Should we open trades on certainty or on probability? - Page 3
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Thread: Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?

  1. #1
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    Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?

    Trading with certainty : Well the obvious and clear answer for the above question might be a trader should always open trades on certainty. But the problem is that way a trader cannot open a single trade because certainty never exists in our trading. So trading with certainty can only be a fantasy that can be imagined and the only option left to the trader is to trade on probability.

    Trading with probability Every trade can give us profits or losses. There are many factors responsible for the trade to either end up in a profit or end up with a loss. Even after we trade after making proper analysis or after waiting patiently for a good signal given by our indicator or combination of indicators we cannot relax by thinking that now my trade is bound to give me profits. That 100% certainty cannot happen.

    Need of analysis : So now we find that both trades done with analysis and trades done without analysis can give us loss. So now a person may think what is the use of doing analysis if anyway he can end up making a loss? Here is what the role of probability comes


    Probability
    Our trading is always based on probability and never on certainty. If a trader can judge the market movement well and can make good analysis then his trades will have a higher probability of giving profits and lower probability of giving losses. These probability can effect our trading results drastically. A trader whose trades have higher probability of profits will have more profitable trades in his portfolio and more profitable trades simply means more money in his bank. If he could implement a good working risk management system that will boost his overall trading performance positively.

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  2. #21
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    It depends on the trade. Some times the news in the market will be accurate and our analysis will be certain, some times it will not so we have to follow the technical analysis for our trade. So it depends on the trade and the charts to make the trade with certainity or probability

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivanandfx View Post
    Need of analysis : So now we find that both trades done with analysis and trades done without analysis can give us loss. So now a person may think what is the use of doing analysis if anyway he can end up making a loss? Here is what the role of probability comes
    yes those as trader manages the use as occupying choice of the system had with the basics on commons as having of concerns as preparing only the best on precision on entering risks with the market to work of the target to manage on completing stages with the series on arrange to sustains of the length of the good trading terms of the good plan.

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  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by newentry View Post
    take low risk is a good choice for them to get more chances at forex trading to stay, survive and even grow up. but need to have good commitment for this because low risk is equivalent with small profit too but not problems for them who have big capital, 1 % is good enough for make money,
    Of course, there is no certainty in the forex trading, and it would be very bad for the trader to be taking too much risk. I love the trader who take low risk trading, but the risk should not be too low too. I can not be using a risk of 1% as you have said, it is not good for my own trading style. I would use nothing less than 5% risk in my trades.

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  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by cozard007 View Post
    Of course, there is no certainty in the forex trading, and it would be very bad for the trader to be taking too much risk. I love the trader who take low risk trading, but the risk should not be too low too. I can not be using a risk of 1% as you have said, it is not good for my own trading style. I would use nothing less than 5% risk in my trades.
    I also like the idea of low risk trading. I also like traders who always trade with analysis. We dont need lot of time for analysis. It depends on type of traders. for me, i only spend about 10 to 15 minutes per day as i only used daily and hourly time frame. Traders who trade randomly are no good than traders who are doing the gambling trading.

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  6. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Abhishekwala View Post
    I also like the idea of low risk trading. I also like traders who always trade with analysis. We dont need lot of time for analysis. It depends on type of traders. for me, i only spend about 10 to 15 minutes per day as i only used daily and hourly time frame. Traders who trade randomly are no good than traders who are doing the gambling trading.
    Yes sir, low risk trading is good one, it would reduce the tension at which the trader is trading in the market. No amount of the trading system of the trader can do this, and the stress would still be there if the risk is not low. And as you have said it, if this could be working with the higher time frame, the trader would always have a good trading environment.

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  7. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by cozard007 View Post
    Yes sir, low risk trading is good one, it would reduce the tension at which the trader is trading in the market. No amount of the trading system of the trader can do this, and the stress would still be there if the risk is not low. And as you have said it, if this could be working with the higher time frame, the trader would always have a good trading environment.
    Well sir, risk is a relative term for each trader. Forex is the art of trading with proper risk management. As I said before also, it is neither low risk nor high risk that is good. Risk should be what is appropriate for ones trading. For instance we cannot invest 10000$ to open a .01 lot trade so that our risk will be small. The returns would not justify the big investment of money we made. Risk is not about the percentages but what that best suits the trader and he trader should determine this by himself.

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  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by PROPENSITY100 View Post
    Well sir, risk is a relative term for each trader. Forex is the art of trading with proper risk management. As I said before also, it is neither low risk nor high risk that is good. Risk should be what is appropriate for ones trading. For instance we cannot invest 10000$ to open a .01 lot trade so that our risk will be small. The returns would not justify the big investment of money we made. Risk is not about the percentages but what that best suits the trader and he trader should determine this by himself.
    Yes, risk is a relative term and we should be conscious of it in the market all the time. It is only the traders that can manage the risk and the money they have that would get success in the market trading. There are many things that amounts to success though, but the risk and money management are very essential, because forex is never a certainty, it is a probability market.

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  9. #28
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    I think the answer is very clear of the question it self . i do not think that we search between the news and the sites a long time and make many of the anayses type o trade on probabilities in final . but after all the trading has rules and we have to apply all our basics to trade in a very disciplined manner .

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  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivanandfx View Post
    Need of analysis : So now we find that both trades done with analysis and trades done without analysis can give us loss. So now a person may think what is the use of doing analysis if anyway he can end up making a loss? Here is what the role of probability comes
    doing analysis with the selection of trading system, as those gives of chance to gains with the better precision. the use should minimize risks to gives stronger confidence to submit decision and waiting for good returns to close of those with the good profit on exchange. the better to stay with the secure position those helps to sustains of the longer.

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  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by cozard007 View Post
    Yes, risk is a relative term and we should be conscious of it in the market all the time. It is only the traders that can manage the risk and the money they have that would get success in the market trading. There are many things that amounts to success though, but the risk and money management are very essential, because forex is never a certainty, it is a probability market.
    [lang=id]it is a probability but we can make approaches to see the market before take a decision, and at last the traders will know when and how to enter the market and also exit from the market, knowledge will give them the understanding to manage the business to take the advantages from the market[/lang]

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