Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?
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Thread: Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?

  1. #1
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    Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?

    Trading with certainty : Well the obvious and clear answer for the above question might be a trader should always open trades on certainty. But the problem is that way a trader cannot open a single trade because certainty never exists in our trading. So trading with certainty can only be a fantasy that can be imagined and the only option left to the trader is to trade on probability.

    Trading with probability Every trade can give us profits or losses. There are many factors responsible for the trade to either end up in a profit or end up with a loss. Even after we trade after making proper analysis or after waiting patiently for a good signal given by our indicator or combination of indicators we cannot relax by thinking that now my trade is bound to give me profits. That 100% certainty cannot happen.

    Need of analysis : So now we find that both trades done with analysis and trades done without analysis can give us loss. So now a person may think what is the use of doing analysis if anyway he can end up making a loss? Here is what the role of probability comes


    Probability
    Our trading is always based on probability and never on certainty. If a trader can judge the market movement well and can make good analysis then his trades will have a higher probability of giving profits and lower probability of giving losses. These probability can effect our trading results drastically. A trader whose trades have higher probability of profits will have more profitable trades in his portfolio and more profitable trades simply means more money in his bank. If he could implement a good working risk management system that will boost his overall trading performance positively.

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    Trader Hukam's Avatar
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    That's why I like to speak about trading experience all the time, a good trading experience helps people to get higher probability of gaining profit in this business and they could lose less in the market. Forex trading is a powerful business, there is no doubt in it, but if our trading experience is zero then its very tough to get those higher probabilities of making money in this business.

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    Trader lawners1791's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivanandfx View Post
    But the problem is that way a trader cannot open a single trade because certainty never exists in our trading. So trading with certainty can only be a fantasy that can be imagined and the only option left to the trader is to trade on probability.
    yes those as good trader to enter with the better on preparedness as qualifying the best on use with the decision on working of the good submission of options as requesting of the good exchange on closing the number with the target to complete with each of sequence as entering the trading manage with the series on range with the timelines with the trading terms.

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  4. #4
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    Yes sir you are correct trading on certainty is not possible only it is possible to trade on probability. When there is a trade with higher probability for profits we can go for it. I think just one thing that attracts all the people in the world like a strong magnet : the money.May be traders can have some others attractions but the money is the common first things that bring us into forex trading.

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmitChallenger View Post
    Yes sir you are correct trading on certainty is not possible only it is possible to trade on probability. When there is a trade with higher probability for profits we can go for it. I think just one thing that attracts all the people in the world like a strong magnet : the money.May be traders can have some others attractions but the money is the common first things that bring us into forex trading.
    Forex is an uncertain market and though we can make better predictions by better analysis we cannot achieve complete accuracy. When i was a new trader, i tried a many strategy and indicators and i ended up losing many times. We have to learn to improve our market timing and market analysis, trade to trade well.

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    Trader Hukam's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by forexfighter007 View Post
    Forex is an uncertain market and though we can make better predictions by better analysis we cannot achieve complete accuracy. When i was a new trader, i tried a many strategy and indicators and i ended up losing many times. We have to learn to improve our market timing and market analysis, trade to trade well.
    There is no all winnings trade's formula in this business so mate first of all its necessary to accept losses in trading. As you are saying that by learning regularly we can get a good idea about our trading timing, market analysis, and can do trade well. Its very common to lose money in starting almost all new trader's plenty of time to improve their selves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hukam View Post
    There is no all winnings trade's formula in this business so mate first of all its necessary to accept losses in trading. As you are saying that by learning regularly we can get a good idea about our trading timing, market analysis, and can do trade well. Its very common to lose money in starting almost all new trader's plenty of time to improve their selves.
    Yes sir Losses will always be there but we have to reduce them. Stop loss is there in order to control our loss and to also minimise our risk level. Forex trading is not only about the take profit. Market may move against us at times, and if we forget to put a stop loss we may end up losing everything.

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  8. #8
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    We should trades based on the probability but the count probability, it means we has make a calculation about the probability then we put the decision in forex trading. Learning in forex trading must be so easy from other side of the market. Forex trading must take the all probability not the certainity.

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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abhishekwala View Post
    Yes sir Losses will always be there but we have to reduce them. Stop loss is there in order to control our loss and to also minimise our risk level. Forex trading is not only about the take profit. Market may move against us at times, and if we forget to put a stop loss we may end up losing everything.
    Well, there is nothing wrong in the trading with certainty or probability it depends on the mindset of the trader on the both. If it is about losses, traders would lose, and this thinking of probability would help the trader to cater for the management t be used during losing. Also, it is very good to be certain of the kid that one can make it in trading.

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  10. #10
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    I do not think that there any place for the trading depending on probability . but I think that the trading must contain av very high level of the planning and concentration analyzing . not to use the random choice fro any of the trades we have open . also the trading may be so easy when we [reaper for it .

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