Sekiryutei's trading day with Roboforex - Page 2
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Thread: Sekiryutei's trading day with Roboforex

  1. #1
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    Talking Sekiryutei's trading day with Roboforex

    Hello guys and welcome to my thread and please enjoy it!
    First of all, i feel proud to take in the contest myselves and i hope that my thread is good enough to be considered as a participant.
    Well then, let's start!

    My trading style is fundamental ones and i'm sure most of the members here have already known about that by reading my posts!
    So if there are anything hard for you to understand, you can try to ask me here and i'll gladly response in return!

    But first, my trading style can become short term or even become long term depending on the situation.
    Now, you might be confused as how i will make an entry or make a position.
    There are a few things that i will consider before making a position.
    1. What is the sentiment in the market right now and how dangerous it is to make an entry.
    2. What kind of data will change the market's view or even shock the market.
    3. Is the current price already priced in or not?

    Lemme give you a few examples regarding this!



    this is the position i'm entering on 7th December 2015(or today;lol)
    First why i'm shorting EUR/USD pair?
    The reason is in here



    This data is simply too good to be true. Average wages and Unemployment rate is stable which makes USD will be bullish across all pairs;
    but what is the most important one is the NFP which revised from last month to better and the data this month above 200k.
    As long the NFP is above 200k, that means US will have a very high chance to raise their interest rate later.
    Now the question will be why i'm entering on Monday but not Friday?

    First, when the data is too good to be true, most traders will enter the market without a second thought. That is the reason why i'm waiting for the market to stabilize first. Some big guns might try to squeeze this pair higher on the event so that they may loss their money even if the data is good.

    Second, why i'm choosing the Euro to cross it with USD?
    Here's the reason

    ECB or the Euro eased their policy so this should press the Euro from rallying especially after a large short covering.
    Actually, the main reason the Euro is flying high up because the market is pricing in a 13.5 bps cut or i should say the price around 1.055 already like ECB cut the interest rate by 0.135%
    Since they only cut the interest rate by 0.1%, naturally it will rally since the market dissapointed even if they only extend their qe with this.
    Nevertheless, the reaction itselves is already too much and it shouldn't rally that far.

    Now you guys might be thinking about what the condition in the US as well right? Is the 0.25% interest rate hike already priced in?
    If it is, then when the fed did raise the rate then USD will go bear and there will be a large short covering as well.

    So i'll help you guys to do small calculation and i believe this will help you guys as well during the FOMC meeting.
    It's good if you guys want to learn throughly regarding this but i don't think many members in this forum will even take an interest to my thread anyway; LOL!
    Here it is!

    Now try to take a look at the 99.7775 at December. What does that mean?
    Neutral Interest rate currently in US is 99.87 so that means the position if US did raise interest rate by 0.25% should be
    99.87-0.25 = 99.62
    Since US might raise interest rate in 16th December so the normal rate should start counts from 17th december till 16th January and it should be 99.62 start from that day.

    For checking whether it has priced in or not for this month then;
    (16*(99.87)+15*(99.62))/31 = (1597.92+1494.3)/31 = 99.74
    16 days before raising rate from 1th December till 16th December and then 15 days stands for the rest of the day after US raise their rates.

    So that means if the last 30 d Fed funds from December already reached 99.74 then the market has already pricing in 100% interest rate raise.
    Since the current position is 99.7775 then that means Usd still have room to rally before a large squeeze will happen.

    That is why i use some stop loss in profit in the first picture.
    My trading style is to enter while it's not volatile anymore, watch the data and the news then ensuring that i'm entering at a good price to reduce risk.

    Since i'm entering at the time when USD squeeze might happen, i enter the market with 1000 pips risk management.
    Even so, it's worth it to enter after such a good data.
    When USD will be hard to raise again is when it has started to pricing in 100% rate increase. Just try to wait until a big squeeze happen to re-entry again.

    Hope you guys enjoy my thread and i will be glad to answer any questions here!
    Thanks you.

    And then, this is my trading place



    Ps: i'll update my views and my trades daily here but i'm not sure whether i'll enter the market daily since i'm waiting for the best timing and opportunity & i'm not good at taking photos plus i'm half asleep since i'm very tired.. so please don't creep out from seeing the photos LOL!

    New Update:
    I'm updating what is important for this week and what i'll be watching as well! So when i'm gonna trade next guys? Here it is!


    So.. why is this important? It is because SNB might do the same as the ECB so they might cut the rate
    Now try to look at the Eur/CHF exchange rate.. where is it now? It is around 1.083..
    Actually, the target for the SNB is Eur/Chf around 1.1 so they might weaken the swiss franc in order to get the target.
    So.. is tomorrow the day CHF will weaken? I'm not sure about that as well. If they indeed cut the interest rate then the trade is to buy USD/CHF or buy EUR/CHF. If they did nothing, then EUR/CHF will fall and USD/CHF will fall as well!

    There is a chance they will cut the interest rate but it's not very high!
    Hope you guys can earn as well from here! Happy trading!

    Not allowed!
    Last edited by sekiryutei; 12-09-2015 at 03:22 PM.

  2. #11
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    I'm updating my view regarding USD/JPY for 2016 but still i won't make any position for now.
    I believe even if there is some correction to the upside, it might be limited to 122-123. Further downside is expected from USD/JPY pair unless BOJ increase their QE or money printing program.
    As for USD, i believe it will gain momentum in the beginning of 2016 since the rate hike hasn't been priced in yet.
    But market has priced in 2 more rate hike in 2016. If it goes as fed thought, i think USD still can gain 10% against most pairs.
    If you guys have any question, just ask it!
    I'll welcome any question here!

    Not allowed!

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