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  1. #1
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    Price action basics. Part 5

    «Thing that hasn’t happened is sometimes more important in the market than thing that has happened»

    I want to start this thread with this strange sentence. We will talk about trading logic. How do you make decisions? Do you look for signs of buyer and seller and act accordingly?

    Think about simple thing – price action itself (trend, movement) will not allow you to benefit from that. Some movements are continued, some are reversed. It depends on current market conditions, but probability of success will be close to 50/50 if you simply follow price action (substract spreads and rapid volatility spikes and you will get perfect strategy for failure).

    So, what works?

    If you dig deeper than simply following price action, you will understand that supply and demand will drive the market. But supply can be short-term, then transform into demand and vice versa. So, you have to rely on professional supply and professional demand and be able to distinguish it between other fluctuations.
    All that we learn here is designed for that. Professional demand (or supply) in most cases is ongoing demand. But are we naive enough to think, that professional buyer will uncover his actions for you in easy identifiable and straightforward way?
    No, they don’t do that!

    There are numerous attempts to capture signs of professional activity using volumes. Some traders think that if they have volumes, they have real information. Poor guys!

    Volumes are also misleading. So, one can not be successful in trying to capture big buyer from the market… if he thinks in conventional way.

    Market tells you a story and you should understand this story, combining nuances and clues (even number of volumes if you like) in the whole picture.


    Here are several examples:

    1. Market breaks out from a level and keeps level above. You see strange passive behavior of sellers – market shows you levels with very low volatility and holds there twice! If sellers were interested in this market, they would probably responded immediately. But you see no participation – something wrong with the supply is going on here.
    Therefore you can anticipate that big guys are buyers! They’ve collected all supply below and no one wants to go against them at least for a while.

    Not surprisingly price breaks out to the upside again


    Attachment 1732


    2. There’s neutral day after the breakout. If there were short-term traders who have made this breakout, they would liquidate pretty soon. But nothing happens – nothing at all! All day price goes back and forth with very low tempo. It means that probably those buyers were big (institutional) buyers.


    Attachment 1733

    Every time you analyze the market, you make narrative. Be sure that your narrative is reasonable and relies on solid market logics

    There are some important principles:

    1. Insitutional buyers will sell on the upside breakout (not downside)

    2. Low volatility after high volatility (directional breakout) shows lack of participation. The less liquidity (participation) we have near current levels, the more odds that market will auction higher.

    Is it complex?

    Yes, it is. But this is mindset that requires from you some disbelief, some critical view, some commitment to dig deeper and see what is hidden. That what trading is about.

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    Last edited by Value trader; 10-04-2013 at 08:38 PM.

  2. #21
    Trader layigold's Avatar
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    I have actually benefited from this thread because I am able to see the concept of demand and supply in new dimensions but that does not mean that trading price action on purely technical analysis is useless. I trade pure price action and I am doing well in my trades but the new things I have just learned from this thread is great help to me and this will help me improve better on my performance.

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  3. #22
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    This is the very good finding out equipment. Through this kind of place We came to be familiar with price and also motion standard. Really I am newbie and also trying to learn forex trading. The more We key in detail regarding finding out the more We become speculate to understand quite a few fresh things. I really hope to carry on this sort of kinds of finding out equipment in this place to show the actual newbie just like myself...

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  4. #23
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    Yes it is complex indeed, I even had to take my time to study some chart after reading your post,I know this might be difficult to practice at first but i be live that with constant practise we would understand better. Thanks for sharing

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  5. #24
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    there's lot of correlation between foreign currencies in currency markets and selling price modifications in key foreign currencies can affect industry normally, and even when the broker makes a decision to follow merely one pair and comprehend it wonderfully he or she also needs to look into different pair while the activity can help him count on future activity associated with his pair...

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  6. #25
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    They are useful for trader but only those trader can get benefits of amount who an calculate the path for a frequent trader amount indicates motions but for trader who can assess quantities he can figure out the path of the market which can help him to technique accordingly. Some people use complex directly charts for the same but every one cannot get this techniques it's challenging to get. There are many professionals which talk about their amount based analysis without cost.

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  7. #26
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    Absorbtion and accumulation and then distribution are the phases and one point is very gud that institutional players sell on upside breakouts because in strong trends demand can occur at so many places

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  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamuna View Post
    This is a good learning tools. Through this thread I came to know about price and action basic. Actually I am newbie and trying to learn forex. The more I enter in depth of learning the more I become wonder to learn many new things. I hope to continue such types of learning tools in this thread to teach the newbie like me.
    This is a great learning instruments. Through that line My partner and i located be familiar with price tag as well as motion essential. Truly My business is newbie as well as learning forex. Greater My partner and i go in detail regarding learning a lot more My partner and i become speculate to learn many completely new things. I hope to stay such kinds of learning instruments in this line to train this newbie similar to me personally.

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  9. #28
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    Most of the things that happen in the market are nothing but repetition of what happened in the past and this reflected in the price dropping from previous resistance and bouncing form key previous areas of support. However there is no guarantee that price will do the same as what it did in the past. Some times it may break previous support or resistance and make a long move. Being a price action trader, one can make out what it is likely to do next.

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  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by uchexxx View Post
    Yes it is complex indeed, I even had to take my time to study some chart after reading your post,I know this might be difficult to practice at first but i be live that with constant practise we would understand better. Thanks for sharing
    I think so, forex is quite complex although it looks simple for commonly people. The price could move upward or downward or sideways based on many things which can affect it. Practice can give better consideration in making decision and it can give higher possibility of profit. To know price action pattern accurately, it will need constant practice.

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  11. #30
    Trader Hukam's Avatar
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    That's a very nice statement that's true that breakout strategy work will in this market but I as I mentioned many time in this forum that our money management, and risk management is very important in this business always choose a very good entry for buying and selling at the time of breakout.

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