Should we open trades on certainty or on probability? - Page 2
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Thread: Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?

  1. #1
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    Should we open trades on certainty or on probability?

    Trading with certainty : Well the obvious and clear answer for the above question might be a trader should always open trades on certainty. But the problem is that way a trader cannot open a single trade because certainty never exists in our trading. So trading with certainty can only be a fantasy that can be imagined and the only option left to the trader is to trade on probability.

    Trading with probability Every trade can give us profits or losses. There are many factors responsible for the trade to either end up in a profit or end up with a loss. Even after we trade after making proper analysis or after waiting patiently for a good signal given by our indicator or combination of indicators we cannot relax by thinking that now my trade is bound to give me profits. That 100% certainty cannot happen.

    Need of analysis : So now we find that both trades done with analysis and trades done without analysis can give us loss. So now a person may think what is the use of doing analysis if anyway he can end up making a loss? Here is what the role of probability comes


    Probability
    Our trading is always based on probability and never on certainty. If a trader can judge the market movement well and can make good analysis then his trades will have a higher probability of giving profits and lower probability of giving losses. These probability can effect our trading results drastically. A trader whose trades have higher probability of profits will have more profitable trades in his portfolio and more profitable trades simply means more money in his bank. If he could implement a good working risk management system that will boost his overall trading performance positively.

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  2. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by shivanandfx View Post
    Probability Our trading is always based on probability and never on certainty. If a trader can judge the market movement well and can make good analysis then his trades will have a higher probability of giving profits and lower probability of giving losses. These probability can effect our trading results drastically. A trader whose trades have higher probability of profits will have more profitable trades in his portfolio and more profitable trades simply means more money in his bank. If he could implement a good working risk management system that will boost his overall trading performance positively.
    Our life is not certain thing. Our life is basically on the probability. The knowledge the probability in forex trading is very important thing. I have heard that school in teach the probability in math. I think forex trading can be learn as the knowledge of the probability.

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  3. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hukam View Post
    That's why I like to speak about trading experience all the time, a good trading experience helps people to get higher probability of gaining profit in this business and they could lose less in the market. Forex trading is a powerful business, there is no doubt in it, but if our trading experience is zero then its very tough to get those higher probabilities of making money in this business.
    Gaining regular trading experience essential because as you are saying sir that its good for our future, I am also trying to learning everyday now in this market and spending 2 to 3 hours on good learning. Most important task to control my emotion right now and working upon that. I am reducing my risk than before right now only taking 1% risk in my trade it will give me a lot of margin to do trade in long term trading and will give me less emotion too.

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  4. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Khimi234 View Post
    Gaining regular trading experience essential because as you are saying sir that its good for our future, I am also trying to learning everyday now in this market and spending 2 to 3 hours on good learning. Most important task to control my emotion right now and working upon that. I am reducing my risk than before right now only taking 1% risk in my trade it will give me a lot of margin to do trade in long term trading and will give me less emotion too.
    Trading with 1 percent risk per trade is one of the top decision in this business because it would don't give you any big loss first of all and you would able to recover your losses well from next couple of trades too. My target is also to concentrate on consistency like you mate, I don't spend like 2,3 hours daily on chart I mostly learn on Saturday and Sunday.

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  5. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hukam View Post
    Trading with 1 percent risk per trade is one of the top decision in this business because it would don't give you any big loss first of all and you would able to recover your losses well from next couple of trades too. My target is also to concentrate on consistency like you mate, I don't spend like 2,3 hours daily on chart I mostly learn on Saturday and Sunday.
    take low risk is a good choice for them to get more chances at forex trading to stay, survive and even grow up. but need to have good commitment for this because low risk is equivalent with small profit too but not problems for them who have big capital, 1 % is good enough for make money,

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    Quote Originally Posted by shivanandfx View Post
    Need of analysis : So now we find that both trades done with analysis and trades done without analysis can give us loss. So now a person may think what is the use of doing analysis if anyway he can end up making a loss? Here is what the role of probability comes
    the good supports as trader had with the good possession of system and strategy those leaves of chance on higher with the probability on winning of the good games on compilation, as compounding returns while keeping of good manage on running of continuous arrange with the system evaluation.

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  7. #16
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    We should open trade on the probability, because there is no certain level on the forex trading, but all is the possibility and probabiliy. You can not ensure the trading position on the certain position only. Probability to gain or probabiliy to pain. Heheheh. Keep moving on probability.

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  8. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by newentry View Post
    take low risk is a good choice for them to get more chances at forex trading to stay, survive and even grow up. but need to have good commitment for this because low risk is equivalent with small profit too but not problems for them who have big capital, 1 % is good enough for make money,
    But most chose to trade with higher risk because of impatience. When there is a trade with higher probability for profits we can go for a bit high risk. I think just one thing that attracts all the people in the world like a strong magnet : the money.May be traders can have some others attractions but the money is the common first things that bring us into forex trading.

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  9. #18
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    We should open trades based on making analysis, if we should be able to make analysis then we can make money from forex.

    However, I think it is based on probability but then knowledge and skills with experience will ensure some certainty while we are trading, that is the reason why we need to learn and gain good skills if we can then we can actually have more good and accurate trading results.

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  10. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmitChallenger View Post
    But most chose to trade with higher risk because of impatience. When there is a trade with higher probability for profits we can go for a bit high risk. I think just one thing that attracts all the people in the world like a strong magnet : the money.May be traders can have some others attractions but the money is the common first things that bring us into forex trading.
    Well, this is the market that is full of probability, nothing is perfect in the forex market, and traders should not regard trading or their trading system in any perfect way. We should be trading on probability, and it should occur to us to be using good system and management in case the actual result of our trades do not favour us at any point in time.

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  11. #20
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    Never open the trades on probabilities only open the trades what you see on the charts if chart is saying market is going up then you should trade on the upper side if chart is showing market is going down then you should trade on that so just go will price action not the probabilities at all

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