what is high probability trading?
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    Registered user Killer_Queen's Avatar
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    what is high probability trading?

    this is my second thread and you can find my first one which also has some relations with this one here with the link http://forum.roboforex.com/threads/2...ategy-on-forex . it is another discussion which talk more about trading in deep thinking, not just from following signals from indicators or our strategies. in a nutshell, we will be trading in value with market.

    what is high probability trading really mean? according to my view, it is when we have all the good aspects in trading which we have been prepared for months or years of learning and practice. it is not an instant process and of course we need to remain as patience as possible until we really understand all things about trading from its basic to the core. as another note to remember, we may learn many things but only choose to learn things we really need in trading and suitable according to our ability to understand.

    high probability of trading can be defined when trader has:
    1. more than 50% success ratio.
    success ratio would only increased when we able to trade carefully and follow our analysis in high discipline. as long as we stick to the plan, things will go smoothly. remember not to look after holy grail system or such thing as perfection in this business because it is just a wishful thinking, not a reality.

    2. trade with higher reward and smaller risk.
    it is obvious to know this as good traders would be defined as good ones unless they can limit their risk into minimum amount and make stable profits. not so big but at least we make it consistently even the amounts are small.

    3. patience to wait until market gives us patterns to follow.
    never and ever create your own opportunity with market because it will not tolerate any of us here for any reasons unless we wait in patience and use our strategy in correct way.
    Screenshot_1.jpg

    4. we trade on what we see on market, not what we think and what we read on internet.
    focus on our own analysis first. do not let other things outside to bother our concentration in trading. we may look out for news information on internet but try to avoid rumors there. use your own calculation both in news and technical trading.

    5. is the price at the high probability zone?
    we need to know this and we can simply check this zone through support and resistance levels. previous support could be the current resistance levels so pay attention to this. things about support and resistance are not fixed as they are changing as market moves in time.
    Screenshot_2.jpg

    6. do we got another confirmations from different techniques or strategies?
    let me give some examples about this. we use couple indicators to trade such as zig zag, macd, and rsi. according to zig zag, we see market is trying to move up. unfortunately another indicators tells things differently and we are suggested to wait for more movements. so according to this point, we must wait until 3 of indicators gives us full clearance about market.

    7. is the price in the trend or sideways?
    this is pretty easy to do and we do not need any specific indicator. try to observe market in daily or weekly time frames. usually when market moved in one direction and never break trend lines or channels, it means market is on trend. otherwise if market has small to average movement, it means market is consolidating.
    Screenshot_3.jpg

    8. is the price move along with our fundamental or technical analysis?
    before this, we must decide first which type of analysis we want to do and follow. when we decide to trade with fundamental , then try to understand market in fundamental way. and so when we choose technical analysis. when our analysis gives us signal to enter, we must not hesitate and take it. never trade without having a single analysis to support us first.

    all these 8 points above seems too common to know but actually they are being avoided many times by traders because they do not consider them necessary things to evaluate and to learn. what about you guys? do you have your own idea about how to trade in high probability? please write your comments below and let us discuss it.

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    Registered user layigold's Avatar
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    A high probability trade is a set up that has greater chances of winning and that kind of set up comes up occasionally and that is why I agree with you said on the patience and discipline level of a trader. If you must get a high probability trade where the trading edge will be in your favor , there is need for patience and high level of discipline , I hope I am talking to those who are traders in the real sense of it , I mean those who have taken the time to acquire the knowledge of trading , relevant trading skills and wealth of experience through serious learning and practice . opportunity of good trade set up will surely come in trading and trader owes himself a duty of waiting for it and you must manage the risks of trading properly no matter how good the set up before you might appear to be , this is necessary because in forex trading , anything can happpen

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    you are saying right that we should observe such points that can help us to find out that either the market is in high volatile and lower volatile and how you manage your risk and reward ratio if you can take a low risk than it can give you low lose in this way you can survive in the market for a long time we must focus to learn such things foe being a real trader than work as gambler.

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    Registered user Obaforex's Avatar
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    High probability trading simply means taking trades that has higher chances of success. In other words it might imply that a trader is simply focusing on trading only few trades and those few trades should be the once that such trader consider to have the highest tendency or probability of winning. So high probability trading involves focus on quality rather than on quantity of trades

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    Registered user Killer_Queen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by layigold View Post
    A high probability trade is a set up that has greater chances of winning and that kind of set up comes up occasionally and that is why I agree with you said on the patience and discipline level of a trader. If you must get a high probability trade where the trading edge will be in your favor , there is need for patience and high level of discipline , I hope I am talking to those who are traders in the real sense of it , I mean those who have taken the time to acquire the knowledge of trading , relevant trading skills and wealth of experience through serious learning and practice . opportunity of good trade set up will surely come in trading and trader owes himself a duty of waiting for it and you must manage the risks of trading properly no matter how good the set up before you might appear to be , this is necessary because in forex trading , anything can happpen
    everything you wrote here are the points of high probability trading. we only trade when we see market has clearer signals from our strategy and when we are available for trading and monitoring our trades. we do not need to trade when there is no signal from our strategy and when we see small chances for us to get a good entry. look only for good momentum to enter and take it with full efforts without hesitation.

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    Registered user sniper007's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by layigold View Post
    A high probability trade is a set up that has greater chances of winning and that kind of set up comes up occasionally and that is why I agree with you said on the patience and discipline level of a trader. If you must get a high probability trade where the trading edge will be in your favor , there is need for patience and high level of discipline , I hope I am talking to those who are traders in the real sense of it , I mean those who have taken the time to acquire the knowledge of trading , relevant trading skills and wealth of experience through serious learning and practice . opportunity of good trade set up will surely come in trading and trader owes himself a duty of waiting for it and you must manage the risks of trading properly no matter how good the set up before you might appear to be , this is necessary because in forex trading , anything can happpen
    We are just mere traders and we just have to make analysis in accordance and we don't know the movement of the market, but from the experience we have, we get to know where the market will move and we know the signal that works the most, in a nutshell, not as though that signal works all time, but we know it has more chances of working. Therefore we should not take higher risk when we think we have seen the higher probability trades.

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    Registered user maryrosi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sniper007 View Post
    We are just mere traders and we just have to make analysis in accordance and we don't know the movement of the market, but from the experience we have, we get to know where the market will move and we know the signal that works the most, in a nutshell, not as though that signal works all time, but we know it has more chances of working. Therefore we should not take higher risk when we think we have seen the higher probability trades.
    to get a high probability in forex trading, it takes patience and also discipline in trading, patient and discipline also greatly affect the psychology psychology of a trader, many traders who experienced a large loss, most of them who experienced a big loss in because it was not patient and also not disciplined in their own trading, high probability is very desirable by all traders in the world ..

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    Quote Originally Posted by alih View Post
    you are saying right that we should observe such points that can help us to find out that either the market is in high volatile and lower volatile and how you manage your risk and reward ratio if you can take a low risk than it can give you low lose in this way you can survive in the market for a long time we must focus to learn such things foe being a real trader than work as gambler.
    these type of trade as you can show when possible if trader have a lot of patience cause if there is not then they do not work longer in this field and its very importance and the only thing that need in trade so i seen many of traders they do not have such kind of things they cant control there emotions and also a patience and this trade highly trades so if you can open 1 trade then you have to wait for success ......

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    If we complete our trading knowledge and strategy understanding, we could come up with a good way to have a good trading strategy been used in the market and then knowing the best time which when we make use of it, then we make money the more. Higher probability trades comes with time, depending on how much experience we have developed, we are mostly likely to see and ascertain which one will most likely work.

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    Registered user Killer_Queen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alih View Post
    you are saying right that we should observe such points that can help us to find out that either the market is in high volatile and lower volatile and how you manage your risk and reward ratio if you can take a low risk than it can give you low lose in this way you can survive in the market for a long time we must focus to learn such things foe being a real trader than work as gambler.
    which is why we should always be realistic in trading and never hope that market would always move according to our analysis. patience is the key to good trades and we must behave like that as always. no need to hasty to open a trade when we see no opportunities just yet. becoming a discipline trader is when we can manage ourself to follow our strategy and always trade by it.

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