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Thread: Debt default in United States?

  1. #1
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    Debt default in United States?

    Hi traders!

    You know me as price action trader, normally I’m careless about news, but this time things can be different.

    Let’s talk a bit about possible default in United States. How it will affect markets and real sector?

    First of all, I think that default scenario doesn’t absolutely make sense to politicians, either democrats or republicans. Every serious politician knows that he will do political suicide if US will go bankrupt. I should mention that market probably is not too serious about default in US. Otherwise, Gold futures would rally and trade somewhere near 1500 USD per ounce.

    Is Gold rising?

    Look at the Gold futures chart (GC) with expiration in December 2013, we see that market obviously has no interest in Gold. As you know, during financial crisis demand for gold is very high. It seems that broad market doesn’t bet on this scenario

    Attachment 1874



    Why is this happening?

    It started not yesterday or even not 2-3 years ago. In 2001 (!), when USA had positive trade balance, they were unable to cover a single penny of their debt. So, not surprisingly they can’t do it today. Their economic model is designed to consistently raise debt ceiling. If years before that it was considered as necessary but optional, now they simply can’t stop. So, I think, they will not allow United States to go bankrupt – dollar is the only valuable commodity for export in this country.



    If it happens, what to expect?


    First of all, don’t panic. Remember – markets will tend to act «flight-to-safety» scenario. But in this case, I would play against the crowd. We might see temporary decline of US dollar, and it would give good price to invest some cash in dollar buying cheap (of course, I’m talking about keeping ones money in currency, not about speculating and trading).
    Psychological reaction of decline is expectable, but don’t be with the crowd – step aside! In longer term perspective demand for US dollar will increase because QE program will be terminated after the default – termination of QE will bring deficit of dollars and increased demand.


    Bottom line:

    I don’t believe in default, but keep an eye on markets and be very careful if flight-to-safety scenario will start happening. No short term techniques will be reliable in this case – no levels will be working, volatility can become tremendous. Just keep an eye and be aware.

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  2. #21
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    US data and new-York session is very much important and volitile for the major currencies and gold specialy in my thinking and experience. because gold moves very fast in the new yor sessions opening. us data impact is very much high on the financial market over all the world.

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  3. #22
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    to make the trading the united state is the good country and there all the broker are the fare and registered with the some security matters so we have to join the forex broker those who has the registration with the government and has a well and good reputation in the market

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  4. #23
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    i am problem the soulation theses. This is aloof a rumor and ball fabricated by Republicans. It is 5fast you are follow the logic and read them still cat-and-mouse for the acceptance about this account and rumors after a time it is solved

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  5. #24
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    I surprised by their economical crisis. I tried to thinking about that why a country like United States fall in such kind of economical condition. In the chart i think it clearly shows that gold price will fall and its a clear hint for the bad economy. I am new in trading so cant tell more. I think we need to be cautious if we want to join any kind of activity with USA. Thanks to all..

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  6. #25
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    It is useful for the United States and thanks much for your valuable information. The default value is not involved in politics, most of the time if you can sour. For this reason, you can also continue its hunt for the country's past. Economics of the country is concerned, it is best to check the data before bad things. All the latter, as well as to the United States because of their independence is maintained.

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  7. #26
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    United States are not going to default any soon. Don't get fooled by the childish games republican and democratic politicians play in the US. Even market isn't taking them seriously (and wasn't taking them seriously, the gains in gold and losses in american equities were just small). In fact I believe that US has a great economic period ahead, possibly lasting upto 2020 or even beyond. I'm talking about higher than 3% RGDP p.a. on average, strong US dollar and US equities rallying sky high to 2020 (from their present values). It's due to the technological inovations and positive government policies. This will happen unless some geopolitical tensions bring back cold war or worse...+ assuming that China will keep its growth above 7% RGDP p.a.

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  8. #27
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    The debt crisis in America also surprised me, why are great state like that of a sudden have the most recent advice regarding their debt enormous. However, I additionally has an extremely broad range globally, because the money is still used in many states and understand the American economic turn around is quite secure.

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  9. #28
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    Thanks much for this useful and helpful details about america. Upon if politics isn't concerned many occasions foreclosures might be measured. For this reason I understand the past of the nation may nevertheless continue steadily to search along her. Before issues goes criminal so far as the financial aspect of the nation can be involved, it's more straightforward to examine information. With each one of these, the united states continues to be sustaining their stay because of politics.

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  10. #29
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    yeah, I was additionally afraid by the debt crisis in the america, why are cool abundant accompaniment like that accept the latest advice apropos their debt immense all of a abrupt . But I apperceive that the American bread-and-butter turnaround is actual abiding and additionally has a actual advanced ambit internationally, because the bill they use is still bargain acclimated in abounding countries.so they are consistently in advanteg.they can ample up any aperture

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  11. #30
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    Thanks so much for this useful and valuable information about the united states. Defaults could be counted upon if politics is not involved most times. This is why i know that the past of the country might still continue to hunt her down. As far as the economic side of the country is concerned, it is better to check data before things goes rogue. With all these, the USA is still maintaining their stand due to politics.

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