Value trader
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  1. #1
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    Value trader

    Hi there!

    I will also keep my journal here, and here's my trading plan:


    TRADING PLAN:


    I'm a short-term (1-3 days) momentum trader employing price action and market logics to identify good opportunities.

    I basically divide market states on 2 groups:

    Balanced and imbalanced market.

    Inside of these two groups there are also insitutuinal imbalance and short-term imbalance (weak holders are in control). Know more about my approach to trading here ("Price action basics" posts). Also you can attend webinars, concerning these trading principles


    Trading in balanced market:

    For this type of market I will need to see volatility and rejection in the center of the bracket. To see rejection, I use several clues - directional candles, gaps, pinbars e t.c.
    Rejected level located in the center of the bracket I call "rotational center".
    I use it as a reference point and important trade location. I will trade on volatile breakouts of rotational center heading to the extremes of this bracket


    Trading in imbalanced market:

    In this case, I expect to see participation of big money buyers/sellers.
    For that purpose, I have some clues:

    1. Days with extremely low volatility near extremes
    2. Neutral days after breakouts
    3. Minor development areas protection
    4. One-timeframing moves

    e t.c.


    Mostly I trade momentum, duration of trades are pretty fast (3-4 hours), but sometimes I hold position overnight (from US to Asian session) and in special situations, I trade 2-3 day swings, fading correctional movements. Of course, I should have very strong conviction about big buyer/seller presence in the market


    My objective:

    I want to improve my trade selection and decrease overall quantity of trades, improving their qualty. Historically, I make 30-40 trades a month, the better number is 20-30 with more accurate trade selection

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    Last edited by Value trader; 10-07-2013 at 01:08 PM.

  2. #2
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    I will attach new trades for this week as they will occur.



    Previous week I had 4 trades, basically in balanced market.


    1. Long GBPJPY:

    I entered long GBPJPY after rapid volatile movement and rotational center violation:
    Result: +34

    trade1.jpg

    2. Long EURUSD:

    I entered long EURUSD on squeeze to extremes. Market is driven by institutuonal buyer, that's why we see rapid squeezes to the upside. Short sellers have tough times yet fast momentum buyer can benefit from such movements

    Result: +31

    trade2.jpg


    2. Short USDCAD

    Here I tried to fade the extreme, but of course with sell-stop order on rotational center violation. Due to low tempo, I've decided to cover at the end of the day

    trade3.jpg

    Result: +10


    3. Long AUDUSD

    Fourth trade - long AUDUSD on rotational center violation.
    Also here we see volatility, that creates rapid intraday swings rejecting rotational center:

    Result: +30

    trade4_.jpg


    Overall result for the week: +105 pips

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    Last edited by Value trader; 10-07-2013 at 01:10 PM.

  3. #3
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    Typical momentum trade on AUDUSD today.

    Market goes under imbalance with participation of institutional buyer.
    Look - we have sequence of neutral days.

    When I have imbalance in place, I can work (buy) on the edge of price action - price (not value) is leading in this case. Big buyer will liquidate on the way up

    1.jpg

    Now I've reduced my risk (to 4 pips) and have paper profit. I will try to hold this trade to 0.9515, but everything will depend on confidence of buyers (maybe I will cover earlier)

    2.jpg

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  4. #4
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    Sir, i really interested with your trading system. I want to learn to use your trading system, but i dont understand about 'rotational center.' could you please to explain about it more? how we can identify the rotational center, what is your timeframe, and how you place your stop loss? thanks for your help sir,, :)

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by elena View Post
    Sir, i really interested with your trading system. I want to learn to use your trading system, but i dont understand about 'rotational center.' could you please to explain about it more? how we can identify the rotational center, what is your timeframe, and how you place your stop loss? thanks for your help sir,, :)
    Rotational center is a rejected level located somewhere in the center of the bracket.
    What is rejected level? How do I identify rejection and why is this important?

    It's important because market tends to keep away from rejected levels for whatever reason (liquidity is low there). Rejection can occur on the way up, on the way down, rejection can be inside of the gap, inside of the "rail formation" (look screen below)

    example.jpg
    example2.jpg

    Once you find prominent rotational center and volatility is in place, you have decent odds that price will continue moving after rotational center is violated (rejected level will be likely rejected one more time, volatility creates assymetric opportunity)

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  6. #6
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    Today's trade update:

    It was eventually closed with 4 pips loss, yet I had some paper profit today. I overestimated strength of imbalance a bit. Pretty soon this movement was reversed. Yet, loss is small and I search for new trades

    robo_trade.jpg

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  7. #7
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    Today I'm also trying to trade-off imbalance scenario on AUDUSD.

    Previous day closed at the same price as it's opening. According to my view, AUDUSD can breakout to the upside again. I've picked trade location above rotational center and reduced my risk to 5 pips (initial stop is 10 pips)

    trade1.jpg
    trade2.jpg

    Update:

    It was closed with 5 pips loss. Well, nothing good for today, I will search the market for other trades, but, probably I will also try to re-enter long for AUDUSD

    Re-entered AUDUSD again:

    aud_robo.jpg

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    Last edited by Value trader; 10-09-2013 at 09:55 PM.

  8. #8
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    Yesterday's trade update:

    AUDUSD long was closed with 8 pips loss, I have small losing streak since the beginning of this week (yet, losses are small sized). Market is not that clear for me right now.
    I had pretty strong bias on AUDUSD.

    This is the after-effect of ongoing winning streak (I had several profitable weeks before this time). Strong directional bias is the signal to be aware of bad trade selection!

    __________________________________________________ ________________


    Today I've finally captured some move on AUDUSD on rotational center violation.
    Initial stop was about 20 pips, then moved to 10

    stop.jpg

    Update:

    Closed with 20 pips profit, momentum is too slow here.

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    Last edited by Value trader; 10-10-2013 at 08:29 PM.

  9. #9
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    Today I'm again keeping an eye on AUDUSD. It seems that breakout is building in this market.

    Later on I will probably come with long trade - from pullback, or just going with the price, don't know yet

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  10. #10
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    Yesterday I haven't found good setups to join AUDUSD rally and find good trade location, but overall growth was nice as expected.
    Today will continue searching for trades.

    UPDATE:

    Nice rally today on AUDUSD, but no trades closed yet.
    Tomorrow will update again

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    Last edited by Value trader; 10-15-2013 at 07:47 PM.

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