according to his knowledge or understanding, but the nature of the market is such that chances do happen and things can just go against you. Forex is the biggest market of probability that i have ever been involved in.

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  3. #112
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    Aug 2013
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    the good trader always knows how to find the good chances of trading and so the possibility of earning will be increased and the trader will be able to maximize the profits and will decrease the possibility of loses always, the trader that has a good experience will save his money and will be able to make consistent profits from the market easily and continuously.

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