Playing with the logic in trading
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Thread: Playing with the logic in trading

  1. #1

    Playing with the logic in trading

    I will try to make a trading journal, I hope this can represent my understanding of trading and forex market.

    Trading plan:

    Basically I was a longterm trader....
    I think the market is an overview of the condition of the balance between supply and demand, so I have never forgotten this principle in every trade that I did.
    I want to unify the logic of the three basic elements of a forex trade, that is mindset, methods, and money management.
    I'm looking for a good moment of all pairs, but I only open the position in one currency pairs.
    Usually I always analyze the market in monthly time frame, if there is no chance, then I will analyze in weekly chart, and if there is no chance on weekly time frame, then I will analyze in daily chart, and so on ....
    I just analyze the technical basis, there is no indicator that a permanent option for me, all the indicators are useful for me. But there are times when I do not use indicators at all. And even I can open a position by analyzing the fundamental conditions. And I will take the position even though only from rumors, if it is potential to making profits.

    I am always open positions by averaging techniques with risk management manually, manually cut loss and take profit manually, max 4 positions in one day, there are usually closed position within few hours, and there are some positions that I hold up as far as possible.

    This journal is a motivation for me to improve my trading skills, because this strategy is purely based on my understanding, and I have never used this strategy before.

    I think this is enough to explain my trading plan, if I explain it all could probably spend 10 page thread. In essence, I just use a simple technique. Only rely on logic.

  2. #2
    To start this journal, I made one demo account with $ 1,000 of deposits, under certain conditions I would use the bonus account, and deposit accounts to be used in this journal. Maybe this could be proof of my seriousness in starting this journal with my technique. I just wanted to test how much my skills in manage accounts, in fact I'm still looking for success in trading. Failure is not the end of everything, in fact I have experienced many failures in the past, but now I can still survive.

    This afternoon BOJ's commitment to maintain the amount of the monetary base in the country. Efforts of the BOJ is in line with the efforts of Shinzo Abe to raise Japan out of deflation conditions.
    Well, Does this indicate that inflation will continue to yen? Seems from the fundamental side it can happen even to the middle of next year.
    Something that is uncertain, because all possibilities can happen in instantly, the plan is just a plan, results are not necessarily in line with expectations.

    To test the mental and psychological, I made ​​the decision to open a position opposite to the long-term trend, This is my first step in examining how much my skills in managing money in my account, of course, using simple technical analysis, for this I will forget all the fundamentals conditions.

    All countries must have tried to maintain economic stability, so I will try to invest in yen, and try to find the best conditions in poor condition. This may look like a joke, but this is a good way to test the mental / psychological in applying money / risk management. And how can I control the fear in the trade. At least I should be able to manage capital to survive when I get the worst conditions in the trade, as far as Japan is not experiencing economic collapse, I should be able to survive in this trade. Because there is always a cycle: Recession -> recovery -> expansion. or in technical: peak -> trough -> peak or breakout peak.

    I use the bonus account to do this, find the right pair of technical conditions, I found the ideal pair to do this.
    That is chf/jpy....

    We see in the monthly chart history, now chf/jpy are on the highest price in history chart. Does this is the safest moment to entry? I think not always, Because it can happen breakout and form new highest price in the monthly chart.

    And I analyzed from the H4 chart, the price has come out of the zone bullish trend channel, and now form a flat area, the distance between support and resistance = 100 pips.

    I do not see any valid signals for bearish trend in the long run, but I purposely opened two short positions and hold for the long-term trend.

    profit / loss: + 7 pips accumulated
    mc: 900 pips
    Target profits: $ 500 - $1,000 in equity.

    Honestly I expect a bullish breakout, so I could test the extent of my skill of managing equity in a bad condition. and in the psychological pressure.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  3. #3
    I observing some pairs, one of which is the NZD/USD, today is the last day in October, so tomorrow we will see how the new candle pattern on the monthly chart.
    currently ... candle pattern which is formed as in the screenshot ..

    I do not know the pattern name

    There are several changes in the pattern of trend line, current prices are in the flat phase, current prices are in the flat phase, long-term bullish power has dropped, indicated of oscillators bar which has dropped towards balanced (0).

    In the daily chart, current price is in consolidation zone, There is a divergence signal to take a short position. I opened 3 positions in the demo account, 1 sell position (instant execution), 1 pending position (sell stop) for breakout support, and 1 pending position (sell limit) for overbought in resistance.

  4. #4
    I have closed one position in chf / jpy, profit = 131 pips. and one position I hold for the long term. I am waiting for a correction to put a new position. The pair seemed to be trying to go down again for the long-term trend. The result that I get in this day is pretty good. (maybe)

  5. #5
    Well, I see a reversal of NZD / USD before the market close of last week,It turns flat condition still persisted until the closing market, seen from candlestick pattern in the daily chart.

    And from H1 looks the same power between bullish and bearish trend on a few hours earlier.

    But I still prefer to hold short positions, because this is a good moment to open short positions for the long-term trend.

    Because I prefer money management than anything else, I think even just by playing lotsize at the right moment we can be profitable accumulation, although we have a system with ratio 1 win: 9 loss in probability.
    This is the key in my system, the logic is very simple but hard to understand if our mindset clouded by complexity of the technical strategy. If this is successful, I will share this system in this forum.
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by HAMEDFX View Post
    well it is good to have a trading journal as well as having a trading plan and also making use of your trading plan all the time is another good thing but this can only be achieved by the trader who is very disciplined because when you are not a disciplined trader it becomes very difficult for you to be able to keep to the rules of the game.
    Hello dear my friend....
    First of all, thank you for visiting my thread...
    Yeah, you are right, I may not be successful in using this technique without any discipline, this journal may be a means for me in practicing self-discipline.
    I just tried to initiate a strategy that actually I had never practiced before, but this is not just about technical strategy .. and not just about analysis., But it is a unity between strategy, money management, and ... psychological, and I rely on my mindset in the trade. I further highlight in money management ....

    However here I learned, so your suggestions and feedback from you is a gift for me .... thanks dear my brother

  7. #7
    I opened a new sell position in the upper trendline, expect a correction in accordance with the trendline channel pattern.
    Utilizing the profit that I get as a new margin. It was better than I used capital from my wallet.

    A different conditions in H4, the prices are currently in lower trendline. Then what will happen ...., just wait and see

    News release on this day that can be used as a reference in the open position. Is certainly related to this pair.
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  8. #8
    Plans are going well ..., I close my position. It looks like the market will move sideways in the daily range. Just wait and see ...

    And see the position of NZD/USD is currently ..., why am I watching this pair? Because I have one short positions and pending orders in the demo account.

    I made 3 forecasts according to a simple trend pattern of support and resistance, with the difference in slope of, we see there are 3 possibilities ....
    Just relax, enjoy a cup of coffee, and do not be too nervous in making analysis and decisions.
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  9. #9
    In chf/jpy, I closed the last position and hold only one position for the long term. while waiting for a new moment for entry.

    And NZD/USD I see there is a significant rebound, I think this is the effect of the fundamental, but I have not found any information.
    I opened a new sell position near the upper trendline.

  10. #10
    My second position in the NZD / USD has been clear after the correction from upper trend channel, and now the market continued bullish trend, a condition is worrying, though usd receiving positive sentiment from investors, but for NZD seen no effect.
    But I try to test the bullish trend, I try to fight the market, but still use small lot size. open a new position in the upper trend channel for the second time.

    Just wait n see what will happen

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