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  1. #1
    Registered user Killer_Queen's Avatar
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    what is high probability trading?

    this is my second thread and you can find my first one which also has some relations with this one here with the link http://forum.roboforex.com/threads/2...ategy-on-forex . it is another discussion which talk more about trading in deep thinking, not just from following signals from indicators or our strategies. in a nutshell, we will be trading in value with market.

    what is high probability trading really mean? according to my view, it is when we have all the good aspects in trading which we have been prepared for months or years of learning and practice. it is not an instant process and of course we need to remain as patience as possible until we really understand all things about trading from its basic to the core. as another note to remember, we may learn many things but only choose to learn things we really need in trading and suitable according to our ability to understand.

    high probability of trading can be defined when trader has:
    1. more than 50% success ratio.
    success ratio would only increased when we able to trade carefully and follow our analysis in high discipline. as long as we stick to the plan, things will go smoothly. remember not to look after holy grail system or such thing as perfection in this business because it is just a wishful thinking, not a reality.

    2. trade with higher reward and smaller risk.
    it is obvious to know this as good traders would be defined as good ones unless they can limit their risk into minimum amount and make stable profits. not so big but at least we make it consistently even the amounts are small.

    3. patience to wait until market gives us patterns to follow.
    never and ever create your own opportunity with market because it will not tolerate any of us here for any reasons unless we wait in patience and use our strategy in correct way.
    Attachment 21818

    4. we trade on what we see on market, not what we think and what we read on internet.
    focus on our own analysis first. do not let other things outside to bother our concentration in trading. we may look out for news information on internet but try to avoid rumors there. use your own calculation both in news and technical trading.

    5. is the price at the high probability zone?
    we need to know this and we can simply check this zone through support and resistance levels. previous support could be the current resistance levels so pay attention to this. things about support and resistance are not fixed as they are changing as market moves in time.
    Attachment 21819

    6. do we got another confirmations from different techniques or strategies?
    let me give some examples about this. we use couple indicators to trade such as zig zag, macd, and rsi. according to zig zag, we see market is trying to move up. unfortunately another indicators tells things differently and we are suggested to wait for more movements. so according to this point, we must wait until 3 of indicators gives us full clearance about market.

    7. is the price in the trend or sideways?
    this is pretty easy to do and we do not need any specific indicator. try to observe market in daily or weekly time frames. usually when market moved in one direction and never break trend lines or channels, it means market is on trend. otherwise if market has small to average movement, it means market is consolidating.
    Attachment 21820

    8. is the price move along with our fundamental or technical analysis?
    before this, we must decide first which type of analysis we want to do and follow. when we decide to trade with fundamental , then try to understand market in fundamental way. and so when we choose technical analysis. when our analysis gives us signal to enter, we must not hesitate and take it. never trade without having a single analysis to support us first.

    all these 8 points above seems too common to know but actually they are being avoided many times by traders because they do not consider them necessary things to evaluate and to learn. what about you guys? do you have your own idea about how to trade in high probability? please write your comments below and let us discuss it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tonycee View Post
    A good trade with a higher probability of winning are trades well executed with better plans and this type of trades gives us a perfect way to prepare for risk and ensure that there is a good management too. Also good candlesticks analysis that gives us more views of a proper direction with different time frames gets to increase our chance of having a good trade and with good execution we will be on our way to winnings. So it's necessary that before we execute any trade, we must make better analysis and make sure we do not take trades blindly. We must be very prepared on having a good trade and make sure we could manage our trade in the best kind of way.
    The thinking of perfection with forex trading and life in general makes me laugh because I know so well that there is none actually. As we can read here, it says higher probability trade and which means that it could fail and that means there is no perfection. Secondly, I think we get to know know about the higher probability trade in accordance with the analysis we have engaged on so far.

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    Registered user Obaforex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer_Queen View Post
    8. is the price move along with our fundamental or technical analysis?
    Now this is a very good point that your trades must comply with before your chances or probability of success can be significantly high enough to be regarded as high probability trading. usually price moves in agreement with fundamental and technical market setups, so when you are in a trade that has the backing and support of both fundamental and technical market setups it is almost impossible to loss, the only difficulty you might probably have left is where to close your trades to maximize profit on such opportunity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Obaforex View Post
    Now this is a very good point that your trades must comply with before your chances or probability of success can be significantly high enough to be regarded as high probability trading. usually price moves in agreement with fundamental and technical market setups, so when you are in a trade that has the backing and support of both fundamental and technical market setups it is almost impossible to loss, the only difficulty you might probably have left is where to close your trades to maximize profit on such opportunity.
    Not all the times, that is thing we need to know for sure, some times they don't agree to each other and one best thing about the market is that, if we want to have a more clearer form of trading, I don't encourage we using the fundamental and technical approach at the same time, because we need to make good sure that we pay attention to using just one trading method and analysis, not making use of multiple analysis method because it works less.

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  5. #24
    Registered user Sixteen's Avatar
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    It's really good for us to have a trading system that will increase our chance to which we could win in forex. A trade with a high probability rate of success is essential for us to follow and we can really have a high increase to win more of the time. I make sure I follow the best part to learn about forex and for me this is the very business that can help me succeed with forex. We can build a good system and this system can really increase our chances to see we are capable of making a good trade.

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    This is indeed a very great thread that is worth giving good attention to study by all traders because most of the time we take so many trades which always go wrong with us because we do not always wait for the right trade to come up so that we an benefit maximally from it. If we can be more patient, then we will get trades with very high probability in the market so that we can make more profits from any of the trades that we take. It is not just enough to take good trades from the market,but better to take those trades with very high probability.

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    Quote Originally Posted by glory3 View Post
    This is indeed a very great thread that is worth giving good attention to study by all traders because most of the time we take so many trades which always go wrong with us because we do not always wait for the right trade to come up so that we an benefit maximally from it. If we can be more patient, then we will get trades with very high probability in the market so that we can make more profits from any of the trades that we take. It is not just enough to take good trades from the market,but better to take those trades with very high probability.
    That is true, because here we have been able to learn and know what a higher probability trades is all about, with this trading knowledge, it will be much more easier to know how we can make god use of our trading strategy. And most importantly, what we have to pay much more attention to is making sure that we are always picking the higher probability trades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sixteen View Post
    It's really good for us to have a trading system that will increase our chance to which we could win in forex. A trade with a high probability rate of success is essential for us to follow and we can really have a high increase to win more of the time. I make sure I follow the best part to learn about forex and for me this is the very business that can help me succeed with forex. We can build a good system and this system can really increase our chances to see we are capable of making a good trade.
    it depends on the analysis method, the discipline and the good experience. Because someone that has not traded and hasn't been in the market for long will not be able to know the trade that has higher success rate. But when the demo account has been often in use and we have some couple of good trade and some bad ones, we will then should be able to know the best of them all.

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  9. #28
    Registered user Killer_Queen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obaforex View Post
    Now this is a very good point that your trades must comply with before your chances or probability of success can be significantly high enough to be regarded as high probability trading. usually price moves in agreement with fundamental and technical market setups, so when you are in a trade that has the backing and support of both fundamental and technical market setups it is almost impossible to loss, the only difficulty you might probably have left is where to close your trades to maximize profit on such opportunity.
    indeed it is a good point because we can easily decide whether to trade or not based on what we see through our technical or fundamental analysis, is it following price action or not. once we found out price action is moving in harmony with our technical or fundamental then we can certainly sure our trade has high probability to give us profit and lesser chance we will lose our money.

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    Registered user cutiekc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer_Queen View Post
    indeed it is a good point because we can easily decide whether to trade or not based on what we see through our technical or fundamental analysis, is it following price action or not. once we found out price action is moving in harmony with our technical or fundamental then we can certainly sure our trade has high probability to give us profit and lesser chance we will lose our money.
    You now making such decisions has to do with the past trading experience the traders has gotten.. Trading the higher probability trade setup will be known in regards with the past experience because I am in such position now, when I see a trading setup, I know the one that will likely work and I know that one that I am to avoid when trading. That is the advantage of being experienced.

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  11. #30
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    Sir, from my own perspective, i do not think there is anything like high probability trading in the forex market. I know that it is very good for any trader to do a proper market analysis all the time so as to be able to determine the direction of the market according to his understanding and knowledge which tome is a good thing, but most of the time even the trade that we have a high hope of making money from ended up in a loss and you wonder what is happening to you as a trader. This is where i like to bring in the aspect of money and risk management because if we guide and protect our trading capital very well, then whatever happen to our trades will not have a damaging effects on our trading capital.The best market set up can be rubbish at any time .

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